MoD Expected goals

[oldcolner]

This appeared at the end of the game Chelsea being 1.53 ours being 0.64

This is the explanation but I'm still confused!

"Expected goals" is a metric which assesses every chance, essentially answering the question of whether a player should have scored from a certain opportunity.

Put simply, it is a way of assigning a "quality" value (xG) to every attempt based on what we know about it. The higher the xG - with 1 being the maximum - the more likelihood of the opportunity being taken.

So if a chance is 0.5xG, it should be scored 50% of the time."

Apparently it means we wre very clinical?.

Any whiz kids - some teams got over 2.5. ...but 1 is the maximum??

[Supersub6]

oldcolner --don't worry about it. I am sure it is just another stat that the pundits can fall back on in the event of a game being absolutely dire.
The game has not really changed in the fact that, in spite of stupid offside law changes, VAR, surrounding referees etc., etc ad nauseam, the result still relies on one team scoring more than the other if they want to win. Possession, number of shots, expected goals (whatever that is) count for nothing unless the ball nestles in the back of the net.
It is still a simple game really. ;D

[oldcolner]

Maybe it's a bit like the RBI in American baseball, everyone quotes it but few know what it's about.
The fact that we and Huddersfield won with a lower EG score than our opponents makes it academic though I like the fact we are clinical in our finishing. Few would have scored Sams first and even fewer would have scored Ward blockbuster.

[The Bedlington Terrier]

Maybe it's a bit like the RBI in American baseball, everyone quotes it but few know what it's about.
The fact that we and Huddersfield won with a lower EG score than our opponents makes it academic though I like the fact we are clinical in our finishing. Few would have scored Sams first and even fewer would have scored Ward blockbuster.

I loved the ball Defour dinked right onto Big Sam's napper, the rest was inevitable. Vokesey is now looking to be a constant threat to the opponents' goal, has he finally come of age?

5974

[Altobelli]

Not a lover of these new fangled expressions Colner, The goals for games played for a specific player is good enough for me.

As all this come from the perfect FA or our so called expert pundits ?

[oldcolner]

I think it's a BBC Match of the Day thing and the figure appears in the sequence showing shots, reds and yellows after they showed the game, but no one has mentioned it yet. Probably because it's double Dutch to them too!,;D

There is a list of games and EG figures on here quite a way down though.
It's a metric apparently- I prefer imperial though!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40912926

[Altobelli]

Yes I'm an inch, foot and yard man also.

[oldcolner]

Well now they are being used to say what the result should have been.

We should have lost to Chelsea by 1.56 to 0.63. ;D

'Expected goals' is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match, with every shot taken given an 'expected goal' value based on the difficulty of the attempt.

Based on a number of factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders, the 'expected goal' value reveals the likelihood a specific shot will end in a goal; the higher the value, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot

The 'expected goal' value of every shot in a game is used to calculate the 'expected goals' (xG) of a match. Click here to find out more about the calculations used to work out xG.

Should a team end with a higher xG than actual goals scored, it is probable they were wasteful in front of goal due to poor finishing or an in-form opposition goalkeeper. If the real goals scored is higher than the xG, the team have been lucky to score so many???

Lucky no just class

West Brom 1.27 v Bournemouth 0.47

https://talksport.com/football/expected-goals-how-opening-premier-league-games-should-have-finished-170818250936?p=1

[oldcolner]

Well we beat West Brom on expected goals 1.28 v 0.91 :? Arsenal beat Stoke too.

https://talksport.com/football/expected-goals-stats-experts-reveal-how-premier-league-matchweek-two-games-should-have?p=1