Kevin Nolan completes.....

[MAD_MAGPIE]

A full seasons worth of games in Football Management following today's game at Crawley Town. His record is as follows which include both Notts and Leyton Orient;

P46, W24, D8, L14.

That is the equivalent of 80 points which over a season is a guaranteed playoff spot in any league.

Also he boasts an impressive 52.2% win ratio.

As Notts Manager on its own it's even better;

P31, W17, D6, L8. Win Ratio 54.8%

That is equivalent of 57 points, or 1.84 points per game which over a season would be 85 points. So since the turn of the year when he joined we have consistently displayed automatic promotion form.

Kevin Nolan was Alan Hardys WOW signing.

I think we have a very good young Manager on our hands and long may this continue.

[CmonUSexyStylishPies]

Third best win % in our history, that's pretty damn good.

Cotterill has the best stats but you'd have to day he had better players than Nolan who inherited a team in very poor shape.

It won't be long before clubs higher up come sniffing around, hopefully Hardy can get Nolan signed up on a longer contract.

[pravda_plc]

Third best win % in our history, that's pretty damn good.

Cotterill has the best stats but you'd have to day he had better players than Nolan who inherited a team in very poor shape.

It won't be long before clubs higher up come sniffing around, hopefully Hardy can get Nolan signed up on a longer contract.

But significantly Cotterill didn't bring in a single player to Notts - either permanently or on loan - his stats are based exclusively on other people's signings.

Nolan, by contrast, has basically assembled his own squad last season and this season. His stats will 'sink or swim' by his own decision making and his own signings...

[Big Bob]

Third best win % in our history, that's pretty damn good.

Cotterill has the best stats but you'd have to day he had better players than Nolan who inherited a team in very poor shape.

It won't be long before clubs higher up come sniffing around, hopefully Hardy can get Nolan signed up on a longer contract.
Contracts aren't worth the paper they're written on. A manager will still walk if a better offer elsewhere comes along.

[ancientpie]

Contracts aren't worth the paper they're written on. A manager will still walk if a better offer elsewhere comes along.

Yep, but at least we should get more compo if he's on a long term contract & it does work both ways we would get rid if he didn't do his job, contract or not.

[CmonUSexyStylishPies]

But significantly Cotterill didn't bring in a single player to Notts - either permanently or on loan - his stats are based exclusively on other people's signings.

Nolan, by contrast, has basically assembled his own squad last season and this season. His stats will 'sink or swim' by his own decision making and his own signings...

Cotterill had Hughes, Davies, Schmeichel, Bishop, Ravenhill etc.

I don't think he had it too bad.

[CmonUSexyStylishPies]

Contracts aren't worth the paper they're written on. A manager will still walk if a better offer elsewhere comes along.

Obviously. But if it means we get a big settlement then it's better than nothing.

[SolSigns]

Obviously. But if it means we get a big settlement then it's better than nothing.

True, but I'd rather keep a good manager. Important for the club at this stage.

[navypie]

If a club is found guilty of poaching someone's manager the FA could always award any compensation to themselves , that couldn't happen , could it !!

[jackal2]

Kevin Nolan has made a very promising start to his managerial career. We can't say any more than that at this stage, because he has yet to encounter some of the things managers have to deal with during the course of a long career (like a really bad run of losses), but he certainly seems to have taken a leaf out of Sam Allardyce's book in terms of playing effective football and getting the best out of your playing resources.

[upthemaggies]

With yesterday's game Nolan caught up with Moniz's final tally of 29 league games in charge. Next weekend he'll equal Kiwomya's 30.

Since Sam Allardyce, only two Notts managers have completed two season's worth of games (92 league games in charge), those being Dearden and McP and neither lasted more than one game longer. Allardyce remains as the last Notts boss to take charge of over 100 league games, Warnock is the only other centurion post Sirrel.

Since McP (sacked 8 years ago next month), only one manager has been in charge for 46 games or more, that being Shaun Derry as Curle fell one short, although Derry - despite being in charge for 68 games - didn't steer the club through an actual full season. It would be hugely disappointing if Nolan doesn't see out this campaign and become the first Notts manager to oversee a complete season since McP in 2008/09.

[SolSigns]

With yesterday's game Nolan caught up with Moniz's final tally of 29 league games in charge. Next weekend he'll equal Kiwomya's 30.

Since Sam Allardyce, only two Notts managers have completed two season's worth of games (92 league games in charge), those being Dearden and McP and neither lasted more than one game longer. Allardyce remains as the last Notts boss to take charge of over 100 league games, Warnock is the only other centurion post Sirrel.

Since McP (sacked 8 years ago next month), only one manager has been in charge for 46 games or more, that being Shaun Derry as Curle fell one short, although Derry - despite being in charge for 68 games - didn't steer the club through an actual full season. It would be hugely disappointing if Nolan doesn't see out this campaign and become the first Notts manager to oversee a complete season since McP in 2008/09.

That's a great post. The state of Notts really...

In any another business Nolan would have to achieve something first, but in football just a sniff of success puts him on the Ritz.

I was looking for the stats that someone posted about league position after 10 games and final position, was that also you utm?

[upthemaggies]

That's a great post. The state of Notts really...

In any another business Nolan would have to achieve something first, but in football just a sniff of success puts him on the Ritz.

I was looking for the stats that someone posted about league position after 10 games and final position, was that also you utm?

That must have been somebody else.
We were 5th after ten games last season, although it wasn't until game 14 that we had as many points as we do this season, so perhaps it would make more sense to look at how quickly we reached 19 points in recent seasons where we've looked like challenging for promotion in the early months of the campaign.

The game in which we reached or broke through 19 points & final position
2016/17 (Sheridan) - 14 games, finished 16th
2014/15 (Derry) - 12 games, finished 21st
2012/13 (Curle) - 12 games, finished 12th
2011/12 (Allen) - 10 games, finished 7th
2009/10 (Munto) - 10 games, finished 1st
2005/06 (Thordarsson) - 15 games, finished 21st

So going by those stats, we have much more in common with the Munto and Allen seasons.
We've reached 19 pts in almost half the time it took Sheridan and Thordarsson, so those two campaigns don't really compare. The Derry season may be a more obvious warning as to how things can turn for the worse, but that was of course the season in which Guy Branston was employed, the infamous transfer panel was introduced and Aileen Trew effectively took control.

[SolSigns]

That must have been somebody else.
We were 5th after ten games last season, although it wasn't until game 14 that we had as many points as we do this season, so perhaps it would make more sense to look at how quickly we reached 19 points in recent seasons where we've looked like challenging for promotion in the early months of the campaign.

The game in which we reached or broke through 19 points & final position
2016/17 (Sheridan) - 14 games, finished 16th
2014/15 (Derry) - 12 games, finished 21st
2012/13 (Curle) - 12 games, finished 12th
2011/12 (Allen) - 10 games, finished 7th
2009/10 (Munto) - 10 games, finished 1st
2005/06 (Thordarsson) - 15 games, finished 21st

So going by those stats, we have much more in common with the Munto and Allen seasons.
We've reached 19 pts in almost half the time it took Sheridan and Thordarsson, so those two campaigns don't really compare. The Derry season may be a more obvious warning as to how things can turn for the worse, but that was of course the season in which Guy Branston was employed, the infamous transfer panel was introduced and Aileen Trew effectively took control.

Right, and compared to 8 games by Nolan this season.

Also shows how good Martin Allen's start was.

I've always thought that after the new year game you have a fair indication of how teams are really doing, but someone posted some interesting figures on beginning v final positions. I've looked through too many old mad posts now for one day, and I can't find them. They seemed to show a pretty clear correlation between the top six club's position after (I think 10) games, and their final positions. I'd work it out myself if I could find the numbers for 'L2 table after 10 games over the last 10 years', but I couldn't quickly and need to face time the inlawyers right now :P

[MancMagpie]

Kevin Nolan has made a very promising start to his managerial career. We can't say any more than that at this stage, because he has yet to encounter some of the things managers have to deal with during the course of a long career (like a really bad run of losses), but he certainly seems to have taken a leaf out of Sam Allardyce's book in terms of playing effective football and getting the best out of your playing resources.

Yep. This. I reckon he's learnt loads from Big Sam. Can't be a bad thing....Big Sam is the only England manager with a 100% win ratio after all! :)

[irishpete]

Lets hope all he has learnt from him was on the pitch &, not off it.

[Frigiliana Pie 1]

That's a great post. The state of Notts really...

In any another business Nolan would have to achieve something first, but in football just a sniff of success puts him on the Ritz.

I was looking for the stats that someone posted about league position after 10 games and final position, was that also you utm?

I think what you're looking for is post 120 on the Match Thread for the Port Vale game.

[Old_pie]

I think what you're looking for is post 120 on the Match Thread for the Port Vale game.

What I think Frigiliana meant was to be helpful and post a link

http://boards.footymad.net/showthread.php?t=38201200&page=6

[upthemaggies]

Last season Mansfield Town had 19 points after 15 games played (which was the last week of October) and they were just three points adrift of the play offs in 13th place. So it looks as though we have a very comfortable cushion, the players should be able to play without feeling as though they are under any pressure. A mere 7 points from the next 7 games (relegation form) would put us on 26 pts from 15 played, last season you would have been 4th after 15 games with 26 pts. So we ought to still be there or there abouts going into the xmas period which makes it easier to attract new recruits in January.
I think it does help to be 2nd rather than 1st at this stage as you've still got something to aim for rather than looking over your shoulder.

[SolSigns]

What I think Frigiliana meant was to be helpful and post a link

http://boards.footymad.net/showthread.php?t=38201200&page=6

Thanks, both. All the stats are interesting at the end of that fred, but the set I thought was most unexpected was 60years:


In each of the last 4 seasons, 4 teams who were in the top 7 after 5 games finished in the top 7 at the end of the season.

Of those 16 teams over the 4 seasons, 8 won automatic promotion and 8 reached the play-offs

= the teams in the top 7 after 5 games are significantly more likely to be in the mix at the end of the season. I wish I knew how he got the figures for that, but I wonder if they also show that a team's position after 10 games is an even more reliable indicator.

Not cast iron obviously, and the Derry/Abbott season shows how an early high position can mask underlying flaws, but still. If I was a betting man, I'd think carefully about the early season positions. As it is, I feel even more confident about my prediction that Nolo's Notts will get second place this season! UPIES!

[Pie_Scribe]

The big problem with Derry's start was that the quality in the team pretty much all came from loans, and they were all up in January. The players that did well got better offerings in January, and the old quantity over quality approach was used to fill the spaces, hence the inevitable ending to it all.
I'm not going to get my hopes up TOO much just yet though, but I do think we're in a better position this year. We've got a manager who's worked hard on putting a fighting spirit into a team many saw as beyond hope, and who's put just the right amount of strengthening into the squad, apart from up front, which is probably the hardest slot to fill when you're after real quality. Most importantly though, the few loans we have are season long, so there shouldn't be any chance of someone snapping them up halfway through the season.
Overall, I think we're in with a chance, if things keep going as they have. We had a shaky start, but the players got what they needed to turn it around, and quick, and get one of our best runs in a while. It could all go wrong at any time, of course, as it can for any team at any point, but I'm going to enjoy it while it lasts, and hope that my finances allow me to get down the lane to experience it in person for a change.

[SolSigns]

hope that my finances allow me to get down the lane to experience it in person for a change.

Oh, I hear that. The last game I went to (Plymouth at home last season) cost me nearly £5,000!

[60YearsAPie]

Thanks, both. All the stats are interesting at the end of that fred, but the set I thought was most unexpected was 60years:

= the teams in the top 7 after 5 games are significantly more likely to be in the mix at the end of the season. I wish I knew how he got the figures for that, but I wonder if they also show that a team's position after 10 games is an even more reliable indicator.

Not cast iron obviously, and the Derry/Abbott season shows how an early high position can mask underlying flaws, but still. If I was a betting man, I'd think carefully about the early season positions. As it is, I feel even more confident about my prediction that Nolo's Notts will get second place this season! UPIES!

Here's the top 7 after 10 games for the last 4 seasons and where they finished after 46 games.

The team in 2nd after 10 games didn't make the top 2 at the end of any season, although they did make the play-offs.

6556

[SolSigns]

Good work that man! Where are you getting the figures from, 60?

My maths is rubbish, but if you take the 13/14 season as an outlier, then the teams in the top 7 after 10 games have a 70% chance of a shot at promotion - greater if you factor in automatic promotion, but that's a bit beyond me :P

All that said, this is Notts we're talking about and we've got two difficult games before we get to 10.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

Some good stats and topics covered on this thread so thanks to those who have contributed from my original post thus far. I wanted to highlight the point that Kevin Nolan has done a very good job for us so far and to show people that he has been the best signing we have made this year. He will be the last person to get carried away by anything.

I think with us Notts fans we've seen that many false starts it's good in a way that we remain cautiously optimistic at this stage. For me it tends to turn badly for us when the clocks go back like last season and the Derry season.

The four clean sheets for me is massive. I'd like to know how far back it is that we achieved a run like that. How long and how many years have myself and others on this board been bemoaning about conceding two goals a game.

Ultimately this good run will come to an end and then that will be the test as to how we bounce back. But in the meantime let's enjoy collecting points and get nearer to the magic 50 points first.