Boom or Bust - doing the maths

[ClashCityRocker]

St Mirren have 12 matches left and United have 14.

United have 40 points, 14 points behind St Mirren, but we have two games in hand.

Doing the maths, if St Mirren can win their next 9 games they have won the league ( perhaps less if United drop any points ). United are also way behind in goal difference.

United have played 22 games and have 40 points, so it's very hard to imagine they can collect the full 42 points from their remaining matches.

So, mathematically, St Mirren will win the league if they win 9 of their remaining 12 games, they can afford to lose 3 games ( probably more as United will struggle to win 14 games in a row ).

The next discussion will be if we can win the first leg of the play offs and who we would want in the 2nd leg.

BTW, it's possible my maths is wrong, I am no whizz kid at doing the fiqures.

[Charlie arab]

The league is all but gone, would take a total collapse from the saints which isn't likely. Holding on to 2nd spot is crucial , if we can do that then who knows what can happen in play offs.

[smirky4]

The league is all but gone, would take a total collapse from the saints which isn't likely. Holding on to 2nd spot is crucial , if we can do that then who knows what can happen in play offs.

^^^^^^This all day long

We just need to keep players fit and take one game at a time and get prepared for the play offs

[LSArab]

United are averaging below 2 points per match this season which is pretty poor and won’t win any league.

Even if we increased that to 2 points per match then over 14 matches that is 28 points.

St Midden therefore, even if United improved on their record this season are only needing to win about 5 more matches to win the league.

In short the league is over. Well done to Jack Ross who has taken a team almost relegated last season to promotion as champions

We need to pull out all the stops and get up in the play offs.

Second place will be important

[tHeArAb]

St. Mirren have won the league.

No Maths required.

[shedboy71]

The league is all but gone, would take a total collapse from the saints which isn't likely. Holding on to 2nd spot is crucial , if we can do that then who knows what can happen in play offs.

on recent view - we cant.

[shedka]

We were averaging enough points for a title battle until the two injuries which have mucked up or season

Second is all we need to concentrate on as the only hope we have in the play-offs is having two ties to negotiate instead of three like last season (where we just came up short in the 2nd half of the 2nd leg of the 3rd tie after having a stonewall pen denied in the 1st leg)

[GUNBOAT]

ST Mirren have 2 things going for them,a very good manager and Lewis Morgan.In the summer when i said they were a major threat to us Smed's joked about me being a supporter of the Saints when in actual fact i hate the barsteward's with a passion for two very different Scottish Cup ties.
The last two summer's which both belonged to Ray were a disaster,loads of no10's then load's of heartless failure's.Its FN shocking that ST Mirren with a journeyman squad barring Morgan are so far ahead of us.Let's be really honest here this was the easiest season in years to go up as champion's,this may well have happened if McKinnon was binned in the summer but the worst chairman in the history of our club decided to prolong the agony,FACT.

[GUNBOAT]

We were averaging enough points for a title battle until the two injuries which have mucked up or season

Second is all we need to concentrate on as the only hope we have in the play-offs is having two ties to negotiate instead of three like last season (where we just came up short in the 2nd half of the 2nd leg of the 3rd tie after having a stonewall pen denied in the 1st leg)

Did we have any major injuries before the early season game in Paisley when were thrashed ?.

[shedka]

Did we have any major injuries before the early season game in Paisley when were thrashed ?.

Not really relevant to the form we showed post McKinnon until the injuries where we quite clearly had found our best side and system, but you knew that anyway

From Dumbarton away until Livi at home at looked like a team that could go the distance, those two injuries have messed that up FACT as you like to say

[GUNBOAT]

So in your opinion the two major injuries explain away the 6-1 thrashing fae a team that couldna win a game to save themselves?.

[GUNBOAT]

BTW the same team then go and get hammered by a bunch of hammer throwers in the highland's a few days later!.Lets face it Falkirk are absolutely shyte and they gave us 6,that cannie be blamed on 2 players being injured.

[shedka]

No because again as you know, the personnel was a good bit different than just those two, other players missing from the team that was beating most teams (including St Mirren and Falkirk comfortably) and the whole mood and vibe around the team was aswell, all things already known

No excuse for ever losing like that, I blame the players for the margin of defeat

[shedka]

Anyway back on topic, 2nd is the best we can do now and give it our all in the play-offs, maybe we will find some kind of team and system that works with what we have available and you never know, that's best case scenario

[GUNBOAT]

Anyway back on topic, 2nd is the best we can do now and give it our all in the play-offs, maybe we will find some kind of team and system that works with what we have available and you never know, that's best case scenario

Aye sorry mate no having a go at you but this was a pish easy season to go up with the early season implosion of the relegated side and Falkirk,i cannie believe a team with Samson in the goal are a street ahead of us but i watched their players throwing themselves in harm's way to defend him when they were under the cosh at East End Park.
They have a camaraderie that we just cannot match in my opinion.

[shedboy71]

Aye sorry mate no having a go at you but this was a pish easy season to go up with the early season implosion of the relegated side and Falkirk,i cannie believe a team with Samson in the goal are a street ahead of us but i watched their players throwing themselves in harm's way to defend him when they were under the cosh at East End Park.
They have a camaraderie that we just cannot match in my opinion.

Thats it in a nutshell.

[shedboy71]

No because again as you know, the personnel was a good bit different than just those two, other players missing from the team that was beating most teams (including St Mirren and Falkirk comfortably) and the whole mood and vibe around the team was aswell, all things already known

No excuse for ever losing like that, I blame the players for the margin of defeat


100%

[Chick A Saw]

Ive not checked your maths, but we need some of those teams behind us to do us favours in their chase for playoff place 2, 3, 4. And i just dont think that St Mirren will slip up enough to give us enough hope. To make matters worse, they are at Livi, then host Brechin and Falkirk before they come to us in March 2nd.

For us, we might have one match re-arranged before we visit Livi then host QotS, but by that Livi game, i fear there will be an insurmountable chasm to climb across and for me, the league will be as well as lost!

As for making the playoffs, i was shot down last season for daring to think that, while still in 3rd place that 2 teams outside the top 4 could catch us. Im glad this season that im not the first to call into question our chances of staying in the top 4!

[ClashCityRocker]

It's humiliating to think United have lost the league with still 14 matches to go.

The players have been out played and out-fought by clubs such as Livingstone and Falkirk.

We were losing matches with a full squad of players before anyone was injured ........

If we can hit form and finish 2nd, we still have a slim chance.

But the players have been miles off form and it's cost United the league.

[Chick A Saw]

It's humiliating to think United have lost the league with still 14 matches to go.

The players have been out played and out-fought by clubs such as Livingstone and Falkirk.

We were losing matches with a full squad of players before anyone was injured ........

If we can hit form and finish 2nd, we still have a slim chance.

But the players have been miles off form and it's cost United the league.

There was a thread recently where the list of injured might have made a half decent team. But at no point this season have we not had someone missing through injury, especially for the league games. Outside of FnF, Keatings, Briels, Scobbie, Murdoch, Flood, N'Koyi(yeah i know!), Toshney, Quinn, Edje and Stanton have at times been missing through injury.

One thing that our mini break may help with is getting some of these guys up to speed at the right time as we will need all hands at the pump should St Mirren slip up a bit.

[Daly9]

It’s all but over but the current gap could be cut to 5 if United were to do their job for once and win both games in hand and beat St Mirren at Tannadice.

By time they come to us on the 2nd they’ll have played another 3 fixtures (Livingston away, Brechin home and home to Falkirk) whilst we’ll have only played 2 (away to Livingston and home to Queens). If we pick up 6 points, they only have to draw 1 and it becomes interesting again but suspect we’ve left ourselves with too much work to do.

[darrenshedtastic]

United need get to the form before new year if they want any chance of catching saints.

we need to win the games in hand and beat saints when they come to tannadice but isnt out of the question but its whether united can be reliable enough to win them games. if we can win the 2 games before st mirren then it could give us a shout of pulling it off.

they still have some tough games plus they havent it a bad run yet so if they hit it now it could open the door for us to take advantage but as said previously, we need to get back to the form when CL first came in to get anywhere near capitalizing on any slips.

[LSArab]

We should have the games in hand ASAP so we know where we are and we can stop the gap getting too big.

Ultimately though I can’t see we have any chance at all of catching the midden

I don’t think injuries can be blamed for this. It’s a complete collapse really.

This is weakest championship for years

We have better personnel and a better squad than the rest of the division.

With better team spirit and togetherness we should have come through to win this league. Not so far behind by end of January that the league was effectively over

[stokearab]

There was a thread a wee while back where some posters were getting stick for saying there was a west coast bias. Do you think St Mirren would have had to wait this long for dates of rearranged fixtures? No way. We will get Wednesday Saturday Wednesday before we have to play them. It stinks.

Thats not the reason we won't win the league, but it still stinks

[pertharab]

There was a thread a wee while back where some posters were getting stick for saying there was a west coast bias. Do you think St Mirren would have had to wait this long for dates of rearranged fixtures? No way. We will get Wednesday Saturday Wednesday before we have to play them. It stinks.

Thats not the reason we won't win the league, but it still stinks

Exactly what I have just posted on a parallel thread.

[stokearab]

Exactly what I have just posted on a parallel thread.

Sorry mate I'll go over and have a read

[pertharab]

We should have the games in hand ASAP so we know where we are and we can stop the gap getting too big.

Ultimately though I can’t see we have any chance at all of catching the midden

I don’t think injuries can be blamed for this. It’s a complete collapse really.

This is weakest championship for years

We have better personnel and a better squad than the rest of the division.

With better team spirit and togetherness we should have come through to win this league. Not so far behind by end of January that the league was effectively over

Def problem with the fixtures but I agree that it is the weakest championship in years and that theoretically we have the best squad. Heaven help us if we dont go up this year. Lets say we dont and Partick,Dundee or St. Johnstone say came down and Raith and Ayr come up. Even worse if we dont make the play off final two could come down with say Livi going up. We could be in a much much harder division but with less resources if we end up in money difficulties. Just pray we get up through the play offs.

[geofoxposse]

I actually think a period of 2 games a week will be good as the training ground isn't working and 'in match' practice with a regular timetable may work better, use the other days of the week to build strength and fitness and ask the players to meet to find out their names.