Updated table and permutations after Gillingham game

[Nardendee]

Tuesday 17th April - Results
—————————————
Bradford City 3-1 PORTSMOUTH
Gillingham 0-1 ROTHERHAM
SHREWSBURY 0-2 CHARLTON
WIGAN 1-0 Oxford

UPDATED TABLE:
1. Wigan played 42 points 90 GD + 55
2. Blackburn played 42 points 87 GD + 39
3. Shrewsbury played 42 points 82 GD + 20
4. Rotherham played 43. points 73 GD + 18
5. Charlton played 43 points 65 GD + 6
6. S****horpe played 42 points 64 GD + 10
7. Plymouth played 41 - points 64 GD + 5
8. Portsmouth played 43 points 63 GD + 2
9. Peterboro played 42 points 61 GD + 12


Promotion : any 2 from 3. Wigan, Blackburn or Shrewsbury

GAMES LEFT - TOP 3
——————————-
Wigan 4 games left - 1 at home. 3 away
Home : Wimbledon
Away : Fleetwood, Bristol R & Doncaster
Current points 90. Max 102
———————————————————-
Blackburn 4 games left - 2 at home 2 away.
Home : PETERBORO & Oxford
Away : Doncaster & CHARLTON
Current Points 87. Max 99
—————————————————————
Shrewsbury 4 games left - 3 at home & 1 away.
Home: Bury, PETERBORO & MK Dons
Away : Blackpool
Current points 82. Max 94
—————————————————————
Play offs - one of the top 3 + realistically 3 from the following 6 teams:

GAMES LEFT- CHASING PACK
——————————————

Rotherham 3 games left - 2 home & 1 away
Home : Bristol R & Blackpool
Away : PLYMOUTH
Current Points 73. Max 82
————————————————————-
Charlton. 3 games left - 1 home & 2 away
Home : BLACKBURN
Away: PORTSMOUTH & Rochdale
Current Points 65. Max 74
———————————————————-
S****horpe 4 games left- 3 at home & 1 away
Home : Walsall, PLYMOUTH & Bradford
Away : MK Dons
Current Points 64.. Max 76.
—————————————————————
Plymouth games left - 1 at home & 4 away
Home : ROTHERHAM
Away : Northampton, S****HORPE,Rochdale
& Gillingham
Current Points 64. Max 79
———————————————————-
Portsmouth 3 games left - 2 home & 1 away
Home : CHARLTON & PETERBOROUGH
Away : Bury
Current Points 63. Max 72
—————————————————————
Peterborough. 4 games left - 1 home & 3 away
Home : Fleetwood
Away : BLACKBURN, SHREWSBURY
& PORTSMOUTH
Current Points 61. Max 73
—————————————————————

Key fixtures to look out for over next 7 days involving above teams: (top 9 teams in BOLD) are:

Thursday 19th April
—————————-
BLACKBURN v PETERBOROUGH (live on Sky)

Saturday 21st April
—————————
Fleetwood v WIGAN
Northampton v PLYMOUTH
PORTSMOUTH v CHARLTON
ROTHERHAM v Bristol Rovers
S****HORPE v Walsall
SHREWSBURY v Bury

Tuesday 24th April
—————————
Bristol Rovers v WIGAN
Doncaster v BLACKBURN
Rochdale v PLYMOUTH
SHREWSBURY v PETERBOROUGH

What does this mean for us :

PORTSMOUTH can no longer catch us.
PETERBORO can only equal our total and could only overhaul us if we lost our last 3 games and they won their last 4. However unlikely, should this happen they would also make up the current 6 goal deficit.

Looking at their remaining fixtures they still have to play PORTSMOUTH away so a dropped point there and they couldn’t catch us. As they also have both Shrewsbury and Blackburn away, the latter being on Thursday (live on Sky) so anything other than a win & they can’t catch us.

That would seem to leave 4 teams fighting for 3 places (considering Shrewsbury are already qualified)
Ourselves

Charlton can only get 1 more point than we have now.
Plymouth can get 6 points more than we have now
S****horpe can get 3 more points than we have now.

However :
Charlton still have to play Blackburn at home and Portsmouth away.

Plymouth still have to play us at Home Park and also visit S****horpe

S****horpe are at home to Plymouth.

This does not include the other banana skin games.
Charlton’s other game is at Rochdale, who are fighting for their lives so hardly a gimme.

Plymouth still have (in addition to our visit) have to visit Rochdale & this Saturday visit Northampton who are in last chance saloon.

S****horpe on paper have the easiest run in but two of their other games are against teams with something to play for.
At home to Walsall and away at MK Dons.

In summary we need 3 points to be sure but in reality 1 point should be enough, bearing in mind we have a 12 goal difference advantage over Charlton so save for a major swing in the last 3 games one point would mean the lowest we could finish would be 6th.

Of course we might not need another point if Charlton don’t win at Portsmouth at the weekend.

If this happens we will travel to Plymouth on Saturday week having already qualified.

[Nardendee]

This is the latest update. Just keeping it near the top

[sota]

Wonderful info mate, thanks so much for all your effort in compiling all this, it's very helpful indeed UTM :-)

[ragingpup]

These updates on the run in have been brill mate. Thanks for all your effort.

[wrinkly]

Excellent stats.
We only need 2 points to be absolutely sure though, not 3

[frogmiller]

Thanks Nardendee :star:

[Ericsladkilnhurst]

Portsmouth versus Charlton is the big game this weekend, a game Portsmouth have to win, Charlton's win at Shrewsbury brought them back into the chasing pack, after only picking up 1 point out of a possible 9, during a 3 no win run.

[Nardendee]

Thank you all.

Charlton fail to win at Pompey on Saturday we are in the play offs.
We draw on Saturday irrespective of what anyone else does- we are in the play offs barring a 12 goal swing.
Personally I believe we are already there .....ssshhh don’t tell the players though we don’t want any easing off. Besides we don’t want to drop below 4th.

Irrespective of what happens from now on Warney & co. have done fantastic this year and completely turned it around. Brilliant job.

Not that I am expecting this, but should the impossible happen & we go up, it will be a first.

By that I mean the 3 sides that came down last season would be the same 3 going up. That would be absolutely staggering and possibly never repeated.