O/T:- Votes, scores and first past the post predictions 12.12.2019

[ncfcog]

650 in play, 326 needed for outright majority.

Conservative: 311 (+13)
Labour: 218 (-26)
SNP: 33 (-2)
Lib Dems: 28 (+8)
DUP: 10 (no change)
Greens: 2 (+1)
Speaker: 1 (no change)
Others: 47

Close but no cigar for Bojo and the blues. Red flag flying half mast. Swinson’s Lib Dem’s declare victory after massive gains (lol). Seat not contested in Chorley.

Country remains in a state of flux with another minority government.

[Elite_Pie]

A very interesting prediction topic, if like me you enjoy the OT political posts on here. I can only see two possibilities, we either get a Tory majority or a hung parliament. Sadly I think a lot depends on alliances on this one. If the Tories and the Brexit party can reach some sort of agreement I think a Tory majority is very likely, but Nigel and Boris have such enormous egos it might not happen. At the moment I think the other parties might be a bit cleverer, resulting in a hung parliament which isn't good, but nowhere near as bad as the likes of obnoxious turds like Johnson, Gove and Rees-Mogg being given a mandate. Much depends now on which party does the least self-harm.

[Glad2BeAPie]

Tory majority or a hung parliament.
Yep they should all be hung

[queenslandpie]

More concerned about if the bats are going to eat my mangoes to be honest.

[Elite_Pie]

More concerned about if the bats are going to eat my mangoes to be honest.

Understandable. I've never shown any interest in the Australian elections.

[navypie]

A very interesting prediction topic, if like me you enjoy the OT political posts on here. I can only see two possibilities, we either get a Tory majority or a hung parliament. Sadly I think a lot depends on alliances on this one. If the Tories and the Brexit party can reach some sort of agreement I think a Tory majority is very likely, but Nigel and Boris have such enormous egos it might not happen. At the moment I think the other parties might be a bit cleverer, resulting in a hung parliament which isn't good, but nowhere near as bad as the likes of obnoxious turds like Johnson, Gove and Rees-Mogg being given a mandate. Much depends now on which party does the least self-harm.
Thank goodness we have Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott waiting for a mandate.

[Elite_Pie]

Thank goodness we have Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott waiting for a mandate.

Ahh, the politics of a simpleton. Lets's sit back and meekly accept proven bad, because the alternative is probably bad.

I hope your shipmates had more balls than you.

[BigFatPie]

Good topic but a bit early! Even if the Tories have scored 5 own goals in the first 5 minutes of campaigning.

Reserving the right to amend but I’ll say

Tories 290
Labour 230
Libs 50
The rest

[Notts78]

Ahh, the politics of a simpleton. Lets's sit back and meekly accept proven bad, because the alternative is probably bad.

I hope your shipmates had more balls than you.

I like Johnson. Made sweeter by the fact you don’t like him.

[navypie]

Ahh, the politics of a simpleton. Lets's sit back and meekly accept proven bad, because the alternative is probably bad.

I hope your shipmates had more balls than you.
Some you could ask, some you could not.

[Elite_Pie]

I like Johnson. Made sweeter by the fact you don’t like him.


I'm glad my opinion has so much influence on yours!

[navypie]

Ahh, the politics of a simpleton. Lets's sit back and meekly accept proven bad, because the alternative is probably bad.

I hope your shipmates had more balls than you.


Some you could ask, some you could not.
Not like you to reply.

[navypie]

I like Johnson. Made sweeter by the fact you don’t like him.
One of my favourite posts.........ever.

[ncfcog]

Good topic but a bit early! Even if the Tories have scored 5 own goals in the first 5 minutes of campaigning.

Reserving the right to amend but I’ll say

Tories 290
Labour 230
Libs 50
The rest

Yeah I did wonder if I was a bit previous but then thought it would be a good thread to track and change predictions as party campaigns start to gather momentum and the opinion polls start to kick in.

[Elite_Pie]

One of my favourite posts.........ever.

As I said to the other bloke, I'm glad my opinion has so much influence on yours!

[navypie]

Some you could ask, some you could not.


Ahh, the politics of a simpleton. Lets's sit back and meekly accept proven bad, because the alternative is probably bad.

I hope your shipmates had more balls than you.


As I said to the other bloke, I'm glad my opinion has so much influence on yours!
Thanks for the ONE response. Well, the dog needs a companion in the morning. Nite nite.

[Old_pie]

Yeah I did wonder if I was a bit previous but then thought it would be a good thread to track and change predictions as party campaigns start to gather momentum and the opinion polls start to kick in.

Graphs and stats please, with a swingometer.

[magpie_mania]

I like Johnson. Made sweeter by the fact you don’t like him.
What do you like about Johnson?

[ncfcog]

Graphs and stats please, with a swingometer.

Already trying to think of an algorithm that predicts the outcome based on opinion polls. I’ll see what I can do XD

[Elite_Pie]

What do you like about Johnson?

I'd be interested to hear the answer to that, because after a great deal of thought I can only think of one plus point for Boris Johnson.

He isn't Michael Gove.

[queenslandpie]

Understandable. I've never shown any interest in the Australian elections.

And neither should you as our political situation is also fairly desperate with lethargic leadership and consensus politics prevailing. We also have almost zero influence on the world stage other than in cricket and rugby league and sometimes swimming. However I am still a British citizen and have a vote. I just can't abide any of the available parties to vote for, for the usual myriad of reasons and as such I think I will spoil or maybe even soil my ballot paper. I am genuinley dumfounded about the country I left and the political state it is in. It does vindicate my abscence though and I doubt I am missed I was a pretty ordinary resident.

[Old_pie]

I am genuinley dumfounded about the country I left and the political state it is in. It does vindicate my abscence though and I doubt I am missed I was a pretty ordinary resident.

I seem to remember being similarly disaffected when I arrived in Australia in the early 70s. UK with its strikes and the laughing stock of Europe and financial bail-outs. The Whitlam saga and over-egotistical State Premiers of which Queensland's was amongst the worst. And of course voting was compulsory. I guess politicians are mainly just sh1t.

[navypie]

I'd be interested to hear the answer to that, because after a great deal of thought I can only think of one plus point for Boris Johnson.

He isn't Michael Gove.
Or Jezza Cor-bin In other news, Tom Watson stands down for personal not political reasons.Yeah, and I'm a Forest fan.

[ncfcog]

So it wouldn't be like me to start a thread without some graphs so here's a simple one for starters.

Latest YouGov voting intention poll from 4th November.

*Because the SNP and Plaid Cymru only campaign in Scotland and Wales respectively, the margins of error for their support across GB is likely to be less than +/- 1% so I have not included them in the figures at this time. Happy to stick them in there if anyone would prefer it.

14256

Hopefully this will keep OldPie happy ;D

[ncfcog]

Just to be clear YouGov will not be my only source of info, I will as time goes by post results from a variety of polls and look to try and determine averages as well as constituant voting intentions as and when data becomes available.

[i961pie]

Or Jezza Cor-bin In other news, Tom Watson stands down for personal not political reasons.Yeah, and I'm a Forest fan.

On the first day of the campaign the Tories looked like they were commiting political suicide with the Rees Mogg and Cleverly grenfell comments and then the Welsh guy having to resign for lying, and then being accused of doctoring a Kier Starmer interview.
Then today the deputy leader and moderate voice of the Labour party Tom Watson says he isn't standing, a former Labour politician and member of 35 years Ian Austin is saying Corbyn is not fit to be prime minister and to vote for Boris. Then another one who's been suspended for anti semetic comments is going to stand as a independent against labour. And also the woman selected by the local party members
in Bassetlaw to represent them has been told by the chief executive she won't the allowed to.
Then the lib dems have been accused of lying on their pamphlets, you couldn't make it up.
Harold Wilson once said a week is a long time in politics it seems like a day is now.

[Old_pie]

So it wouldn't be like me to start a thread without some graphs so here's a simple one for starters.

Latest YouGov voting intention poll from 4th November.

*Because the SNP and Plaid Cymru only campaign in Scotland and Wales respectively, the margins of error for their support across GB is likely to be less than +/- 1% so I have not included them in the figures at this time. Happy to stick them in there if anyone would prefer it.

14256

Hopefully this will keep OldPie happy ;D

Well it's a start but a bit basic. It could be done as per your league table, by date so that change can be monitored over the weeks, a finishing line target for an outright win; plus the number of floating and not interested voters and then split into Brexit, Scottish Independence etc. Really needs to be multi-dimensional.

On the other hand - I'd get on with the Christmas shopping if I were you.

[Lullapie]

Tory majority or a hung parliament.
Yep they should all be hung

Surely you mean hanged.

[ncfcog]

Well it's a start but a bit basic. It could be done as per your league table, by date so that change can be monitored over the weeks, a finishing line target for an outright win; plus the number of floating and not interested voters and then split into Brexit, Scottish Independence etc. Really needs to be multi-dimensional.

On the other hand - I'd get on with the Christmas shopping if I were you.

Yes that was very basic but was just starting to play with it. Gathering the data for all of the facets you mention will be the biggest challenge but agree a timeline graph would be a good indicator with targets. I am currently analysing polls from before the last two elections to see how that transferred to actual votes to see if I can come up with a prediction formula.

Just got to ensure it doesn't interfere with my day job!

[TSANHO]

The Labour party will win this election with help from the SNP in return for another Scottish independence referendum.

What're odds on that one?

[sidders]

Politicians and politics are neither better nor worse than they were in this country in the last 50 years. What's different is social and press media. In the 1960's all kinds of political and personal intrigue occurred, but only a small percentage was made public. Then people didn't lay bare their souls like they do today and cameras weren't pointed up people's noses.
That said, what a s h i t choice we have. I am now unashamedly pro-EU and have three choices - Green (more honest but likely to be tiny and therefore ineffective), Lib Dem (Swinson!) & Labour (who are ya?)
The result? Bozo to get his 'mandate' quite comfortably. Why? Mainly because he smiles a lot and gives the impression of being cool and in control. If you want the truth about that one, type in Boris and Max Hastings (for many years his boss) and see why he's not to be trusted.
So how can I say Bozo will win? Because as a Notts fan I'm used to there being a gulf between what I want to happen and what I expect
to happen.
So a Bozo overall majority of 20 with the only note of comfort being the subsequent resignation of Corbyn and the delight of a Labour leadership contest - Thornberry, Abbott, Wrong-Daily, anyone? After all, Jezzer says it should be a woman!

[Elite_Pie]

So it wouldn't be like me to start a thread without some graphs so here's a simple one for starters.

Latest YouGov voting intention poll from 4th November.

*Because the SNP and Plaid Cymru only campaign in Scotland and Wales respectively, the margins of error for their support across GB is likely to be less than +/- 1% so I have not included them in the figures at this time. Happy to stick them in there if anyone would prefer it.

14256

Hopefully this will keep OldPie happy ;D

There is a good 'poll of polls' graph covering 2019 on the BBC website. It's interesting that back in July there wasn't a lot between the Tories, Labour, Brexit party and LibDems. As I predicted at the time we are now back to where we've been for ages, two party politics:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197

[countygump]

I'd be interested to hear the answer to that, because after a great deal of thought I can only think of one plus point for Boris Johnson.

He isn't Michael Gove.

He isn't Corbyn or McDonnell either which is even better.

[ncfcog]

There is a good 'poll of polls' graph covering 2019 on the BBC website. It's interesting that back in July there wasn't a lot between the Tories, Labour, Brexit party and LibDems. As I predicted at the time we are now back to where we've been for ages, two party politics:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197

Thanks Elite, I bookmarked this page earlier so glad I'm not alone in finding it useful.

[Old_pie]

In addition to the graphs I'd like to see some references to the "money tree" that's been found. Have both parties found the same tree or is one of a more fruitful species than the other? I try to keep up with Science and Technology but this one has passed me by, though I've have got a bit behind on fairy stories.

[ncfcog]

In addition to the graphs I'd like to see some references to the "money tree" that's been found. Have both parties found the same tree or is one of a more fruitful species than the other? I try to keep up with Science and Technology but this one has passed me by, though I've have got a bit behind on fairy stories.

It’s the same old magic money tree as before, you know, the one that leaves us common folk pulling rabbits out of hats that have seen better days.

[AltyPie]

It’s the same old magic money tree as before, you know, the one that leaves us common folk pulling rabbits out of hats that have seen better days.

It’s not just money trees. When it comes to elections, any party that’s not Labour these days needs to be worried about letter boxes and things resembling them.
When it comes to the “postal voting factories” Richard Mawrey warned of in 2015, Labour certainly do own the means of production.

[Lullapie]

There is a good 'poll of polls' graph covering 2019 on the BBC website. It's interesting that back in July there wasn't a lot between the Tories, Labour, Brexit party and LibDems. As I predicted at the time we are now back to where we've been for ages, two party politics:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197

Am I missing something?? To me that graph shows anything but a two-party political field, unless you are suggesting the Tories and Labour form a coalition. Any one of those top four parties could play a major part in the next government.

[Elite_Pie]

Am I missing something?? To me that graph shows anything but a two-party political field, unless you are suggesting the Tories and Labour form a coalition. Any one of those top four parties could play a major part in the next government.

I'm saying that just like the last few decades, the Tories and Labour will get most seats. LibDems will get a few, the Greens and Brexit party will be lucky to get one seat each, so I don't know who your fourth party are. Some were saying that the events of the last couple of years would see a massive shift in the political landscape, but those polls just suggest more of the same.

[Lullapie]

I'm saying that just like the last few decades, the Tories and Labour will get most seats. LibDems will get a few, the Greens and Brexit party will be lucky to get one seat each, so I don't know who your fourth party are. Some were saying that the events of the last couple of years would see a massive shift in the political landscape, but those polls just suggest more of the same.

Aha - thanks for clearing it up.
I think as with other odd times during the past few decades a new party hits the ground running midway between elections. There is a groundswell for something new, then at the last minute, the British public panic and vote for one of the 'old' parties. I find Johnson's and the Tories' tactics very odd with isolating The Brexit Party. It is a very high-risk strategy that could see them lose power if the centreright/right vote is split, rather than forming a pre-election alliance. In terms of history, minor parties that go into coalition or alliance and give their 'confidence and supply' to a major party, normally disappear off the political spectrum at the next election, so The Tories could kill two birds with one stone. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

[i961pie]

I'm saying that just like the last few decades, the Tories and Labour will get most seats. LibDems will get a few, the Greens and Brexit party will be lucky to get one seat each, so I don't know who your fourth party are. Some were saying that the events of the last couple of years would see a massive shift in the political landscape, but those polls just suggest more of the same.

Could the fourth party be the SNP? Their 30/40 odd seats could make all the difference in a hung parliament.

[ncfcog]

Some interesting forecasts here from the Electoral Calculus who appear to be widely thought of as one of the top election prediction sites on the internet.

Turnout is expected to be bigger than two years ago which in itself was the biggest turnout since 1997.

14266

[ncfcog]

To add to last post it will be interesting to see how this changes once campaigning has got into full swing. I will try and update as it happens but will be an opportunity to measure how much difference for example a live TV debate can have etc.

[Elite_Pie]

I find Johnson's and the Tories' tactics very odd with isolating The Brexit Party. It is a very high-risk strategy that could see them lose power if the centreright/right vote is split, rather than forming a pre-election alliance.

I think Farage made any alliance with the Tories very unlikely when he described the deal brokered by Boris as "a bad one and not really Brexit". If they had managed to come to some sort of tactical agreement on who stands where I think a Tory majority would be a formality. If (as Farage claims) the Brexit party contest 600+ seats, although their likely 10% of the vote won't win any seats they could pinch enough Tory votes to allow one of the other parties to sneak in, leading to a hung parliament.

[Lullapie]

Some interesting forecasts here from the Electoral Calculus who appear to be widely thought of as one of the top election prediction sites on the internet.

Turnout is expected to be bigger than two years ago which in itself was the biggest turnout since 1997.

14266

I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation, but looking at the latest poll, it just further reinstalls my view that what is the point of voting for The Greens. The kind of person who votes Green, without proportional representation must have had their brains removed. A total wasted vote.

[Elite_Pie]

I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation, but looking at the latest poll, it just further reinstalls my view that what is the point of voting for The Greens. The kind of person who votes Green, without proportional representation must have had their brains removed. A total wasted vote.

What a great idea, let's all show that there is absolutely no opposition at all to ruining the planet. I presume your warped logic would also apply equally to voting for the Brexit party or UKIP, because they are projected to get less seats than the Green party.

[sidders]

I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation, but looking at the latest poll, it just further reinstalls my view that what is the point of voting for The Greens. The kind of person who votes Green, without proportional representation must have had their brains removed. A total wasted vote.

Of course you're right. Voting for a principle died a long time ago.

[drillerpie]

I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation, but looking at the latest poll, it just further reinstalls my view that what is the point of voting for The Greens. The kind of person who votes Green, without proportional representation must have had their brains removed. A total wasted vote.

I can't think of any better way to 'take back control' than making sure everyone's vote counts ie proportional representation.

[sevens_a_secret]

I can't think of any better way to 'take back control' than making sure everyone's vote counts ie proportional representation.

Can someone remind me why you need to have a government again?

All I can see is so called grown-ups falling over themselves to hand their political agency to someone else to wield for them. In most cases to people clearly not to be trusted, but you'll do it anyway.

Isn't it time you all grew up and stopped asking for Mummy and Daddy to do it for you and instead got up of your knees and took control of your own lives?

It's pathetic really. You deserve the crap coming to you...

[maddogslater]

I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation, but looking at the latest poll, it just further reinstalls my view that what is the point of voting for The Greens. The kind of person who votes Green, without proportional representation must have had their brains removed. A total wasted vote.
The planet is dying, species going extinct, rain forests destroyed, the earth torn and raped, rivers and lakes polluted, the oceans used as a trash can and you say voting green is a waste.

[sevens_a_secret]

The planet is dying, species going extinct, rain forests destroyed, the earth torn and raped, rivers and lakes polluted, the oceans used as a trash can and you say voting green is a waste.

Well it is, unless you live in Brighton, perhaps. Extinction Rebellion and the anti-fracking activists etc have done more and are likely to do more than a lame vote for the Green Party.

[sidders]

Can someone remind me why you need to have a government again?

All I can see is so called grown-ups falling over themselves to hand their political agency to someone else to wield for them. In most cases to people clearly not to be trusted, but you'll do it anyway.

Isn't it time you all grew up and stopped asking for Mummy and Daddy to do it for you and instead got up of your knees and took control of your own lives?

It's pathetic really. You deserve the crap coming to you...

Umm, who is the 'you' whom you are addressing here and how come you yourself are not included?

[the_anticlough]

I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation.

That means you're strongly behind disproportional representation.
Not a position that can be taken very seriously

[sevens_a_secret]

Umm, who is the 'you' whom you are addressing here and how come you yourself are not included?

Well, this turkey won't be voting for Christmas. I advocate an Anarchist Communist revolution instead.

Ya Basta!

[forwardmagpie]

That means you're strongly behind disproportional representation.
Not a position that can be taken very seriously

I prefer the first past the post system as it makes it less likely to have a hung parliament / coalition government which I am not keen on.

I understand it is probably not the best system but in my opinion usually gives a better outcome.

The last referendum we had on our voting system in 2011 rejected the LibDems Single Transferable Vote where 68% voted (with a low turnout) not to change from the current system.
Although not Proportional Representation it was a step in that direction that didn’t appear to interest the electorate.

However it wasn’t referred to as “a once in a generation referendum” so maybe we could have another vote.

[the_anticlough]

I prefer the first past the post system as it makes it less likely to have a hung parliament / coalition government which I am not keen on.

I understand it is probably not the best system but in my opinion usually gives a better outcome.



In the UK, we've seen that even 36% of the vote on about 66% turnout can win a party absolute power for half a decade or much longer. That's 23% of the population having it all their way.

If that 23% was delivering policies and outcomes you hated, the absolute opposite of what you believe, would you still be saying 'well it's better than a hung parliament' or parties having to work with each other? No, I think you'd quickly become a supporter of proportional representation.

[forwardmagpie]

In the UK, we've seen that even 36% of the vote on about 66% turnout can win a party absolute power for half a decade or much longer. That's 23% of the population having it all their way.

If that 23% was delivering policies and outcomes you hated, the absolute opposite of what you believe, would you still be saying 'well it's better than a hung parliament' or parties having to work with each other? No, I think you'd quickly become a supporter of proportional representation.

No I wouldn’t, I didn’t support Mr Blair (not sure what %s he got) for more than a decade but I just got on with it as I think it’s the best option so please don’t presume I think like you.

[the_anticlough]

No I wouldn’t, I didn’t support Mr Blair (not sure what %s he got) for more than a decade but I just got on with it as I think it’s the best option so please don’t presume I think like you.

I wasn't thinking of Blair. The last Euros with the tories on 8%, raised the possibility of a Corbyn Govt with a large working majority even on low to mid 30s %. It's good to know you would 'just get on' with that FPTP scenario too.
At the moment, there's more possibility of a large Johnson majority on a really low share of popular vote.
I don't think there's anyway you can deny that FPTP is anti-democratic, whatever your political persuasion.

[forwardmagpie]

I wasn't thinking of Blair. The last Euros with the tories on 8%, raised the possibility of a Corbyn Govt with a large working majority even on low to mid 30s %. It's good to know you would 'just get on' with that FPTP scenario too.
At the moment, there's more possibility of a large Johnson majority on a really low share of popular vote.
I don't think there's anyway you can deny that FPTP is anti-democratic, whatever your political persuasion.

Why did you not think of Mr Blair and Mr Brown when you raised this point?

FPTP for me is a better system and I have explained why - if Mr Corbyn wins on FPTP then so be it. If he does well then he will win the next election if he doesn’t he won’t.

You seem to have ignored the Single Transferable Vote referendum- why?

[the_anticlough]

Why did you not think of Mr Blair and Mr Brown when you raised this point?

FPTP for me is a better system and I have explained why - if Mr Corbyn wins on FPTP then so be it. If he does well then he will win the next election if he doesn’t he won’t.

You seem to have ignored the Single Transferable Vote referendum- why?


FPTP has always imposed Govts that a large majority of the population do not want.
It forces our politics into a dysfunctional 2-party system which just doesn't serve a complex, modern society with so many competing ideologies and outlooks.

The referendum was on Alternative Vote (AV) not STV. Let's not sugarcoat it, the tories ate the Lib dems alive in Govt. Most people can't even remember that referendum, it got so little attention. Clegg was so brow-beaten, he even seemed apologetic for having it so lame was the campaign.

Anyway, the point I'm making is FPTP is essentially an anti-democratic system. Anyone supporting it backs political representation (and actual power) being disproportional to actual votes. I just don't think that's defensible

[pingu_pie]

I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation, but looking at the latest poll, it just further reinstalls my view that what is the point of voting for The Greens. The kind of person who votes Green, without proportional representation must have had their brains removed. A total wasted vote.

Happy to admit I voted Green in 2017. Wasted vote? Absolutely. But then I live in Vauxhall; have a look at the voting figures for the last several elections, and tell me just how much value my vote had or did not have.

Outside chance that it will be more debatable this year, with Kate Hoey stepping down, but if you are a Tory living here (I'm not) then you still have as much chance of your vote mattering here as I do of marrying Jennifer Lawrence in a ceremony on the surface of Jupiter. Or Notts not finding a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at some point in the next 12 months.

PR isn't perfect, but FPTP is just disenfranchising. I'm not scared of coalitions - what would be so wrong with two ideologies having to attempt consensus? Same reason the US has the three branches of governance, limits the risk of someone gaining power unchecked.

[pingu_pie]

Can someone remind me why you need to have a government again?

All I can see is so called grown-ups falling over themselves to hand their political agency to someone else to wield for them. In most cases to people clearly not to be trusted, but you'll do it anyway.

Isn't it time you all grew up and stopped asking for Mummy and Daddy to do it for you and instead got up of your knees and took control of your own lives?

It's pathetic really. You deserve the crap coming to you...

How exactly would this work?

[forwardmagpie]

FPTP has always imposed Govts that a large majority of the population do not want.
It forces our politics into a dysfunctional 2-party system which just doesn't serve a complex, modern society with so many competing ideologies and outlooks.

The referendum was on Alternative Vote (AV) not STV. Let's not sugarcoat it, the tories ate the Lib dems alive in Govt. Most people can't even remember that referendum, it got so little attention. Clegg was so brow-beaten, he even seemed apologetic for having it so lame was the campaign.

Anyway, the point I'm making is FPTP is essentially an anti-democratic system. Anyone supporting it backs political representation (and actual power) being disproportional to actual votes. I just don't think that's defensible

Well we disagree then.

You have just posted that Cameron brow beat Clegg in a coalition government so maybe you agree coalition government is not really the answer.

[the_anticlough]

Well we disagree then.

You have just posted that Cameron brow beat Clegg in a coalition government so maybe you agree coalition government is not really the answer.

I knew you'd say that!
I think the Lib Dems gave a masterclass in how not to go into coalition. Talk about selling yourself short. Everyone remembers it as Cameron and Osborne's Govt and there was almost nothing Clegg wouldn't suck up - tuition fees, bedroom tax. It was like a Man U v Salford town cup final with the latter just happy to be there.
The DUP did far better in their less formal coalition with May.

The examples do not alter the basic undemocratic nature of FPTP, both added extra representation (of sorts). The problem is they're the exceptions not the rule. Usually 35% is enough to win absolute power over everybody.

[ncfcog]

Quite enjoying this debate about FPTP. A quick search online of previous elections does make some interesting reading.

In 2015 Cameron's Conservatives won a majority with 330 seats, just over 36% of the votes and almost exactly 2 million votes more than Ed Millibands Labour with 29% of the votes. Labour lost 26 seats that election, whilst the Tories gained 24. The SNP gained 50 seats but the Lib Dems lost 49, add together the number of actual votes for both these two parties and it represents just under 25% of the votes, about 4.8 million.

So Tory 330 seats 36%, Labour 232 seats 29%.

Compare this to Tony Blair's third election win in 2005 where he managed 355 seats but that only represented 35.2% of the votes, just 2.8% and 770k more votes than Michael Howard's Conservatives. Charles Kennedy's Lib Dems managed 22%, just shy of 6 million votes.

This makes it look like there were three contenders but if you look at the votes per seat won it makes for slightly different reading.

Votes per seat: Labour 26,908 | Tory 44,368 | Lib Dem 96,540. Thats a lot of votes won by the Lib Dems for very little gain.

I suppose in theory you could look at increasing the number of seats required for a majority from 326 to whatever but then an actual majority win would become less likely resulting in continuously hung parliaments. If nothing else it is clear that FPTP has benefited both of the main parties over the years.

[BigFatPie]

Orrible b@stsrds but Ukip got 4m votes in 2015 and no MPs. Democracy my arse.

[ncfcog]

Orrible b@stsrds but Ukip got 4m votes in 2015 and no MPs. Democracy my arse.

In 2017 Labour gained Kensington from the Tories by 20 votes, 0.05% of the vote. I just use this as an example of how marginal some of the voting can be at a local level as well.

[Lullapie]

The planet is dying, species going extinct, rain forests destroyed, the earth torn and raped, rivers and lakes polluted, the oceans used as a trash can and you say voting green is a waste.

Do you live in a country where the Greens have any say in Government? I do. The man thing they will be remembered for here is introducing a referendum to legalise Cannabis use, while increasing the mental health budget exponentially. The biggest user of international travel is the Minister for Climate Change, who did double the international travel in 2018 of the next minister. The Minister for Climate Change is also the leader of the Green Party. Hypocrites! If you think they will have any impact on saving the planet, you’ll probably be getting up Christmas Day morning, excited to see what Santa Claus has left you.

[Lullapie]

Happy to admit I voted Green in 2017. Wasted vote? Absolutely. But then I live in Vauxhall; have a look at the voting figures for the last several elections, and tell me just how much value my vote had or did not have.

Outside chance that it will be more debatable this year, with Kate Hoey stepping down, but if you are a Tory living here (I'm not) then you still have as much chance of your vote mattering here as I do of marrying Jennifer Lawrence in a ceremony on the surface of Jupiter. Or Notts not finding a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at some point in the next 12 months.

PR isn't perfect, but FPTP is just disenfranchising. I'm not scared of coalitions - what would be so wrong with two ideologies having to attempt consensus? Same reason the US has the three branches of governance, limits the risk of someone gaining power unchecked.

I live in a country that has it. It doesn’t work. It’s an ideology only. A bit like Communism or Marxism or Fascism.

[Lullapie]

FPTP generally gives you a government that has the power to introduce their policies. PR doesn’t. In countries where PR is the electoral system, you end up with indecision and wishy-washy compromise. Some people here love it because ‘it means every vote counts ‘, but in our system we have List MPs, who come in under the PR system and are accountable to nobody. Outside of Parliament many who support PR are too young to remember FPTP or don’t understand how politics work.

[Elite_Pie]

FPTP generally gives you a government that has the power to introduce their policies. PR doesn’t. In countries where PR is the electoral system, you end up with indecision and wishy-washy compromise.

Fu*cking hell, I realise you live on the other side of the world but I wasn't aware that the internet was that slow! Do you realise exactly how low we have sunk over here? If anyone had asked you to summarise in very few words just how pathetic the situation has become since the vote in June 2016 then "indecision and wishy-washy compromise" would be very hard to beat.

[Elite_Pie]

Do you live in a country where the Greens have any say in Government? I do. The man thing they will be remembered for here is introducing a referendum to legalise Cannabis use, while increasing the mental health budget exponentially. The biggest user of international travel is the Minister for Climate Change, who did double the international travel in 2018 of the next minister. The Minister for Climate Change is also the leader of the Green Party. Hypocrites! If you think they will have any impact on saving the planet, you’ll probably be getting up Christmas Day morning, excited to see what Santa Claus has left you.

So what are you saying? That any Green party vote is wasted and we should allow the destruction of the planet to go unchallenged?

If you insist that climate change isn't happening, or you have a better solution I'd love to hear it.

[ncfcog]

Apologies if this has been posted before but found a Channel4 article online that showed how the 2017 election would have looked with the PR options as well as FPTP.

14286

Taken from the article;

It’s important to remember that these are only estimates. It’s impossible to know exactly how voting behaviour might change if the UK switched to proportional voting – or how parties might alter their campaign tactics.
However, it gives us an idea of what the political map may look under proportional representation.
It suggests that the current FPTP system is only beneficial for the SNP and Conservatives, who would both lose out if the voting system was changed. Plaid Cymru would not stand to gain from a change either.
But the other parties would all benefit from switching to a version of proportional representation because second preferences now become relevant.
However, the different types of proportional representation are better for different parties, which perhaps makes it more unlikely that they would ever agree on a new system.
The Lib Dems, the Green Party and Ukip would all fare best under AMS. But this would actually be worse for Labour than the current method.
However, under STV – the version generally regarded as the most representative proportional voting system – Labour would have won more seats than any other party.

[i961pie]

So what are you saying? That any Green party vote is wasted and we should allow the destruction of the planet to go unchallenged?

If you insist that climate change isn't happening, or you have a better solution I'd love to hear it.

I don't think the poster is saying climate change isn't happening but the people preaching it in NZ are a bunch of hypocrites. A bit like our luvvies over here who fly in on their private jets and then get into a diesel 4 by 4 to join a protest.

[ncfcog]

Using The Electoral Calculus online we can now get a seat prediction based on the national level of support derived from opinion polls.

So to give this a whirl the latest poll info published by the BBC from 6th November looks like this;

14288

Based on those figures this would translate to a large majority win for the Conservatives as detailed below;

14289

This appears to be a decent prediction tool and it also shows you where you might see seats gained and lost based on national votes. For those interested in having a go themselves here is the link https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

[ncfcog]

OK so probably getting on everyone's t1ts now but two charts I will now stick with as the polls come in.

First one is average national voting intention by percentage of vote share and the other is predicted seats based on the vote share.

Hopefully this will provide us with an ongoing visual of how campaigning and other 'events' impact on the electorate and potential results.

It will also be interesting to compare the very last polls to seats actually won when it comes to it.

14290

14291

[Old_pie]

OK so probably getting on everyone's t1ts now but two charts I will now stick with as the polls come in.

First one is average national voting intention by percentage of vote share and the other is predicted seats based on the vote share.

Hopefully this will provide us with an ongoing visual of how campaigning and other 'events' impact on the electorate and potential results.

It will also be interesting to compare the very last polls to seats actually won when it comes to it.

14290

14291


Blimey - I wish Notts played in blue and that was your league chart!!

[Lullapie]

I don't think the poster is saying climate change isn't happening but the people preaching it in NZ are a bunch of hypocrites. A bit like our luvvies over here who fly in on their private jets and then get into a diesel 4 by 4 to join a protest.

Replaying to Elite_Pie below.........

There is a saying in NZ invented by a Labour MP about how certain people with too much time on their hands were looking for causes to feel bad about. The MP was referring to a branch of the NZ population who felt bad for what had been done to Maori nearly 200 years ago and they felt that, like Paul Bettany's character in The Da Vinci Code Silas, they should keep punishing themselves (and others) for historical transgressions. The term given by the Labour MP was 'White middle-class guilt'.

I feel that the Greens play on the same feelings worldwide, by telling everybody the world is going to come to an end and the only solution is to follow them and their doctrines. Their only solution is to invent punitive taxes, which they impose on the general public, mainly those who can't afford to pay them and then squander the money raised on their crazy ideas.

Honestly, hands up, do you recycle Elite and if you do, can you swear, hand on heart that you know what you do is making a difference and exactly what happens to your recycling?

Did you know that in NZ the price of glass and recyclable plastic dropped so low that it was not financially viable to recycle, so the recycling companies stored the glass and plastic 'in the ground' until the price rose again!

[Lullapie]

Fu*cking hell, I realise you live on the other side of the world but I wasn't aware that the internet was that slow! Do you realise exactly how low we have sunk over here? If anyone had asked you to summarise in very few words just how pathetic the situation has become since the vote in June 2016 then "indecision and wishy-washy compromise" would be very hard to beat.

That is because the Tories don't have a working majority. Did you miss the rest of my comments on PR or does your dial up only download part of the message?

[Lullapie]

So what are you saying? That any Green party vote is wasted and we should allow the destruction of the planet to go unchallenged?

If you insist that climate change isn't happening, or you have a better solution I'd love to hear it.

Yes, I AM saying that any Green Party vote is wasted in a country without PR. Just like voting for the Monster Raving Loony Party - hang on, you never see the both parties in the same room at the same time, am I onto something?

Did I say climate change wasn't happening? I must have missed that bit too. It's like saying just because you are Labourite, you love Corbyn. I didn't say it wasn't happening, but I don't know enough to know the exact cause - probably a bit yourself, but I'm not afraid to admit I don't know.

[Elite_Pie]

Yes, I AM saying that any Green Party vote is wasted in a country without PR. Just like voting for the Monster Raving Loony Party - hang on, you never see the both parties in the same room at the same time, am I onto something?

Did I say climate change wasn't happening? I must have missed that bit too. It's like saying just because you are Labourite, you love Corbyn. I didn't say it wasn't happening, but I don't know enough to know the exact cause - probably a bit yourself, but I'm not afraid to admit I don't know.

So because you're not sure either way about climate change, you are satisfied to do nothing about it. I don't know much on the subject but even in my lifetime I have seen extreme weather become much more frequent. That's why I think we should adopt a safety first approach and take urgent action now, because the very existence of the planet could be at stake.

[Old_pie]

So because you're not sure either way about climate change, you are satisfied to do nothing about it. I don't know much on the subject but even in my lifetime I have seen extreme weather become much more frequent. That's why I think we should adopt a safety first approach and take urgent action now, because the very existence of the planet could be at stake.

You seem to be saying that only the Greens care, and that only the Greens have the answers. I don't believe either to be true and certainly not the latter.

[Elite_Pie]

You seem to be saying that only the Greens care, and that only the Greens have the answers. I don't believe either to be true and certainly not the latter.

I don't know how you worked that out, but your calculations are way off. The Greens were only mentioned because Lullapie said a vote for them was a wasted one.

[Old_pie]

I don't know how you worked that out, but your calculations are way off. The Greens were only mentioned because Lullapie said a vote for them was a wasted one.

Probably an impression I formed when read also in conjunction with your earlier:


So what are you saying? That any Green party vote is wasted and we should allow the destruction of the planet to go unchallenged?

If you insist that climate change isn't happening, or you have a better solution I'd love to hear it.

[Elite_Pie]

Probably an impression I formed when read also in conjunction with your earlier:

That seems to back up my previous post perfectly.

[ncfcog]

Based on the announcement regarding the Brexit Party and not challenging marginal Tory seats to try and ensure Brexit get’s done YouGov have rerun their latest polls for Sky News but have recalculated by removing the Brexit Party option from a percentage of the people polled to try and assimilate how that affects the current voting intention of those polled.

The result is a 14% lead for the Tories on 42% over Labour with 28% and the Lib Dem’s at 15%. Will be interesting to see how that translates once candidates have been declared and we are a couple of weeks into the party campaigns.

[ncfcog]

Slight amendment to the above post, the figures quoted were actually for a poll taken by YouGov yesterday and today and sampled 1619 people.

Additionally the poll recorded that almost all people who would have voted for the Brexit Party but are no longer able to - and have made up their mind - will transfer their vote to the Conservatives.

[ncfcog]

YouGov also asked who would make the best prime minister between Boris, Corbyn and Swinson.
40% chose Boris, 16% chose Corbyn and 14% said Swinson. 31% were not sure or refused to say.

Interestingly 91% of Tory voters said that Boris would be their preference as PM, however just 59% of Labour voters thought Corbyn would be best in Downing Street.

[Lullapie]

So because you're not sure either way about climate change, you are satisfied to do nothing about it. I don't know much on the subject but even in my lifetime I have seen extreme weather become much more frequent. That's why I think we should adopt a safety first approach and take urgent action now, because the very existence of the planet could be at stake.

I know a little about climate change but not enough to prove to myself that it is all caused by human interference. I am not sure if you have heard of The Ice Age (the one that began over 2 million years ago where the Earth's temperature dropped, not the film with Diego the Sabre-Toothed Tiger and Sid the Sloth), but I'm pretty certain there were no humans around then. There are many different weather patterns that affect the planet and possibly some of these are responsible for what we are seeing today. However, I agree that Man's lack of care for his environment is causing major issues, but aligned to that, rapid population growth isn't helping either.

Do the Environmentalists also agree with mass-sterilisation as I am certain that would improve the state of the planet? Too many people, not enough resources is the problem, not whether or not you put your shopping in a reusable plastic bag.

[jackal2]

I know a little about climate change but not enough to prove to myself that it is all caused by human interference. I am not sure if you have heard of The Ice Age (the one that began over 2 million years ago where the Earth's temperature dropped, not the film with Diego the Sabre-Toothed Tiger and Sid the Sloth), but I'm pretty certain there were no humans around then. There are many different weather patterns that affect the planet and possibly some of these are responsible for what we are seeing today. However, I agree that Man's lack of care for his environment is causing major issues, but aligned to that, rapid population growth isn't helping either.

Do the Environmentalists also agree with mass-sterilisation as I am certain that would improve the state of the planet? Too many people, not enough resources is the problem, not whether or not you put your shopping in a reusable plastic bag.

I think a fair scientific case has been made to say that human behaviour is affecting the climate, but the precise extent of our impact relative to other factors outside of our control is still the subject of genuine debate.

It's probably academic anyway. As I said in a post a few weeks ago, even if the human race can reverse climate change by altering its behaviour, I don't believe we're capable of the collective, worldwide, ongoing, co-ordinated action to do it. Whether it's by misadventure or natural design (probably both), I think we're a finite species.

[Lullapie]

I think a fair scientific case has been made to say that human behaviour is affecting the climate, but the precise extent of our impact relative to other factors outside of our control is still the subject of genuine debate.

It's probably academic anyway. As I said in a post a few weeks ago, even if the human race can reverse climate change by altering its behaviour, I don't believe we're capable of the collective, worldwide, ongoing, co-ordinated action to do it. Whether it's by misadventure or natural design (probably both), I think we're a finite species.

I couldn't agree more - good post fella!

[MAD_MAGPIE]

I think a fair scientific case has been made to say that human behaviour is affecting the climate, but the precise extent of our impact relative to other factors outside of our control is still the subject of genuine debate.

It's probably academic anyway. As I said in a post a few weeks ago, even if the human race can reverse climate change by altering its behaviour, I don't believe we're capable of the collective, worldwide, ongoing, co-ordinated action to do it. Whether it's by misadventure or natural design (probably both), I think we're a finite species.

Very true. I think it's sensible to look at it from the viewpoint that mankind without a doubt has had a massive impact on the planets environment and ecosystems and that has likely contributed to climate change as we are part of the cycle of nature. Also on the other hand it would be extremely arrogant of mankind to assume that we are all so powerful beings that we have the ability to single-handedly change our climate for better or worse. Nature teaches us every day that we are powerless against it's force.

Nature works in a fine balance and mankind may have rocked the boat so to speak in terms of the balance, and once we are gone nature will continue to do what it does to maintain it's balance again. There have and always will be fluctuations and changes from what maybe perceived to be the norm and cycles within the earth's climate.

Sadly for mankind our inherent characteristics of individual or small group survival, greed, lack of collective spirit, competitiveness and fight or flight responses and lack of togetherness at the highest level as one group of countries and nations to tackle the issue as a human race will mean that we will never be able to work in unison to make a collective change. All we can do is as individuals is try and play our own part by having an awareness of the issues and assess our own environmental impacts and use of resources and make informed decisions that may go a small way in doing our bit to help.

[BigFatPie]

The current warming of the planet is down to human activity and it’s only humans who can do anything about it. We need to because it’s bad and it’s causing a lot of suffering and expense.

I’m not sure why that’s hard to understand or why anyone would disagree with it.

[bridpie78]

The current warming of the planet is down to human activity and it’s only humans who can do anything about it. We need to because it’s bad and it’s causing a lot of suffering and expense.

I’m not sure why that’s hard to understand or why anyone would disagree with it.

Because humans have curious minds, some more curious than others, many people like to see hard evidence and definitive proof before making such statements of certainty, it is just not in some of our natures to accept things and form our opinions just because it is what we heard first or loudest.

also some don't care very much because we are selfish XD

[jackal2]

The current warming of the planet is down to human activity and it’s only humans who can do anything about it. We need to because it’s bad and it’s causing a lot of suffering and expense.

I’m not sure why that’s hard to understand or why anyone would disagree with it.

To be fair, I'm not sure there are that many people who do disagree with it.

As Lullapie said above, the planet went through phases of heating and cooling prior to human existence so it would be naïve to think that we are the only factor influencing our climate. However, the relative speed with which the current process of global warming is taking place underpins the scientific argument that human activity is a significant contributing and accelerating factor, and with the world population growing, this impact is only likely to increase.

We'll continue to try various ways to avert extinction, probably with increasing desperation, from personal decisions like reducing our use of plastic bags through to huge international agreements, but ultimately we'll fail. Human beings are inherently self-destructive, probably by natural design. I think deep down most of us know our destiny regardless of how slowly or quickly it materialises, but unsurprisingly we have trouble accepting our mortality on a personal or collective level. Nobody wants to confront the fact that we're going to die and there's nothing we can do about it, even though we know as individuals that it's a fact.

We desperately need to feel we're doing something on a personal level to control or avert our fate, so we engage in understandable and laudable but ultimately futile activities and gestures to convince ourselves that we're doing something, rather than nothing. I'm not saying that this reaction is wrong, indeed it may be the best and only coping mechanism we've got, but in the final analysis, it won't change the outcome.

I'm sorry to sound so fatalistic but I just see these things in a pretty matter-of-fact sort of way. We ain't going to be here forever. A comet might sort us all out in the meantime!

Talking of futile activities and gestures to feel we control things, this thread was originally about the General Election! >:)

[ncfcog]

Talking of futile activities and gestures to feel we control things, this thread was originally about the General Election! >:)

I'm glad you pointed that out!

[ncfcog]

Just a couple more polls published over last few days.

YouGov sampled 1,619 people on 12 November - CON 42% | LAB 28% | LD 15% | BRX 4% | GRN 4%.

ICM sampled 2,035 people on 11th November - CON 39% | LAB 31% | LD 15% | BRX 8% | GRN 3%.

I will wait until something more substantial is published before updating any charts.

[jackal2]

Just a couple more polls published over last few days.

YouGov sampled 1,619 people on 12 November - CON 42% | LAB 28% | LD 15% | BRX 4% | GRN 4%.

ICM sampled 2,035 people on 11th November - CON 39% | LAB 31% | LD 15% | BRX 8% | GRN 3%.

I will wait until something more substantial is published before updating any charts.

If the margins of error of the polls in recent elections and the EU referendum are applied, this could point to a small Labour majority come 12th December! ;D

[ncfcog]

If the margins of error of the polls in recent elections and the EU referendum are applied, this could point to a small Labour majority come 12th December! ;D

Reckon it's going to go to the wire!

[Elite_Pie]

Talking of futile activities and gestures to feel we control things, this thread was originally about the General Election! >:)

On that subject , I see hospital waiting times are at the worst ever level. Doesn't matter, people will still give the party that caused this a majority at the election because getting Brexit done is far more important. Let's get Brexit done, then the waiting lists can get even longer.

[Notts78]

On that subject , I see hospital waiting times are at the worst ever level. Doesn't matter, people will still give the party that caused this a majority at the election because getting Brexit done is far more important. Let's get Brexit done, then the waiting lists can get even longer.

Each individual has that right though. In BoJo we trust.

[Elite_Pie]

Each individual has that right though. In BoJo we trust.

As you say, each to their own.

I must admit however that the thought of anyone trusting Boris Johnson is something I can't quite get to grips with.

[Notts78]

As you say, each to their own.

I must admit however that the thought of anyone trusting Boris Johnson is something I can't quite get to grips with.

The same can be said about Jeremy Corbyn.

[Elite_Pie]

The same can be said about Jeremy Corbyn.

It certainly can, but the fact Corbyn may be untrustworthy has nothing to do with you placing your trust in Boris. So what exactly are you trusting him to do?

[Notts78]

It certainly can, but the fact Corbyn may be untrustworthy has nothing to do with you placing your trust in Boris. So what exactly are you trusting him to do?

To deliver Brexit.

[navypie]

It certainly can, but the fact Corbyn may be untrustworthy has nothing to do with you placing your trust in Boris. So what exactly are you trusting him to do?
Taking back control of our destiny.

[Elite_Pie]

To deliver Brexit.

I don't doubt he will do that. What do you trust him to do when he's delivered Brexit?

Or is Brexit the only thing that matters to you?

[Elite_Pie]

Taking back control of our destiny.

Good one shipmate. When did you learn sarcasm?

[navypie]

Good one shipmate. When did you learn sarcasm?
You must have certain replies on speed dial. Oh, for the life of me I cannot place you.

[Elite_Pie]

You must have certain replies on speed dial. Oh, for the life of me I cannot place you.

If you were being serious I apologise.

And sympathise.

[Notts78]

I don't doubt he will do that. What do you trust him to do when he's delivered Brexit?

Or is Brexit the only thing that matters to you?

Yes it is to begin with. However, I am intrigued to see that he delivers on his promises around the NHS, and specifically the building of 6 new hospitals and a fairly substantial pay rise for NHS staff. The promises of 20k police officers being put back on the streets is important to me, it provides an opportunity in terms of careers but also (hopefully) a deterrent to would be criminals. His manifesto around education and what plans he has are quite important to me given I have 2 kids at junior school. Today’s announcement around immigration seems sensible. We need migrants. Whether that’s someone picking carrots or carrying out brain surgery, we need them.
All in all his manifesto in this election is one that seems balanced and ticks many boxes.

[navypie]

If you were being serious I apologise.

And sympathise.
Apology accepted.

[sevens_a_secret]

To deliver Brexit.

But Boris already had a chance to get Brexit done and didn't?

He got 'his' deal (actually one rejected by Theresa May because it wasn't good enough for BJ, the DUP and the ERG, but never mind) through the Commons, and then decided to pull the plug and start again so he could play politics, but you still trust him?

Wow. Gullible or what?

[Elite_Pie]

Yes it is to begin with. However, I am intrigued to see that he delivers on his promises around the NHS, and specifically the building of 6 new hospitals and a fairly substantial pay rise for NHS staff. The promises of 20k police officers being put back on the streets is important to me.

So you trust him to improve the NHS despite nearly a decade of Tory rule leading to record waiting lists. And putting back the 20,000 police officers the Tories got rid of impresses you.

I suppose some people are easily impressed.

[PedroTheFisherman66]

What do you like about Johnson?

he was such a buffoon on Have I got news for you , his zenith ....!

[PedroTheFisherman66]

Yes it is to begin with. However, I am intrigued to see that he delivers on his promises around the NHS, and specifically the building of 6 new hospitals and a fairly substantial pay rise for NHS staff. The promises of 20k police officers being put back on the streets is important to me, it provides an opportunity in terms of careers but also (hopefully) a deterrent to would be criminals. His manifesto around education and what plans he has are quite important to me given I have 2 kids at junior school. Today’s announcement around immigration seems sensible. We need migrants. Whether that’s someone picking carrots or carrying out brain surgery, we need them.
All in all his manifesto in this election is one that seems balanced and ticks many boxes.

isn't this what labour plan to do and more ? the plan that has been costed ,
unlike the conservative one. ( a bit like the one before that wasn't costed either)
as for picking carrots and the brain surgery , our children could grow up to fill these vacancies , which one would be decided by parents guidance and government policies.
if you haven't picked up what I mean re carrots, brain surgery and government policies I will spell it out
with the Tories in power (and their cuts)and education policies , working class kids are more likely to be carrot pickers !
the rich get richer and the poor poorer.

[PedroTheFisherman66]

As you say, each to their own.

I must admit however that the thought of anyone trusting Boris Johnson is something I can't quite get to grips with.

I agree elite
the fact that he is a born liar and it has been proven on may occasions, the latest being the one to the Queen.
sorry I think this one might be outdated now , The one about the Russian report not being released is probably his latest unless this has been superseded.
The worrying thing is that the majority of people know that he is a liar ,but still are willing to put their trust in him.
what's that saying “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me...fool me many times I must be as thick as pig **** !!!!

[i961pie]

Unfortunately trusting any politician especially at election time is a joke.
Do you honestly believe all the guff and promises that the likes of Boris, Swinson and Corbyn are spouting willl actually be implimented if they come to power?
I stopped listening after the first few days, the money it will cost to pay for their Xmas list would bankrupt us.

[forwardmagpie]

I agree elite
the fact that he is a born liar and it has been proven on may occasions, the latest being the one to the Queen.
sorry I think this one might be outdated now , The one about the Russian report not being released is probably his latest unless this has been superseded.
The worrying thing is that the majority of people know that he is a liar ,but still are willing to put their trust in him.
what's that saying “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me...fool me many times I must be as thick as pig **** !!!!

Politicians lie shock!


I wonder who you and Elite are voting for, why and if you think whoever gets your vote hasn’t lied.

I will be voting for the least worst option.

[jackal2]

Unfortunately trusting any politician especially at election time is a joke.
Do you honestly believe all the guff and promises that the likes of Boris, Swinson and Corbyn are spouting willl actually be implimented if they come to power?
I stopped listening after the first few days, the money it will cost to pay for their Xmas list would bankrupt us.

You're not wrong. Elections usually descend into desperate, silly season politics, especially the Lib Dems and other smaller parties who know they can promise what they like because they won't be the sole party of Government and won't have to deliver. It's a bit alarming when you hear the 'big two' parties going down the same line though. I woke up this morning listening to John McDonnell on Radio Four trying to justify their newly announced free broadband policy and if I didn't know better I would have sworn I'd tuned into some sort of far-fetched political satirical comedy.

[ncfcog]

You're not wrong. Elections usually descend into desperate, silly season politics, especially the Lib Dems and other smaller parties who know they can promise what they like because they won't be the sole party of Government and won't have to deliver. It's a bit alarming when you hear the 'big two' parties going down the same line though. I woke up this morning listening to John McDonnell on Radio Four trying to justify their newly announced free broadband policy and if I didn't know better I would have sworn I'd tuned into some sort of far-fetched political satirical comedy.

The free broadband for everyone promise did make me think a bit. With an open mind I actually spent a few moments yesterday trying to work out how that would work, the costs involved, the challenges with re-nationalising a de-nationalised private institution etc but then realised it must have been a joke and surely they don't honestly believe that it is possible!

Also, it's amazing that you can have two parties both declaring they want a fair and controlled method for the management of immigration but refusing to declare on one side that it means reducing immigration and on the other side means increasing it.

I think it is fair to say that there are too many questions to be asked of both the main parties and like it or lump it as others have quite rightly said it will be an election won on Brexit.

[BigFatPie]

You're not wrong. Elections usually descend into desperate, silly season politics, especially the Lib Dems and other smaller parties who know they can promise what they like because they won't be the sole party of Government and won't have to deliver. It's a bit alarming when you hear the 'big two' parties going down the same line though. I woke up this morning listening to John McDonnell on Radio Four trying to justify their newly announced free broadband policy and if I didn't know better I would have sworn I'd tuned into some sort of far-fetched political satirical comedy.


You were arguing literally the other week that political parties can promise what they like during campaigns and shouldn’t be held to account if they win.

Bearing that in mind, the promise of free WiFi for everyone seems quite modest.

[magpie_mania]

You're not wrong. Elections usually descend into desperate, silly season politics, especially the Lib Dems and other smaller parties who know they can promise what they like because they won't be the sole party of Government and won't have to deliver. It's a bit alarming when you hear the 'big two' parties going down the same line though. I woke up this morning listening to John McDonnell on Radio Four trying to justify their newly announced free broadband policy and if I didn't know better I would have sworn I'd tuned into some sort of far-fetched political satirical comedy.

Did you see Boris on Breakfast this morning? He was asked the last time he had to use the NHS. Apparently it was last year when he stepped on some glass at a BBQ. I thought I was watching 'Would I lie to you!'

[navypie]

You were arguing literally the other week that political parties can promise what they like during campaigns and shouldn’t be held to account if they win.

Bearing that in mind, the promise of free WiFi for everyone seems quite modest.
Well,we all know you and Ronald McDonnell live in cloud cuckoo land.

[Lullapie]

The current warming of the planet is down to human activity and it’s only humans who can do anything about it. We need to because it’s bad and it’s causing a lot of suffering and expense.

I’m not sure why that’s hard to understand or why anyone would disagree with it.

I think, like Elite, you are overlooking the main problem - overpopulation. We are discovering so many new ways to keep sick people alive, where as years ago, medicine could do nothing for them.

[TheBlackHorse]

... first thing to do , Boris, is privatise the BBC and get rid of the PC lefties who don't allow interviewees to answer questions fully ...

[magpie_mania]

... first thing to do , Boris, is privatise the BBC and get rid of the PC lefties who don't allow interviewees to answer questions fully ...

Did you watch the interview this morning.

As to answering questions fully ... He mostly avoided them! How can you not answer them but give a full answer?

[sidders]

... first thing to do , Boris, is privatise the BBC and get rid of the PC lefties who don't allow interviewees to answer questions fully ...

Shock horror, the black nag favours an authoritarian, media-controlled state. What a surprise.

[HaylePie]

Shock horror, the black nag favours an authoritarian, media-controlled state. What a surprise.

So, is state-controlled internet provision a good idea?

[Elite_Pie]

I think, like Elite, you are overlooking the main problem - overpopulation.

I'm not overlooking the problem, but unlike you I prefer tackling climate change rather than mass sterilisation.

[Elite_Pie]

I wonder who you and Elite are voting for, why and if you think whoever gets your vote hasn’t lied.

I will vote for the party most likely to stop the Conservative winning in my constituency unless it happens to be the Brexit party, in which case my vote will go to the Greens. The reason for this is because I think a Tory majority in parliament will be really bad for the country.
Has whoever gets my vote lied? Probably yes, but they are unlikely to be anywhere near as bad as Boris Johnson in the lying department.

[CheltenhamPie]

Shock horror, the black nag favours an authoritarian, media-controlled state. What a surprise.

My understanding of conducting an interview is to ask a question and then to allow the interviewee to answer. That procedure was sadly lacking from Ms Munchetti. Whether you like Boris Johnson or not, he is the senior officer of state, and I would have thought common courtesy is the bedrock of a civilised society. Not apparently within the BBC! Having seen the P.M. Being asked about his private life, I do rather wonder whether the BBC will ask Mr Corbyn about his three marriages.
I am very saddened with the state our country is in, and whatever the outcome of the election, I do hope that somehow, post election, we may once again be more united. However, I doubt it.

[forwardmagpie]

I will vote for the party most likely to stop the Conservative winning in my constituency unless it happens to be the Brexit party, in which case my vote will go to the Greens. The reason for this is because I think a Tory majority in parliament will be really bad for the country.
Has whoever gets my vote lied? Probably yes, but they are unlikely to be anywhere near as bad as Boris Johnson in the lying department.

Thanks you for your reply.

We disagree on politics as I want to leave the EU (as I might have said as some time over the past 3 years) and think that remaining will in the long term be really bad for our country.

Which of the Green policies excluding Climate Change (which all parties appear to be very determined to tackle) excites you the most.

[Elite_Pie]

Which of the Green policies excluding Climate Change (which all parties appear to be very determined to tackle) excites you the most.

None of them in particular. A vote for the Greens would basically be a protest vote against the main parties rather wanting them in government. If 'None of the above' appeared at the bottom of the ballot paper I would be tempted to place my cross there.

[i961pie]

None of them in particular. A vote for the Greens would basically be a protest vote against the main parties rather wanting them in government. If 'None of the above' appeared at the bottom of the ballot paper I would be tempted to place my cross there.

Just write it across the ballot paper, I probably will.

[BigFatPie]

Bit of a shame ncfcog’s fine polling thread has been commandeered by election issues, but never mind.

I am a bit sceptical about the funding, but Labour’s broadband scheme is a good idea. It’s amusing to see many of those poring over the cost of a scheme which has lots of benefits have absolutely no problem about the cost of Johnson’s Brexit plan (6ish % off GDP) which has absolutely no benefits. Apart from the ones we already have.

[TheBlackHorse]

... so tell me BFP, what does a reduction of 6% GDP mean yo you ...

[jackal2]

You were arguing literally the other week that political parties can promise what they like during campaigns and shouldn’t be held to account if they win. Bearing that in mind, the promise of free WiFi for everyone seems quite modest.

"Literally the other week"? Only if you happen to live on Venus, where one day is equivalent to 243 earth days. Our discussion was ages ago! >;)

I do recall the conversation though, about the hyperbole used - by both sides - in the EU referendum campaign. My point was that in a referendum or an election the public are entitled to listen to the arguments and promises of all politicians and must then decide what they believe is credible or not credible, and cast their vote for the party or side that they believe or trust most. Election promises are not given under oath and I doubt there has ever been a time when a winning political party has delivered upon all of its election pledges, sometimes because they were 'silly season' promises made in the heat of the campaign, and sometimes because circumstances legitimately change and plans have to change with them. The hope would be that the parties with the realistic chance of forming a Government will stay closer to reality in the promises they make, but either way, failure to deliver on a particular pledge does not negate the result of the election.

You say yourself that you are a bit sceptical about the funding of this broadband pledge and I share that scepticism. Whatever I think about his politics, John McDonnell is usually a highly impressive interviewee who could probably sell ice to the eskimos, but this morning he was flustered by an unusually challenging interviewer who effectively exposed that this policy had been made up on the back of a fag packet, and that it contradicted statements McDonnell had made some time ago.

I totally defend your right to believe him and vote Labour though, if you wish. And if they win the General Election, that result would stand irrespective of whether they deliver on every promise or not. That's the way it works.

[salmagundi]

Seems strange that people would want to have the government as their ISP, deciding what they could and couldn't access on the internet. Just like North Korea and China.
Since this is nominally a football forum I wondered how some of the other announced policies would affect football. Getting rid of billionaires might have some effect on the Premier League, since many of the clubs are owned by billionaires. Some might say that would be a good thing and would level the playing field. If they also banned the use of private jets it would be the end of international football, both club and national sides rely on the use of private jets. Even Notts used a private jet to get to Turin for the Juve game.

[jackal2]

Seems strange that people would want to have the government as their ISP, deciding what they could and couldn't access on the internet. Just like North Korea and China.
Since this is nominally a football forum I wondered how some of the other announced policies would affect football. Getting rid of billionaires might have some effect on the Premier League, since many of the clubs are owned by billionaires. Some might say that would be a good thing and would level the playing field. If they also banned the use of private jets it would be the end of international football, both club and national sides rely on the use of private jets. Even Notts used a private jet to get to Turin for the Juve game.

It will be interesting to see how Brexit eventually affects the number of non-British players allowed in Premier and Football League League sides.

[BigFatPie]

... so tell me BFP, what does a reduction of 6% GDP mean yo you ...

Hoss, It means a reduction in GDP of roughly 6% in comparison with remaining...

This seems like a decent summary.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/10/18/johnsons-brexit-deal-is-worse-for-the-uk-economy-than-mays-research-suggests.html

[BigFatPie]

Interesting piece on the UK’s troubled relationship with broadband rollout.


https://www.techradar.com/uk/news/world-of-tech/how-the-uk-lost-the-broadband-race-in-1990-1224784

[ncfcog]

It will be interesting to see how Brexit eventually affects the number of non-British players allowed in Premier and Football League League sides.

To be fair you are most likely to end up with more. How many EU nationals not including GB and Ireland play in the English leagues now? I would hazard guess much less than the non EU nationals.

[ncfcog]

Ok I've waited another week and collated all the data from the 6 polls published for dates 10th November to 14th November. In total there were 8993 people polled.

Interestingly the number of votes for both Con and LAB have inctreased, however when you run the seat predictions you can see there is a slight gain showing for LAB and and a slight move in a downward trend for CON, although at this point CON would still get a healthy majority.

14336

14337

Here is how the 6 polls panned out individually:

14338

[TheBlackHorse]

... thank you BFP for the information. Most of that economic shyte we could all have guessed. So now BFP answer the question - how does it affect YOU?

[BigFatPie]

... thank you BFP for the information. Most of that economic shyte we could all have guessed. So now BFP answer the question - how does it affect YOU?

I’m not really sure how it’ll affect ME, but it’s definitely gonna be crap for an awful lot of other people.

[Elite_Pie]

I will vote for the party most likely to stop the Conservative winning in my constituency unless it happens to be the Brexit party, in which case my vote will go to the Greens.

I've just had a look at my voting options, which are:

Darren Henry, Conservative
Greg Marshall, Labour
Anna Soubry, The Independent Group for Change
Kat Boettge, Green
David Bishop, Militant Elvis
Amy Dalla Mura, English Democrats
Teck Khong, Independent

A quick glance at the credentials of the bottom three on the list means they are ruled out as a possible vote just as easily as the top one, so it's between the remaining (no pun intended) three for me.

[forwardmagpie]

I've just had a look at my voting options, which are:

Darren Henry, Conservative
Greg Marshall, Labour
Anna Soubry, The Independent Group for Change
Kat Boettge, Green
David Bishop, Militant Elvis
Amy Dalla Mura, English Democrats
Teck Khong, Independent

A quick glance at the credentials of the bottom three on the list means they are ruled out as a possible vote just as easily as the top one, so it's between the remaining (no pun intended) three for me.

I think you should vote for Mrs Soubry.

[Elite_Pie]

I think you should vote for Mrs Soubry.

At the moment I'm 70% Marshall, 20% Soubry, and 10% Boettge.

Broxtowe is always one of the more interesting constituencies because it's usually marginal, and current incumbent Ms Soubry standing for Change this time around only adds to the interest. The Tories are definitely favourites, but if Soubry can entice a few of the pro-remain Tory voters to back her it might just open the door for Greg Marshall. I will certainly be more welcoming to the lovely Anna if she knocks on my door this time than I was last time.

[forwardmagpie]

At the moment I'm 70% Marshall, 20% Soubry, and 10% Boettge.

Broxtowe is always one of the more interesting constituencies because it's usually marginal, and current incumbent Ms Soubry standing for Change this time around only adds to the interest. The Tories are definitely favourites, but if Soubry can entice a few of the pro-remain Tory voters to back her it might just open the door for Greg Marshall. I will certainly be more welcoming to the lovely Anna if she knocks on my door this time than I was last time.

I had you down as a 70% labour voter.
Have you already cancelled your broadband account as we know you like a freebie.

[Elite_Pie]

I had you down as a 70% labour voter.
Have you already cancelled your broadband account as we know you like a freebie.

Already got a free one. After 4,187 attempts I worked out next door's wifi password so I just use theirs now.

[magpie_mania]

My understanding of conducting an interview is to ask a question and then to allow the interviewee to answer. That procedure was sadly lacking from Ms Munchetti. Whether you like Boris Johnson or not, he is the senior officer of state, and I would have thought common courtesy is the bedrock of a civilised society. Not apparently within the BBC! Having seen the P.M. Being asked about his private life, I do rather wonder whether the BBC will ask Mr Corbyn about his three marriages.
I am very saddened with the state our country is in, and whatever the outcome of the election, I do hope that somehow, post election, we may once again be more united. However, I doubt it.

Was Johnson asked about how many children he has? Regarding an interview, my understanding is that the question is asked then the question is answered. The only reason she had to keep butting in is that he wasn't answering the questions. He simply kept coming back to two things. Let's get Brexit done, and the Labour Party ...

He did squirm though when asked when he last used the NHS services!

[sevens_a_secret]

Even Notts used a private jet to get to Turin for the Juve game.

Notts has a private jet? Surely the money would be better spent on the player budget?

I suspect you don't mean Notts has a private jet, just hired a publicly available one. Not the same thing at all.

Probably not much more extravagant in terms of cost or emissions than flying BA when you think about it.

[sevens_a_secret]

... so tell me BFP, what does a reduction of 6% GDP mean yo you ...

Sorry, I realise you were asking BFP, but I couldn't resist.

Surely, it will mean less tax revenue, which will mean less for the NHS, schools, roads, welfare, pensions etc, which will affect everyone. You didn't really need that explaining for you, did you?

Question for you. How would remaining in the EU negatively affect you personally? Don't give us any bull about sovereignty, as you don't have any more control over what happens in Westminster than you do over what happens in Brussels.

[TheBlackHorse]

... morning 7 ... do you think BFP needs your help?
EU - it's all about the money. Germany controls everything and together with its tart France, has been screwing the rest of Europe from the start.
I would sooner vote out our idiot MP's than be able to remove those in real conrol in Brussels (or Berlin/Bonn).

[countygump]

Made me larf:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1195663013422018560

[sevens_a_secret]

... morning 7 ... do you think BFP needs your help?

Well, his response was uncharacteristically lame, I thought.



EU - it's all about the money. Germany controls everything

Ah. You don't seem to understand how the EU works. Besides, how does that affect you personally? Germany contributes more per capita than the UK...

"Total German contribution to the EU budget: € 19.587 billion
German contribution to the EU budget as % of its GNI: 0.59 % "

"Total UK contribution to the EU budget: € 10.575 billion
The UK’s Contribution to the EU budget as % of its GNI: 0.46%"

That's roughly 235 euros to 159 per capita.

https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries_en

snipped xenophobic nastiness.

[jackal2]

From the Full Fact UK website:

The UK pays more into the EU budget than it gets back.

In 2018 the UK government paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was forecast to be £4 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at nearly £9 billion.

Each year the UK gets a discount on its contributions to the EU—the ‘rebate’—worth about £4 billion last year. Without it the UK would have been liable for £17 billion in contributions.

Full Fact doesn't take sides but exposes the inaccuracies of both the Remain and Leave arguments, so I post this purely for information: https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

[TheBlackHorse]

... as usual '7' miring himself and us in statistics. For Germany, their contribution is their cost of empire/domination in their major strengths, ie industrial production. Why should we pay in more than we get back - who decided the UK should adopt the EU form of socialism. We joined the 'Common Market, not its political spin on.

[TheBlackHorse]

... '7' ... you're even more out of touch than I thought. Juventus sent their own jet to collect and return Notts for the opening of their new stadium.

[sevens_a_secret]

... as usual '7' miring himself and us in statistics.

Six numbers is hardly 'miring'. Scared of numbers as well as foreigners, BH?



For Germany, their contribution is their cost of empire/domination in their major strengths, ie industrial production.

Ah, jealousy is such an ugly thing. Thatcher gutted UK industry, but let's blame the Germans.



Why should we pay in more than we get back

Well, that's a policy adopted by just about every state in the world, including the UK. The rich are expected to contribute more in taxes than the poor. It's a logical enough principle. Do you really have a problem with that?



- who decided the UK should adopt the EU form of socialism. We joined the 'Common Market, not its political spin on.

I remember in the run up to the referendum there was a lot of anti Eastern European feeling, talk of them "coming over here, stealing our jobs, scrounging benefits" sort of nonsense. Well, one way to reduce that sort of immigration is to strengthen the economies of the poorer regions of the EU to make economic migration less necessary.

Again, I ask how any of this negatively affects you?

[sevens_a_secret]

... '7' ... you're even more out of touch than I thought. Juventus sent their own jet to collect and return Notts for the opening of their new stadium.

Ah, thanks for reminding me. But accepting a lift off a rich friend in their gas guzzler does not make you a reckless polluter in the grand scheme of things. That's on them.

BTW, did you think salmagundi needed your help? :-)

[TheBlackHorse]

... 7' ... so wide of the mark on each of your opinions you make me laugh, as usual. Enjoy your delusions ...

[ncfcog]

Getting back on track …

Latest couple of polls would suggest the Tories position is strengthening and pollsters are changing their working methodology to account for the Brexit party not contesting certain Tory held constituencies. However the increase in voting intention for the Tories in these constituencies may be giving a false impression and wont necessarily translate into extra seats in the commons come Election Day.

Based on this it’s likely the Tories might need to be averaging circa 44-45% in the polls to guarantee they get the seats to ensure a majority. This is further endorsed by my last graph which shows a slight decline in predicted seat numbers for the Tories since the Brexit party’s withdrawals.

[ncfcog]

I have data from the last 9 polls published between 15th and 20th November which account for a total sample of 13,146 people polled.

Conservatives have hit the dizzy heights of 45% of the polled votes in 3 of the 9 polls via YouGov, DeltaPoll and Kantar but received 37% on 15th Nov via BMG. This represents a Conservative average for this period of 38% and a 7% margin of error.

Labour peaked at 31% with ComRes on 20th November and their lowest polled vote percentage was 27% with Kantar on the 18th November so a 4% margin of error.

The predicted seats now shows the Conservatives with a 50 seat majority over labour, however that could be anything between 53 and 47 seats considering the margin of error calculations.

If you are still with me here are the graphs:
14389

14390

I will continue to collect data for the next 5-6 days to see if the manifesto announcements for each party make any difference.

[Bohinen]

I have data from the last 9 polls published between 15th and 20th November which account for a total sample of 13,146 people polled.

Conservatives have hit the dizzy heights of 45% of the polled votes in 3 of the 9 polls via YouGov, DeltaPoll and Kantar but received 37% on 15th Nov via BMG. This represents a Conservative average for this period of 38% and a 7% margin of error.

Labour peaked at 31% with ComRes on 20th November and their lowest polled vote percentage was 27% with Kantar on the 18th November so a 4% margin of error.

The predicted seats now shows the Conservatives with a 50 seat majority over labour, however that could be anything between 53 and 47 seats considering the margin of error calculations.

If you are still with me here are the graphs:
14389

14390

I will continue to collect data for the next 5-6 days to see if the manifesto announcements for each party make any difference.

The LibDems are doing a lot worse than people predicted. Good, because that's 22 seats more than they deserve. I think they will get less than that anyway.

The chart is interesting, because whilst Boris is way ahead of Labour, he's not that far ahead when it comes to a Commons majority. You really have to add the SNP seats in with Labour as they speak with one voice at times and are potential allies.

Incidentally, it amused me that Elite was revealing to people who hadn't taken much notice that he's slightly to the left of centre. On here, that makes you a Marxist. We seem to have the most right-wing fan base in the country with the possible exception of Stoke. Mind you, some of the worst Neaderthals are only here because their own club's board has died a death.

[sidders]

... 7' ... so wide of the mark on each of your opinions you make me laugh, as usual. Enjoy your delusions ...

That's a really powerful argument you have there, horsey. Never let it be said that you're a neigh-sayer.

[sidders]

The LibDems are doing a lot worse than people predicted. Good, because that's 22 seats more than they deserve. I think they will get less than that anyway.

The chart is interesting, because whilst Boris is way ahead of Labour, he's not that far ahead when it comes to a Commons majority. You really have to add the SNP seats in with Labour as they speak with one voice at times and are potential allies.

Incidentally, it amused me that Elite was revealing to people who hadn't taken much notice that he's slightly to the left of centre. On here, that makes you a Marxist. We seem to have the most right-wing fan base in the country with the possible exception of Stoke. Mind you, some of the worst Neaderthals are only here because their own club's board has died a death.

MY bet at the bookies was for an overall Tory majority of 20-plus but so poor has Bozo been with his bumbling, drooling down his tie performance that a well hung Parliament must again be clear favourite. He is a far better comedian than he is a PM.

[OP67]

The LibDems are doing a lot worse than people predicted. Good, because that's 22 seats more than they deserve. I think they will get less than that anyway.

The chart is interesting, because whilst Boris is way ahead of Labour, he's not that far ahead when it comes to a Commons majority. You really have to add the SNP seats in with Labour as they speak with one voice at times and are potential allies.

Incidentally, it amused me that Elite was revealing to people who hadn't taken much notice that he's slightly to the left of centre. On here, that makes you a Marxist. We seem to have the most right-wing fan base in the country with the possible exception of Stoke. Mind you, some of the worst Neaderthals are only here because their own club's board has died a death.

Now the SNP Labour thing is odd, the SNP will only be part of a Labour government if they're allowed to have an independence referendum. What happens if they win that and become independent??? They'll no long be part of the UK and the government. That'll make Labour a minority government and open to another election. I really can't see Labour agreeing to Indyref 2 during their for term so the Scots would have to wait 5 years.

Not that any of the above is going to happen ;D

[Elite_Pie]

MY bet at the bookies was for an overall Tory majority of 20-plus but so poor has Bozo been with his bumbling, drooling down his tie performance that a well hung Parliament must again be clear favourite. He is a far better comedian than he is a PM.

A Tory majority is now clear favourite. I took 11/8 about a Tory majority about 3 weeks ago, so could now guarantee a profit by backing a hung parliament because I am convinced they are the only two possible outcomes on December 12th. While you are correct about how poor Boris has been in this campaign, it won't make any difference. He could molest the queen on the steps of Buckingham Palace and 40% of people would still give him their vote because he's "getting Brexit done", and nothing else matters.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority

[BigFatPie]

A Tory majority is now clear favourite. I took 11/8 about a Tory majority about 3 weeks ago, so could now guarantee a profit by backing a hung parliament because I am convinced they are the only two possible outcomes on December 12th. While you are correct about how poor Boris has been in this campaign, it won't make any difference. He could molest the queen on the steps of Buckingham Palace and 40% of people would still give him their vote because he's "getting Brexit done", and nothing else matters.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority

A very depressing but ultimately probably accurate conclusion.

[ncfcog]

Polls from 21st to 26th November. 15,039 people sampled (not including those on Elites excellent poll thread). Slight increases for both Con and Lab, a slight drop for LD. It seems not much will change.

14439

14440

[ncfcog]

Latest poll data would indicate that the gap between the two main parties is reducing whilst LD, BRX and GRN all start to tail off.

Sample of 18,821 people by 9 different pollsters between 28th November and 3rd of December.

14486

14489

Tory majority now down to a predicted 30 sests but could be anything between 28 and 32 seats.

Current probable outcomes as it stands according to Electoral Calculus:

14488

As mentioned previously the outcome of this election is by no means a sure thing. It is likely the probability of a Labour minority will increase over the next few days as election day draws nearer. Boris refusing to do the Andrew Neil and Julie Etchingham interviews coupled with the alleged official document leaked today by Labour regarding the Tories Brexit deal will no doubt have an impact on these predictions as the polls start to level out this week.

[Elite_Pie]

Good graphs ncfcog, but I'm still expecting to wake up in a week's time to the news that Boris Johnson has been elected with a majority.
I know Brexit has been highly divisive, but how did we manage to sink this low? The nation will place it's future in the hands of Johnson and the likes of Gove and Rees-Mogg, three of the most obnoxious pieces of animal excrement in politics.

I remember having a disagreement with Tricky a while ago when he said the failure of parliament to deliver Brexit would cause a huge political sh!tstorm at the next election when voters would desert the main parties in droves, and new parties like his beloved Brexit party will come to the fore. I told him he was talking out of his arse and that two-party politics would continue. The graphs tell us who was right!
The one enjoyable thing about this election campaign has been the total wipeout of UKIP, and support for the Brexit party dropping from 23% in July to less than 5% now. So I think Boris will win, Boris will deliver Brexit, and then the sh!t will start to hit the fan.

[drillerpie]

Tory majority now down to a predicted 30 sests but could be anything between 28 and 32 seats.


Interesting stuff ncfcog, keep up the good work.

Assuming the Conservatives still have around 15/20 pro remain MPs in their ranks, a majority of 28 is not that big (in terms of Brexit legislation at least).

[i961pie]

Interesting stuff ncfcog, keep up the good work.

Assuming the Conservatives still have around 15/20 pro remain MPs in their ranks, a majority of 28 is not that big (in terms of Brexit legislation at least).

Haven't the pro remainers been expelled or left?

[drillerpie]

Haven't the pro remainers been expelled or left?

I think he let most of them back.

[Elite_Pie]

Haven't the pro remainers been expelled or left?

Most of them, and any replacement Tory candidates will have to kiss Johnson's arse in order to gain selection.

Good for winning the election, but bad for the country him being surrounded by a bunch of nodding dogs.

[BigFatPie]

Good graphs ncfcog, but I'm still expecting to wake up in a week's time to the news that Boris Johnson has been elected with a majority.
I know Brexit has been highly divisive, but how did we manage to sink this low? The nation will place it's future in the hands of Johnson and the likes of Gove and Rees-Mogg, three of the most obnoxious pieces of animal excrement in politics.

I remember having a disagreement with Tricky a while ago when he said the failure of parliament to deliver Brexit would cause a huge political sh!tstorm at the next election when voters would desert the main parties in droves, and new parties like his beloved Brexit party will come to the fore. I told him he was talking out of his arse and that two-party politics would continue. The graphs tell us who was right!
The one enjoyable thing about this election campaign has been the total wipeout of UKIP, and support for the Brexit party dropping from 23% in July to less than 5% now. So I think Boris will win, Boris will deliver Brexit, and then the sh!t will start to hit the fan.

Even if it does, it’ll be Remoaners, Labour, Lib Dems, Muslims, gays, poor people’s fault for not ‘believing’ enough.

In relation to the thread there’s a Twitter account called Dr Moderate who’s putting a very persuasive case that the polls are massively underestimating Labour support. Obviously we have no idea whether that’s true or not, but it’s nice to read from a leftist point of view.

[ncfcog]

So with the big day looming and Elites poll coming to end here are the last poll graphs I'm going to post.

Latest data is the largest sample I have used since I started this with 132,087 people polled between 4th and 11th December from 10 different pollsters.

14564

14565

Based on the abve the Conservatives would win with an overall majority of 62. Of course it is not an exact science but if the Tories did fail to get a majority, based on the polls it would be classed as a monumental failure.

I realise this hasn't been interesting for many but I certainly enjoyed doing it and will be interested to see just how close some of these prediction actually were.

[Soccerman166]

Even if it does, it’ll be Remoaners, Labour, Lib Dems, Muslims, gays, poor people’s fault for not ‘believing’ enough.

In relation to the thread there’s a Twitter account called Dr Moderate who’s putting a very persuasive case that the polls are massively underestimating Labour support. Obviously we have no idea whether that’s true or not, but it’s nice to read from a leftist point of view.


Dream on.

[Elite_Pie]

I realise this hasn't been interesting for many but I certainly enjoyed doing it and will be interested to see just how close some of these prediction actually were.

Excellent work ncfcog, and even though recent polls haven't been too accurate I think your final offering will be close to the mark.

When my poll has closed, I might get my calculator out and do an 'exit poll'.

[ncfcog]

Excellent work ncfcog, and even though recent polls haven't been too accurate I think your final offering will be close to the mark.

When my poll has closed, I might get my calculator out and do an 'exit poll'.

Thanks, I'll do a seat prediction based on your poll results ;D

[ncfcog]

650 in play, 326 needed for outright majority.

Conservative: 311 (+13)
Labour: 218 (-26)
SNP: 33 (-2)
Lib Dems: 28 (+8)
DUP: 10 (no change)
Greens: 2 (+1)
Speaker: 1 (no change)
Others: 47

Close but no cigar for Bojo and the blues. Red flag flying half mast. Swinson’s Lib Dem’s declare victory after massive gains (lol). Seat not contested in Chorley.

Country remains in a state of flux with another minority government.

Looking at back at my original post the idea was to try and guess the outcome based on seats.

In considering all the poll data I put together over the last month and comparing to my own original predictions it seems my biggest error in judgement was twofold. Firstly the Tories still appear to be heading for a majority, but maybe only just. Secondly the Lib Dems have dropped like a stone.

For what it is worth having considered my original choices and the poll data I'm going to revise my prediction slightly and go with a Tory win with a 16 seat majority.

Apologies for being a saddo.

[BigFatPie]

Looking at back at my original post the idea was to try and guess the outcome based on seats.

In considering all the poll data I put together over the last month and comparing to my own original predictions it seems my biggest error in judgement was twofold. Firstly the Tories still appear to be heading for a majority, but maybe only just. Secondly the Lib Dems have dropped like a stone.

For what it is worth having considered my original choices and the poll data I'm going to revise my prediction slightly and go with a Tory win with a 16 seat majority.

Apologies for being a saddo.

Not sad at all. Really interesting(to me anyway)

A couple of things that the polls might not take into account.

1. The weather. It is absolutely abysmal out there. Lower turnout tends to favour the Tories, though older folk may be put off this time.

2. Tactical voting. Hasn’t had much of an effect before, but the campaign appears to be really well organised.

Who knows?

[ncfcog]

Not sad at all. Really interesting(to me anyway)

A couple of things that the polls might not take into account.

1. The weather. It is absolutely abysmal out there. Lower turnout tends to favour the Tories, though older folk may be put off this time.

2. Tactical voting. Hasn’t had much of an effect before, but the campaign appears to be really well organised.

Who knows?

I know it was a bit of a joke when the date was announced but I did look at the weather earlier think it might stop a few turning out. Mind you there was a really strong postal vote campaign this time so maybe that will make a difference.

As for tactical voting I'm not sure there will be much impact. I think people are quite set in their ways and will struggle to fully consider how this would work and if it can have an impact in their constituency. I think once confronted with their ballot paper the number of voters who find the temptation to stick with their usual choice will outweigh the number tactical voters.

[frenchmagpie]

I feel like it's 2pm on a Saturday. We know the team and you have a feeling that this week will be different and the result will be ours. But deep down you know that come the final whistle it will be another disappointment and totally predictable. At least I don't have to live there and can dust off my nationalisation file. Allez les rouges.

[BigFatPie]

I feel like it's 2pm on a Saturday. We know the team and you have a feeling that this week will be different and the result will be ours. But deep down you know that come the final whistle it will be another disappointment and totally predictable. At least I don't have to live there and can dust off my nationalisation file. Allez les rouges.

Yes, exactly. Certainly more hope than expectation. As usual.

[jackal2]

650 in play, 326 needed for outright majority.

Conservative: 311 (+13)
Labour: 218 (-26)
SNP: 33 (-2)
Lib Dems: 28 (+8)
DUP: 10 (no change)
Greens: 2 (+1)
Speaker: 1 (no change)
Others: 47

Close but no cigar for Bojo and the blues. Red flag flying half mast. Swinson’s Lib Dem’s declare victory after massive gains (lol). Seat not contested in Chorley.

Country remains in a state of flux with another minority government.

As likely an outcome as any other, because this election campaign hasn't felt all that dissimilar to the previous one, but who knows.

Recent experience tells us not to trust the opinion polls, plus we know that there are a huge number of variables at play across all of the marginal seats and some could boil down to what side of bed people got out of this morning, or just as importantly, whether they got out of bed at all. What will be will be. The exit poll results are usually pretty accurate but I wouldn't be surprised if even they were slightly less reliable this time, which would keep everybody hanging on throughout the night if its close!

[jackal2]

PS. If Twitter is anything to go by, Corbyn will have about 450 seats! XD

[ncfcog]

Exit polls suggest 86 seat majority win for Conservative https://apple.news/AFRvqXIbTQjmhLC823OVwig

[HAPPYMAGPIEHAPPY]

If they are accurate then Boris has absolutely smashed it to pieces !

Corbyn Out !

[Elite_Pie]

Exit polls suggest 86 seat majority win for Conservative https://apple.news/AFRvqXIbTQjmhLC823OVwig

The only positive to come from this is that Corbyn has to resign tomorrow.

Labour will then have a golden opportunity to rebuild if lessons have been learned.

[JoePass]

;);););)P back to the allotment traitor.

[HAPPYMAGPIEHAPPY]

The only positive to come from this is that Corbyn has to resign tomorrow.

Labour will then have a golden opportunity to rebuild if lessons have been learned.

Can’t hear any of the chants now !
“Oh Jeremy Corbyn, Oh Jeremy Corbyn”

Bye Bye Steptoe 👋🏻

[Old_pie]

The only positive to come from this is that Corbyn has to resign tomorrow.

Labour will then have a golden opportunity to rebuild if lessons have been learned.

Yes if the polls are accurate it shows that the electorate are idiots and the only message they have given is that they don't like Corbyn. ffs those voters have been sucked in again by the bus, the Tory promises (not the Liebor ones of course).

Still, you're en route to make money so you'll be happy.

[Elite_Pie]

Yes if the polls are accurate it shows that the electorate are idiots and the only message they have given is that they don't like Corbyn. ffs those voters have been sucked in again by the bus, the Tory promises (not the Liebor ones of course).

Still, you're en route to make money so you'll be happy.

Far from happy, just like when I win a bet on Notts to lose I'd prefer the bookies to keep my money. I knew Corbyn was unpopular, but when he is disliked far more than a dog turd like Boris Johnson things are really bad.

Over to you then Boris, all you have to do now is deliver the golden era you promised (snigger).

[magpie_mania]

Scary times ahead.

I wanted Tories to win but with a small majority as it now gives Boris Johnson a free hand to do what he wants.

But not as scary as a Corbyn majority would have been (assuming exit poll isn't totally wrong!)

[The_Don_ORiordan]

Corbyn only has himself to blame for this debacle.
Boris was ripe for the taking. But all he needed to do was keep from shooting himself in the foot.

An average middle left leader would have labour in power.

[JoePass]

Far from happy, just like when I win a bet on Notts to lose I'd prefer tbookies to keep my money. I knew Corbyn was unpopular, but when he is disliked far more than a dog turd like Boris Johnson things are really bad.

Over to you then Boris, all you have to do now is deliver the golden era you promised (snigger).


Suck it up loser.

[Elite_Pie]

Suck it up loser.

I'm lucky enough to be in a position to suck it up without problem. It's those who aren't so lucky that I feel sorry for.

[drillerpie]

An average middle left leader would have labour in power.

Agree with that. Will be interesting to see where Labour goes now. Back to being New Labour or McDonnell to keep the faith with the Corbyn project. I'd be interested to hear what traditional Labour voters who were repelled by Corbyn think.

Will also be interesting to see how Boris governs now. He traditionally has not been a very right wing politician, with such a large majority he doesn't need to keep Rees Mogg and the DUP happy. Will he go back to being a centrist?

[countygump]

The only positive to come from this is that Corbyn has to resign tomorrow.

Labour will then have a golden opportunity to rebuild if lessons have been learned.


This^^^

Double bonus for me. Get Brexit done, get rid of Corbyn, but will this free the Labour Party from the grip of the unions and the hard left? I really hope it does but I doubt it somehow.

[magpie_mania]

This^^^

Double bonus for me. Get Brexit done, get rid of Corbyn, but will this free the Labour Party from the grip of the unions and the hard left? I really hope it does but I doubt it somehow.

But who will be the new leader. I think it needs to be somebody with as little connection to Corbyn as possible.

[JoePass]

I'm lucky enough to be in a position to suck it up without problem. It's those who aren't so lucky that I feel sorry for.



You mean Diane Abbott and McDonnell.

[drillerpie]

This^^^

Double bonus for me. Get Brexit done, get rid of Corbyn, but will this free the Labour Party from the grip of the unions and the hard left? I really hope it does but I doubt it somehow.

Gump would you vote for McDonnell with the present shadow cabinet?

If not would you vote for him with a more middle of the road (and more competent) shadow cabinet?

[Elite_Pie]

You mean Diane Abbott and McDonnell.

No, I think they will be able to suck it up even easier than me.

The people I feel sorry for are the ones on or close to the breadline who fell for the Tory lies. I suppose I could take your attitude and say they deserve all they get, but I hope I'm a bit better than that.

[countygump]

Gump would you vote for McDonnell with the present shadow cabinet?

If not would you vote for him with a more middle of the road (and more competent) shadow cabinet?

No and No.

[drillerpie]

No and No.

Would you vote for a centre left Tony Blair type character?

[i961pie]

No, I think they will be able to suck it up even easier than me.

The people I feel sorry for are the ones on or close to the breadline who fell for the Tory lies. I suppose I could take your attitude and say they deserve all they get, but I hope I'm a bit better than that.

It is not worth replying to such childish remarks EP.
By the way Asdaa as been entered in a race at Newcastle 6-15 on 18th December.

[ncfcog]

With results from 649 of 650 seats available here is the predicted seats graph but now including actual results in the last column. The final seat result we are waiting for is St Ives in Cornwall which was a Tory seat previously.

One thing that stands out with the polls is that they were quite accurate with no more than 0.5% difference between the last set of polls analysed and the actual result where the main parties are concerned. Equally, although the results didn't quite match the exit polls it was still very close.

14577

The whole point of the thread originally was for people to have a guess at how they thought the result would pan out. It developed into something a little different and if nothing else has proved that the polls in general, together with expert scientific calculations can now be considered as a reasonably accurate way of predicting elections.

The one downside of this is the fact it was without doubt a Brexit election. Hopefully next time we can have an election based on party policies rather than something that completely divided the country. This would then potentially create a closer and more interesting analysis.

For those wondering how a second referendum may have panned out I'm afraid it is impossible to tell. You could argue that the collective votes for the Tories, Brexit and UKIP represent a leave majority and the votes for Labour, SNP and Lib Dems represent a remain majority in which case:

LEAVE:
Con - 13,941,086
BRX - 642,323
UKIP - 22,817
Total = 14,606,226

Remain:
Lab - 10,292,354
SNP - 1,242,380
LD - 3,675,342
Total = 15,210.076

Again, it's really close and doesn't actually represent the voting intention of individuals as there will be many leavers still voted Labour and vice versa within the Tory ranks of remain supporters.
Thanks to those that have contributed and found the thread interesting.