O/T:- Why the UK has the biggest COVID-19 death figure

[sidders]

This is the biggest single reason. This is what happens when we 'follow THE science'.

At least 95,000 people have entered the UK from overseas since the coronavirus lockdown was imposed, one of the government’s chief scientific advisers has revealed, while repeatedly failing to provide an estimate of how many of these people had Covid-19.

Appearing before MPs on the science and technology committee, Prof John Aston, the chief scientific adviser at the Home Office, admitted that had tougher restrictions been introduced at the border, the peak of the virus may have been delayed – but he did not say by how long, or if this would have saved lives.

Aston, who attends meetings of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which is advising the government during the crisis, was asked repeatedly for the estimated proportion or number of people arriving in the UK with Covid-19.


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He insisted instead that a more “robust” assessment was the ratio of imported cases to domestic cases. This model, formulated by Sage, estimates 0.5% of all cases on any given day are imported from overseas.

The government stopped issuing guidance at the border to arrivals from specific countries – including from Italy and China – to self-isolate on 13 March, 10 days before the lockdown was imposed. Since then, there has been little intervention other than advice provided on leaflets and posters. Arrivals will have been subjected to the same lockdown restrictions imposed on the wider population since 23 March.

In a heated exchange Yvette Cooper, the chair of the home affairs select committee, who was appearing as a guest member, asked Aston if ministers had a central estimate of the number of people arriving each week who might have Covid-19 when the decision to stop asking any arrivals to self-isolate was made.

Aston said: “When that [decision] was made, an estimate was made about what the effect of putting further restrictions on the border would be.

“It would delay the epidemic by a small amount of time and therefore it was deemed that wasn’t a sensible thing to do.”

Cooper repeatedly asked for the estimate but it was not provided. She said: “Previously people were asked to self-isolate at the border for 14 days. Inexplicably when other countries were increasing their restrictions or their requirements to self-isolate, the UK lifted them all. It was before the peak in Spain, it was still around the peak in Italy, it was several weeks before the peak in UK.”

Aston’s evidence comes as the government prepares to enforce a 14-day quarantine for arrivals by air at the UK border – a policy that some have suggested would have been more appropriate prior to the UK lockdown on 23 March.

There were 18.1 million arrivals to the UK in the period from 1 January to 23 March across air, land and sea, of whom 273 air passengers were formally quarantined.

[Elite_Pie]

Yeah, but it would have been much worse if Corbyn had been in charge. Maybe we should forget the efforts of the NHS staff and other key workers at 8pm on Thursday and instead applaud the government for their handling of the crisis.

I can actually think of a few on here who would join in.

[queenslandpie]

This is the biggest single reason. This is what happens when we 'follow THE science'.

At least 95,000 people have entered the UK from overseas since the coronavirus lockdown was imposed, one of the government’s chief scientific advisers has revealed, while repeatedly failing to provide an estimate of how many of these people had Covid-19.

Appearing before MPs on the science and technology committee, Prof John Aston, the chief scientific adviser at the Home Office, admitted that had tougher restrictions been introduced at the border, the peak of the virus may have been delayed – but he did not say by how long, or if this would have saved lives.

Aston, who attends meetings of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which is advising the government during the crisis, was asked repeatedly for the estimated proportion or number of people arriving in the UK with Covid-19.


Coronavirus: the week explained - sign up for our email newsletter
Read more
He insisted instead that a more “robust” assessment was the ratio of imported cases to domestic cases. This model, formulated by Sage, estimates 0.5% of all cases on any given day are imported from overseas.

The government stopped issuing guidance at the border to arrivals from specific countries – including from Italy and China – to self-isolate on 13 March, 10 days before the lockdown was imposed. Since then, there has been little intervention other than advice provided on leaflets and posters. Arrivals will have been subjected to the same lockdown restrictions imposed on the wider population since 23 March.

In a heated exchange Yvette Cooper, the chair of the home affairs select committee, who was appearing as a guest member, asked Aston if ministers had a central estimate of the number of people arriving each week who might have Covid-19 when the decision to stop asking any arrivals to self-isolate was made.

Aston said: “When that [decision] was made, an estimate was made about what the effect of putting further restrictions on the border would be.

“It would delay the epidemic by a small amount of time and therefore it was deemed that wasn’t a sensible thing to do.”

Cooper repeatedly asked for the estimate but it was not provided. She said: “Previously people were asked to self-isolate at the border for 14 days. Inexplicably when other countries were increasing their restrictions or their requirements to self-isolate, the UK lifted them all. It was before the peak in Spain, it was still around the peak in Italy, it was several weeks before the peak in UK.”

Aston’s evidence comes as the government prepares to enforce a 14-day quarantine for arrivals by air at the UK border – a policy that some have suggested would have been more appropriate prior to the UK lockdown on 23 March.

There were 18.1 million arrivals to the UK in the period from 1 January to 23 March across air, land and sea, of whom 273 air passengers were formally quarantined.

Entirely correct. Of the few new cases with are getting here in AU with the exception of Victorian ones they are all coming from returning Australians who have been quarantined. there was one case of community transition in Perth which was a hotel staff member serving food to the quarantined guests! It is an absolute disgrace and as I have mentioned several times the policy of isolating international arrivals and returning Australians for 14 days in a hotel giving the hotel income as the Government pays for the stay has saved billions and also pumped a few quid into the struggling hotel sector. Its a great policy and along with NZ who also did it its saved our asses.

[queenslandpie]

Yeah, but it would have been much worse if Corbyn had been in charge. Maybe we should forget the efforts of the NHS staff and other key workers at 8pm on Thursday and instead applaud the government for their handling of the crisis.

I can actually think of a few on here who would join in.

Really? I think its indefensible I cant see how anyone even soccerman could applaud the Governments handling of this crisis.

[ForeignLegion]

Had the Ruby Princess not been allowed to dock and disembark a toxic ship, we wouldn't have had half as many cases. Hundreds/thousands were free to roam Sydney and fly elsewhere whilst they were quite possibly infected. A bungle right up there on the UK's scale of complete incompetence.

Anyway, Black Beauty will be along soon to tell us he's glad we, of no use to anyone, buggered off from the UK shores.

[Sheffield Pie]

Where I live (Bulgaria) 14 day quarantine for arrivals from abroad was introduced in the middle of March. This in a country where a huge chunk of the population was returning home from migrant working. All it took was a Ministerial order and designing a form and they had it in place more or less overnight. Police checks and a big fine and suspended prison sentence if you break it. Has it helped? It can't have done any harm and helped to ensure everyone takes the whole situation seriously.

[Elite_Pie]

Really? I think its indefensible I cant see how anyone even soccerman could applaud the Governments handling of this crisis.

I predict that Soccerman would clap loudest, closely followed by seriouspie and TheBlackHorse. Even P4U might join in.

[queenslandpie]

Had the Ruby Princess not been allowed to dock and disembark a toxic ship, we wouldn't have had half as many cases. Hundreds/thousands were free to roam Sydney and fly elsewhere whilst they were quite possibly infected. A bungle right up there on the UK's scale of complete incompetence.

Anyway, Black Beauty will be along soon to tell us he's glad we, of no use to anyone, buggered off from the UK shores.

Correct me duck. Id have been supping last weekend not this weekend. Ultimately we have got off rather lightly so far and that was the bugger up to end all bugger ups. Case in Cairns I see this week letting the side down again up there!

[queenslandpie]

Where I live (Bulgaria) 14 day quarantine for arrivals from abroad was introduced in the middle of March. This in a country where a huge chunk of the population was returning home from migrant working. All it took was a Ministerial order and designing a form and they had it in place more or less overnight. Police checks and a big fine and suspended prison sentence if you break it. Has it helped? It can't have done any harm and helped to ensure everyone takes the whole situation seriously.

Spot on. Ultimately similar to here but namby pamby UK cant manage that.

[TheBlackHorse]

... well you've heard of lies, damn lies and statistics, even Snobhead 2 is trying it on ... 18.1m ... ha, even the Gwarjun says it's 95,000. Now who am I to argue with Yoghurt Knitters Express ...

[sidders]

... well you've heard of lies, damn lies and statistics, even Snobhead 2 is trying it on ... 18.1m ... ha, even the Gwarjun says it's 95,000. Now who am I to argue with Yoghurt Knitters Express ...

That 18.1 million figure was for air, land and sea. Did you have a problem reading your exam papers at school?
Btw, now I get it, your username comes from the pub at Caythorpe, you ex civil servant you.

[ForeignLegion]

Correct me duck. Id have been supping last weekend not this weekend. Ultimately we have got off rather lightly so far and that was the bugger up to end all bugger ups. Case in Cairns I see this week letting the side down again up there!

I'm not aware of any cases in Cairns; the figures out the other day stated 6 new cases in Qld, it then explained that those 6 had got it in another state and had since recovered! Go figure that one.

[queenslandpie]

I'm not aware of any cases in Cairns; the figures out the other day stated 6 new cases in Qld, it then explained that those 6 had got it in another state and had since recovered! Go figure that one.

https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/statistics

3 active cases in Cairns. 1 active case on the Sunny Coast (In ICU). However that will change this weekend once half of Brisbane comes to the Coast following the restriction release.

[optipez]

https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/statistics

3 active cases in Cairns. 1 active case on the Sunny Coast (In ICU). However that will change this weekend once half of Brisbane comes to the Coast following the restriction release.

Do you folks over there think you'll always keep the numbers really low ? Is there a discussion about when to open up the country again or is it quarantine for the long haul over a year or two?
I'm genuinely interested how Australia and New Zealand see the future panning out.
We seem to be slowly but surely coming to the realisation that we just can't afford eternal lockdown and like it or not by July most of us will be back out working. Traffic is definitely up over the last couple of weeks and a few more shops are opening.
Quarantine seems to be pretty porous as you are allowed in from France and Ireland I believe which leads me to think that we're heading for herd, or in Newspeak, social immunity over the long haul along with the rest of Europe.
Sweden certainly aren't turning back, Africa, South America and much of Asia don't have the financial wherewithal to put themselves on hold for long. So we could end up with a two speed world with Australia, New Zealand, Slovakia and some other nations almost marooned and safe for the immediate future but then as the rest of the world suffers the pandemic, gets over it and staggers on the safe isolation turns into exclusion from the future until a vaccine is found.
Maybe not, perhaps I'm too fatalistic and it can be contained with very little loss of life but I've not read anything to suggest this will just go away.

[ForeignLegion]

It remains to be seen, regarding keeping numbers low, as lockdown is lifted. We've already seen that people, once let loose, completely forget about distancing etc etc. The BIG issue though, is when to open the international borders; until there's either a vaccine, this thing clears up on its own, or airports here start seriously screening arrivals, that looks a long way away. Problem is, this country manufactures near enough bugger all, and is having a spat with China, who we rely on for all sorts of things (students, tourists, trade etc). We rely on people flying in as tourism is basically number 1.

[queenslandpie]

Do you folks over there think you'll always keep the numbers really low ? Is there a discussion about when to open up the country again or is it quarantine for the long haul over a year or two?
I'm genuinely interested how Australia and New Zealand see the future panning out.
We seem to be slowly but surely coming to the realisation that we just can't afford eternal lockdown and like it or not by July most of us will be back out working. Traffic is definitely up over the last couple of weeks and a few more shops are opening.
Quarantine seems to be pretty porous as you are allowed in from France and Ireland I believe which leads me to think that we're heading for herd, or in Newspeak, social immunity over the long haul along with the rest of Europe.
Sweden certainly aren't turning back, Africa, South America and much of Asia don't have the financial wherewithal to put themselves on hold for long. So we could end up with a two speed world with Australia, New Zealand, Slovakia and some other nations almost marooned and safe for the immediate future but then as the rest of the world suffers the pandemic, gets over it and staggers on the safe isolation turns into exclusion from the future until a vaccine is found.
Maybe not, perhaps I'm too fatalistic and it can be contained with very little loss of life but I've not read anything to suggest this will just go away.

I think that it is entirely unknown. The government message is that we should prepare and expect for an increase in cases as restrictions ease ( I am off one day early as the restrictions ease at midnight to a piss up tonight with 10 of us which is legal tomorrow but we wont be done by midnight). What I think you will see is that the colder and more populous areas such as NSW and Vic will not get rid of it and everywhere else will and pretty much has. Its elimination NOT eradication though. The state borders will have to remain closed and domestic tourism will still struggle on that basis especially QLD where Foreign Leg and I live which is tourism dependent on NSW and Vic and will be missing those customers. The state based lockdown here is a marvellous thing. National policy guidance has been issued for implementation by the states as they see fit. Some ( NT and SA) are motoring ahead others ( QLD, WA, ACT) are moving ahead more cautiously. None the less our Government I think has largely done a fantastic job and we are now arguing about when econominc stimulus should cease so I guess thats very positive. We will see if the cases increase. Who knows.

[ForeignLegion]

Reports are out by various bodies, claiming that international travel as we know it, may not return until 2023. Long enough to basically bugger this country. Some cheap houses coming up.

[queenslandpie]

Reports are out by various bodies, claiming that international travel as we know it, may not return until 2023. Long enough to basically bugger this country. Some cheap houses coming up.

Yep this is why the Mrs and I are taking the 40k super. I reckon we can pick up a steal in a year or so and sell on for major profit in 5-10 years. There has to be some benefits out of this.

[ForeignLegion]

Plenty of people in their 700-800k houses up here are crapping themselves. Air bnb's are coming onto the market in both forms; its a renter's paradise.

[queenslandpie]

Plenty of people in their 700-800k houses up here are crapping themselves. Air bnb's are coming onto the market in both forms; its a renter's paradise.

The median price where I live is around $1 million. I will be fine as I bought and sold a lot a few years ago and got out with a low mortgage but I am seeing those on the market around here getting large chunks carved out of the asking price. I know quite a few people who will be in the **** very quickly as they are highly geared and have tourism dependent livelihoods. I am quite glad I dont!

[ForeignLegion]

The median price where I live is around $1 million. I will be fine as I bought and sold a lot a few years ago and got out with a low mortgage but I am seeing those on the market around here getting large chunks carved out of the asking price. I know quite a few people who will be in the **** very quickly as they are highly geared and have tourism dependent livelihoods. I am quite glad I dont!

Million dollar homes when you’re in tourism. Insanity.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

This is the biggest single reason. This is what happens when we 'follow THE science'.

At least 95,000 people have entered the UK from overseas since the coronavirus lockdown was imposed, one of the government’s chief scientific advisers has revealed, while repeatedly failing to provide an estimate of how many of these people had Covid-19.

Appearing before MPs on the science and technology committee, Prof John Aston, the chief scientific adviser at the Home Office, admitted that had tougher restrictions been introduced at the border, the peak of the virus may have been delayed – but he did not say by how long, or if this would have saved lives.

Aston, who attends meetings of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which is advising the government during the crisis, was asked repeatedly for the estimated proportion or number of people arriving in the UK with Covid-19.


Coronavirus: the week explained - sign up for our email newsletter
Read more
He insisted instead that a more “robust” assessment was the ratio of imported cases to domestic cases. This model, formulated by Sage, estimates 0.5% of all cases on any given day are imported from overseas.

The government stopped issuing guidance at the border to arrivals from specific countries – including from Italy and China – to self-isolate on 13 March, 10 days before the lockdown was imposed. Since then, there has been little intervention other than advice provided on leaflets and posters. Arrivals will have been subjected to the same lockdown restrictions imposed on the wider population since 23 March.

In a heated exchange Yvette Cooper, the chair of the home affairs select committee, who was appearing as a guest member, asked Aston if ministers had a central estimate of the number of people arriving each week who might have Covid-19 when the decision to stop asking any arrivals to self-isolate was made.

Aston said: “When that [decision] was made, an estimate was made about what the effect of putting further restrictions on the border would be.

“It would delay the epidemic by a small amount of time and therefore it was deemed that wasn’t a sensible thing to do.”

Cooper repeatedly asked for the estimate but it was not provided. She said: “Previously people were asked to self-isolate at the border for 14 days. Inexplicably when other countries were increasing their restrictions or their requirements to self-isolate, the UK lifted them all. It was before the peak in Spain, it was still around the peak in Italy, it was several weeks before the peak in UK.”

Aston’s evidence comes as the government prepares to enforce a 14-day quarantine for arrivals by air at the UK border – a policy that some have suggested would have been more appropriate prior to the UK lockdown on 23 March.

There were 18.1 million arrivals to the UK in the period from 1 January to 23 March across air, land and sea, of whom 273 air passengers were formally quarantined.

Before I respond there is some degree of hindsight we have that we didn’t have back in March in terms of death toll that the government did not have.

However in spite of knowing the death toll now we were all aware what was happening globally and that the reason this disease spread so quickly is due to air travel. As such I do think that here in the U.K. we should have followed the likes of Australia and New Zealand and closed our borders around the 19th March like they did. Prior to our lockdown commencing the following week. As a precaution and to reduce risk which is the stance AUS and NZ took.

Whilst we are an island nation and air travel is the typical and most popular way to arrive in the country this should have extended to seaports the channel tunnel. It’s quite simple for a prime minister and government to order as AUS and NZ demonstrate when you are an island or one nation continent.

I also think that we should have followed AUS and NZ and banned citizens coming into the country from Iran, China and South Korea prior to mid March and also set up mandatory 14 day quarantine along time before now.

But I am no expert scientific adviser, medical professor or have done any modelling that is just my opinion.

However to close our borders is a move that culturally in our democracy is extraordinarily and is an unprecedented level of government control and power. I don’t know if as a nation we would be comfortable with implementing that kind of stance and how the international community would have reacted for that matter for the U.K. to take a hard tough line. It’s not how we operate as a nation as our borders are basically free and open to the world which politically has been a bone of contention over the years. But that’s a different story.

What happens going forward comparing the U.K. and the likes of AUS and NZ as to how we live with C-19 has yet to be played out. Whilst AUS and NZ are probably quite some way in front of us here in the U.K. in terms of getting back to “normal” life what happens next is how will those countries go about opening themselves up to the world again and letting in international travellers and tourists. Whilst they can or could create C-19 extermination bubbles so to speak will their borders have to be shut for many months or years to come or visitors quarantined? The big question is can they eliminate the death toll of the U.K. or will it be inevitable and it’s a delay?

If countries like AUS, NZ and others manage to eliminate the disease from their lands then history will judge their methods to have been a great success and one in which all nations should adapt future pandemics. If they ultimately succumb later on down the line when other countries have developed herd immunity then it will be more complexed. This story is far from over.

[MagpieMike]

This is the biggest single reason. This is what happens when we 'follow THE science'.

At least 95,000 people have entered the UK from overseas since the coronavirus lockdown was imposed, one of the government’s chief scientific advisers has revealed, while repeatedly failing to provide an estimate of how many of these people had Covid-19.

Appearing before MPs on the science and technology committee, Prof John Aston, the chief scientific adviser at the Home Office, admitted that had tougher restrictions been introduced at the border, the peak of the virus may have been delayed – but he did not say by how long, or if this would have saved lives.

Aston, who attends meetings of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which is advising the government during the crisis, was asked repeatedly for the estimated proportion or number of people arriving in the UK with Covid-19.


Coronavirus: the week explained - sign up for our email newsletter
Read more
He insisted instead that a more “robust” assessment was the ratio of imported cases to domestic cases. This model, formulated by Sage, estimates 0.5% of all cases on any given day are imported from overseas.

The government stopped issuing guidance at the border to arrivals from specific countries – including from Italy and China – to self-isolate on 13 March, 10 days before the lockdown was imposed. Since then, there has been little intervention other than advice provided on leaflets and posters. Arrivals will have been subjected to the same lockdown restrictions imposed on the wider population since 23 March.

In a heated exchange Yvette Cooper, the chair of the home affairs select committee, who was appearing as a guest member, asked Aston if ministers had a central estimate of the number of people arriving each week who might have Covid-19 when the decision to stop asking any arrivals to self-isolate was made.

Aston said: “When that [decision] was made, an estimate was made about what the effect of putting further restrictions on the border would be.

“It would delay the epidemic by a small amount of time and therefore it was deemed that wasn’t a sensible thing to do.”

Cooper repeatedly asked for the estimate but it was not provided. She said: “Previously people were asked to self-isolate at the border for 14 days. Inexplicably when other countries were increasing their restrictions or their requirements to self-isolate, the UK lifted them all. It was before the peak in Spain, it was still around the peak in Italy, it was several weeks before the peak in UK.”

Aston’s evidence comes as the government prepares to enforce a 14-day quarantine for arrivals by air at the UK border – a policy that some have suggested would have been more appropriate prior to the UK lockdown on 23 March.

There were 18.1 million arrivals to the UK in the period from 1 January to 23 March across air, land and sea, of whom 273 air passengers were formally quarantined.

Hogwash Sidders. We aren't the country with the highest Coronavirus death rate, that would be the US. The problem with our borders isn't people coming in since lockdown - the virus was already in general circulation, the problem was not controlling our borders when the virus first surfaced. If you contrast our approach with South Korea or Japan - both of whom had learned from SARS, you will see that they imposed travel restrictions very early, and locked down very early. We did neither, losing valuable time. Then there was the rundown state of the NHS and lack of PPE. Having said all that I think the Government has generally done OK since lockdown. (For the record I'm a Labour supporter and no fan of Boris). We seem to have successfully squashed the peak, and adjusted to provide the critical care needed. Still much to do.

[Another one]

I'm genuinely interested how Australia and New Zealand see the future panning out.
I'm in New Zealand. Not sure I hold a common view but being a remote couple of islands cutting ourselves off from the rest of the world was relatively easy, although the pain is now kicking in for those who work in the tourism industry.

The problem is we cannot remain cut off to the rest of the world forever so one day we will open the borders, the virus will get back in and we will be back to square one. We'll have another lockdown, rinse and repeat. Eventually the virus is going to go through everyone. Whether the economic pain to keep it out is going to be worth it I am not sure.

[magpie_mania]

Seriously, do people think that when they arrive in the UK, people will go into self-quarantine for 2 weeks? Some can't wait 5 seconds in the supermarket for you to move on!

I can't understand why we haven't done it much earlier. Still, BJ has 'put us on notice' that it is coming.

[sidders]

Hogwash Sidders. We aren't the country with the highest Coronavirus death rate, that would be the US. The problem with our borders isn't people coming in since lockdown - the virus was already in general circulation, the problem was not controlling our borders when the virus first surfaced. If you contrast our approach with South Korea or Japan - both of whom had learned from SARS, you will see that they imposed travel restrictions very early, and locked down very early. We did neither, losing valuable time. Then there was the rundown state of the NHS and lack of PPE. Having said all that I think the Government has generally done OK since lockdown. (For the record I'm a Labour supporter and no fan of Boris). We seem to have successfully squashed the peak, and adjusted to provide the critical care needed. Still much to do.

Are you for real? You appear to support most of what I have said throughout on COVID-19 and then you call it hogwash. In which case, I think you talk sheepsh*t. Yes, they should have shut down much sooner. No argument there. Your last sentence is almost a total denial of your main argument.

[Elite_Pie]

Are you for real? You appear to support most of what I have said throughout on COVID-19 and then you call it hogwash. In which case, I think you talk sheepsh*t. Yes, they should have shut down much sooner. No argument there. Your last sentence is almost a total denial of your main argument.

It's another case of responding to the poster rather than the post.

[queenslandpie]

Million dollar homes when you’re in tourism. Insanity.

They wont be million dollar homes soon.