Walkie Torquay

[MancMagpie]

Got beat last night at home by 10 men Alrtincham 2-1.

Shows that anybody can beat anybody in this league.

We're still 13 points behind Torquay but with 4 games in hand, and we have to play them again.

If the season continues they might just be catchable, especially if we're in touching distance going in to the last 10 or so games.

Stay positive!

[SwalePie]

Got beat last night at home by 10 men Alrtincham 2-1.

Shows that anybody can beat anybody in this league.

We're still 13 points behind Torquay but with 4 games in hand, and we have to play them again.

If the season continues they might just be catchable, especially if we're in touching distance going in to the last 10 or so games.

Stay positive!

Waits for the chorus of negativity.......

[Elite_Pie]

Waits for the chorus of negativity.......

I'm positive we won't catch Torquay.

So I'm positively negative.

[nw6pie]

I’m waiting until they’re 15 points clear before I let myself start to feel confident.

[countygump]

I'm positive we won't catch Torquay.

So I'm positively negative.

I'm positive that points on the board are worth more than a bird in a bush, allegedly.

[crazyfists]

I said to my dad today if we could complete the games I still think we're in with a shout, we're hard to beat now. I don't think we'll manage to get all the games played though.

[upthemaggies]

One win in five, their worst run of the season. They probably won't regain the amazing form they had earlier in the campaign. Somebody will catch them.

[laddo]

Is anyone positive that if you finish above Torquay you win the title?

[matt_magpie]

Is anyone positive that if you finish above Torquay you win the title?

No think Sutton and Stockport will catch them, don’t see why we can’t too.

[countygump]

Is anyone positive that if you finish above Torquay you win the title?

Nah, I don't think it will pan out like that. It looks like their amazing run is most prob over. @60% of the season left yet, IF we get to finish it, the title could be anyone's.

[TSANHO]

If anyone will catch them I kinda fancy Hartlepool to do it. I’d prefer to have the points on the board rather than games in hand but at least it gives us a little bit of hope that the title isn’t a foregone conclusion.

If only we can get Roberts fit soon. Is there any update on him?

[laddo]

That's the huge bonus and advantage we potentially have over other promotion rivals a player of his quality returning. However I'm concerned it's going to be an issue for the majority of the season.

They are obvious still in the best position and could easily go on a great run again but just a few weeks ago didn't look like anyone could catch them. No longer the case.

You can still get 16/1 on Hartlepool for the title, they look fantastic odds.

[BigFatPie]

As it stands, I just don’t think we have the attacking potential to go on the sort of run that would get us the top spot. Even if we had, I’m not sure Ardley would use it to his biggest advantage.

If Cal Roberts comes back soon fit and firing that might change, but losing both Dennis and Thomas from last season’s squad means we look a bit toothless. Knowles has to play a bigger part as well.

[Ayeayeskipper]

As it stands, I just don’t think we have the attacking potential to go on the sort of run that would get us the top spot. Even if we had, I’m not sure Ardley would use it to his biggest advantage.

If Cal Roberts comes back soon fit and firing that might change, but losing both Dennis and Thomas from last season’s squad means we look a bit toothless. Knowles has to play a bigger part as well.

I'd have to agree.

[Stan Marshall]

Although we’ve got the best squad in the league, I’m not confident we can consistently break down teams who sit back and put 10 men behind the ball. We’ve also got a lot of away games on pitches not suited to our passing game.
However, like previous posters, I hope Roberts can make the difference. He can unlock defences and we certainly need someone else scoring on a regular basis.

[irish_pie]

As it stands, I just don’t think we have the attacking potential to go on the sort of run that would get us the top spot. Even if we had, I’m not sure Ardley would use it to his biggest advantage.

If Cal Roberts comes back soon fit and firing that might change, but losing both Dennis and Thomas from last season’s squad means we look a bit toothless. Knowles has to play a bigger part as well.

Exactly this.

[ncfcog]

Happy to see the faith I put in my xPTS analysis regarding Torquay is proving to be right in that they had been massively overachieving and their form was unsustainable.

With Roberts to come back and a new found confidence within the squad off the back of some good results absolutely no reason why Notts can’t now mount a challenge. Not bothered about thrashing teams, clean sheets and nasty 1-0 wins will do nicely … slowly, slowly catchy seagull.

[queenslandpie]

I am interested to know if the positivity is based on the whether we have recorded 4 successive wins at any point in the last 12 months.

[ncfcog]

I am interested to know if the positivity is based on the whether we have recorded 4 successive wins at any point in the last 12 months.

6 including the play off win over Barnet last season (from 29th Feb). We’ve not won 4 in a row yet this season but 5 wins and a draw in the last 7 so maybe that 4 in a row is not far away.

[Davy500]

Waits for the chorus of negativity.......

Its only a good thing if Torquay keep losing .. Guess Ardley will get the credit for that to , remember say 20 times

[laddo]

Let me get this right Davy, "it's only a good thing if Torquay keep on losing" so on that basis it's a bad thing if they start winning again?

Ok gotcha, seems straightforward.

[Notts78]

Like a few others on here I don’t see Torquay finishing top. They are starting to feel the pressure of the chasing pack who are nudging closer each week. These same teams like us, have yet to play the games in hand they have that could really turn the screw on them.
The play offs this season are going to present a much tougher challenge than last season as all the sides are decent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chesterfield in the play offs either along with Wrexham and the teams currently in the chase for top spot. As a minimum we have to finish in the top 3 so we have a home semi final (still not convinced being at home is a huge advantage). Our away form and how Ardley sets us up away isn’t ideal.
Having Roberts back for the run in is going to be massive to our chances of success.

[Davy500]

Let me get this right Davy, "it's only a good thing if Torquay keep on losing" so on that basis it's a bad thing if they start winning again?

Ok gotcha, seems straightforward.

I am glad you understand buddy ...
i am saying if Torquay fall apart- debatable at the moment - that is not down to Ardley. it reminds me of how Nolan got slated when yates left

it seems teams a lot of times teams rely on the capabilities of just a few players, Hughes and Smiechmel and Johnson and Cherry plus o,rierdon ring a big bell for me

[laddo]

Makes sense when they were running away with the league and winning every week that wasn't down to Ardley. Now they are losing a few neither is that down to the Notts manager.

Can't fault your logic although I'm not sure how many on here at all believe either scenario is down to our manager bar the 2 games we play scheduled to play against them of course.

[Davy500]

Meaning our rise to form last season was down to Roberts and Dennis, a rising tide makes all players look good ..

[Davy500]

If we had both players with us now - how gr8 could we be ..

[laddo]

I think our rise in form was down to far more than just two players but without doubt Roberts was superb for the limited time he played. A huge boost to the squad, great signing.

It would be good to have both but as the Dennis thread and his rumoured wage shows no way could we afford to keep him on at the club unless he took a big wage cut. If £4500 p/w is true or close that's an obscene amount for a L2 club with our gates.

[Davy500]

Yes he was one of the highest paid players without doubt - but goal scorers always demand higher wages -since the dawn of time - but you ask yourself how much is promotion worth ??

[Davy500]

Think it was Dennis goal that got us a chance of promotion after the semi final playoffs last season

[laddo]

They do indeed and rightly so but would Dennis guarantee promotion this season if he had stayed? I seriously doubt it especially if it resulted in a Roberts / Wootton / Thomas leaving to balance the books.

As we know Dennis, Enzio, Hemmings were all brought it at great expense to chase promotion and the financial worth it brings. We certainly don't want to go down that overstretching of finances to seek promotion route again.

[Davy500]

Not so sure Laddo - I think Denis would already be contributing to quite a few more points for us this season

[durhampie]

Im positive we will not be relegated this season...

[laddo]

Not so sure Laddo - I think Denis would already be contributing to quite a few more points for us this season

Maybe but at what cost? I like him as a player but he didn't do enough for me last season to warrant building your side around as a top earner (that's assuming we could get near his wage demands). I liked Dennis for home games but I witnessed too many away from home that season where he disappeared, much preferred Thomas' work rate and showing.

If cost doesn't come into it then I definitely would want Dennis in our squad this season especially now Thomas has left.

[Davy500]

Maybe but at what cost? I like him as a player but he didn't do enough for me last season to warrant building your side around as a top earner (that's assuming we could get near his wage demands). I liked Dennis for home games but I witnessed too many away from home that season where he disappeared, much preferred Thomas' work rate and showing.

If cost doesn't come into it then I definitely would want Dennis in our squad this season especially now Thomas has left.

A few things- in the play off final - Dennis went off at half time, having rarely touched the ball in the first half, surely that is not Dennis fault, as most of the play was in our half, because of Harragates high press
As for the away form last season, as for Dennis disappearing, think that was more to do with Ardleys negative tactics, of defense and playing for the point ( Ardley a one trick pony, his style has remained over 2 years - maybe it will come good in the end ?)

I agree about if cost does not come into it, but it always does for this type of player. We all know Dennis has not been replaced this season, and i believe to our detriment ,as some good goal scorers now for notts is the missing link-

[the_anticlough]

I'd say we have a fair chance of finishing above Torquay (20/25% ?), but as others have said this would be because they fall back into the pack rather than us winning 8 on the bounce or something like that.

Not all sides are great front runners and current form suggests that Torquay are no Barrow. And as many of us said at the start of the season, the only clubs capable of a Barrow-like run to take it completely away from us are Stockport and Hartlepool. February will be an interesting month.

[laddo]

Davy I wasn't talking about the play off final specifically I don't blame Dennis at all as most of the Notts team were a no show and performed poorly in that first half.

Agree that NA's defensive tactics didn't suit him especially away from home.

You can't blame Dennis (& his agent) for getting such a great financial deal out of an enthusiastic Hardy. We'd all do the same, the problem is he then in effect prices himself out of staying at that club.

Even if he had been prepared to take a large drop in salary. I wouldn't take him in place of Wootton, Roberts, or Enzio based on their respective perfomances last season. To me it was either Dennis or Thomas for this season regardless of the financial side of it.

We couldn't keep them all obviously ££££ and would have rather kept the 3 above named players for this season.

[magpie_mania]

I am glad you understand buddy ...
i am saying if Torquay fall apart- debatable at the moment - that is not down to Ardley. it reminds me of how Nolan got slated when yates left

it seems teams a lot of times teams rely on the capabilities of just a few players, Hughes and Smiechmel and Johnson and Cherry plus o,rierdon ring a big bell for me

This post shows exactly why I decided a couple of weeks ago to rein in the number of times I post and look at this board.

The constant you are either 'pro-Ardley' or 'anti-Ardley' - the ridiculous making excuses for why we win and seemingly showing great delight at when we don't. Now - we have the excuses already for if (and it is a massive if) we were to catch Torquay.

I have always thought that there are some on here who for some strange reason that I can't explain, look forward to 4.55pm on a Saturday if we've lost. The same ones probably who seem to look forward to certain players making mistakes. Nothing has happened to make me change my mind.

The board has gone downhill - abuse is increasing, language doesn't matter anymore, constant spats between some posters.

I now have a glance occasionally - and that's probably too many!.

COYP!

[Davy500]

This post shows exactly why I decided a couple of weeks ago to rein in the number of times I post and look at this board.

The constant you are either 'pro-Ardley' or 'anti-Ardley' - the ridiculous making excuses for why we win and seemingly showing great delight at when we don't. Now - we have the excuses already for if (and it is a massive if) we were to catch Torquay.

I have always thought that there are some on here who for some strange reason that I can't explain, look forward to 4.55pm on a Saturday if we've lost. The same ones probably who seem to look forward to certain players making mistakes. Nothing has happened to make me change my mind.

The board has gone downhill - abuse is increasing, language doesn't matter anymore, constant spats between some posters.

I now have a glance occasionally - and that's probably too many!.

COYP!

Well don,t let us keep you then , and nothing has changed about you being in the Ardley club.

[countygump]

This post shows exactly why I decided a couple of weeks ago to rein in the number of times I post and look at this board.

The constant you are either 'pro-Ardley' or 'anti-Ardley' - the ridiculous making excuses for why we win and seemingly showing great delight at when we don't. Now - we have the excuses already for if (and it is a massive if) we were to catch Torquay.

I have always thought that there are some on here who for some strange reason that I can't explain, look forward to 4.55pm on a Saturday if we've lost. The same ones probably who seem to look forward to certain players making mistakes. Nothing has happened to make me change my mind.

The board has gone downhill - abuse is increasing, language doesn't matter anymore, constant spats between some posters.

I now have a glance occasionally - and that's probably too many!.

COYP!


At the risk of plagiarizing Eli, the board is what it is, MM. Posters will post what they wanna post and as long as they stick within the rules laid down by the boards owners, whatcha gonna do? There's always the option that's available to all of us, if you don't like it, don't read it/post on it or be involved with it.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

Happy to see the faith I put in my xPTS analysis regarding Torquay is proving to be right in that they had been massively overachieving and their form was unsustainable.

With Roberts to come back and a new found confidence within the squad off the back of some good results absolutely no reason why Notts can’t now mount a challenge. Not bothered about thrashing teams, clean sheets and nasty 1-0 wins will do nicely … slowly, slowly catchy seagull.

Yes it's good analysis that you provide. Earlier in the season I posted on here the average points for the title over the past six seasons and it worked out at 2.03 points per game. I think at one point not too long ago Torquay were about 2.5ppg which unless they were a machine some levelling off would be expected to happen at some point. Cheltenham have finished the season with the highest ppg in this time with 2.19ppg.

Torquay have now played 21 and have 43 points so have levelled off to 2.05ppg which is almost bang on the average.

We have played 17 games and have 30 points giving us 1.76ppg. Currently we should be on around 34-35 points based on the number of games played to be at a title form level of 2.03ppg so actually not too far off. Dare I mention the dropped points at Dover and other games.

The target needs to be 90 points to be in with a chance of winning the title. So we need 60 points from 30 games remaining. For example that's 18 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats.

I guess it's possible but I do feel we will need to score more goals to be in with a chance. As others have said losing Dennis, Thomas and Roberts goals has been a blow this season.

[ncfcog]

Yes it's good analysis that you provide. Earlier in the season I posted on here the average points for the title over the past six seasons and it worked out at 2.03 points per game. I think at one point not too long ago Torquay were about 2.5ppg which unless they were a machine some levelling off would be expected to happen at some point. Cheltenham have finished the season with the highest ppg in this time with 2.19ppg.

Torquay have now played 21 and have 43 points so have levelled off to 2.05ppg which is almost bang on the average.

We have played 17 games and have 30 points giving us 1.76ppg. Currently we should be on around 34-35 points based on the number of games played to be at a title form level of 2.03ppg so actually not too far off. Dare I mention the dropped points at Dover and other games.

The target needs to be 90 points to be in with a chance of winning the title. So we need 60 points from 30 games remaining. For example that's 18 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats.

I guess it's possible but I do feel we will need to score more goals to be in with a chance. As others have said losing Dennis, Thomas and Roberts goals has been a blow this season.


That's really interesting regarding the PPG averages and you're right about points dropped but for me we really only deserved to drop the 1 point at Dover and maybe the 2 points at Halifax due to Turners slip up, the other games we could have won had we taken our chances which would have seen us at the points total you mentioned.

Thanks for showing an interest in the analysis as well, it's always nice when it provokes someone into a response that creates a healthy discussion about the actual football.

[Ayeayeskipper]

This post shows exactly why I decided a couple of weeks ago to rein in the number of times I post and look at this board.

The constant you are either 'pro-Ardley' or 'anti-Ardley' - the ridiculous making excuses for why we win and seemingly showing great delight at when we don't. Now - we have the excuses already for if (and it is a massive if) we were to catch Torquay.

I have always thought that there are some on here who for some strange reason that I can't explain, look forward to 4.55pm on a Saturday if we've lost. The same ones probably who seem to look forward to certain players making mistakes. Nothing has happened to make me change my mind.

The board has gone downhill - abuse is increasing, language doesn't matter anymore, constant spats between some posters.

I now have a glance occasionally - and that's probably too many!.

COYP!

I thought we were one idiot short! Who says I don't do tea & sympathy.