In Defence of Possession

[ncfcog]

Luke Williams’ Notts County averaged the thick end of 70% possession on their way to promotion back to the EFL.

In this article we look at data from the 2022/23 National League season and ask the question “is there any correlation between possession and defensive resilience?”

https://www.analystsbar.com/post/in-defence-of-possession

[Notts78]

Luke Williams’ Notts County averaged the thick end of 70% possession on their way to promotion back to the EFL.

In this article we look at data from the 2022/23 National League season and ask the question “is there any correlation between possession and defensive resilience?”

https://www.analystsbar.com/post/in-defence-of-possession

Top work as always.

I flicked through so apologies if this bit is covered. It’s worth noting average position of players. I would hazard a not so wild guess that our players are on average further up the pitch. Hence high line, hence potential exposure to counter attacks as more players are committed. Any stats on this?

[ncfcog]

That’s a good point and I think I touch on it a bit in the article. One thing I’ll have access to next season is match by match team heatmaps so this will help provide some of the context you’re looking at.

[jackal2]

Very interesting analysis.

There have been several games this season where we've retained the ball so brilliantly, and won it back so high up the field if we lose it, that the opposition have barely troubled our goalkeeper, but it would seem that in those games against stronger opponents where we can't control the game quite as much and opponents do get close enough to have shots on our goal, we are quite vulnerable to conceding.

This tallies with the impression I've had of the team watching games subjectively and emotionally, rather than looking objectively at the data. Our record clearly shows that we've got a very good defensive record, but I actually don't think players like Kyle Cameron and Aden Baldwin are particularly good defenders. I think they're often slow to sense and react to danger. What they are - without a doubt - is very good footballers with more skill than you would normally expect from players in defensive positions at this level, so when it comes to not misplacing passes and having the skill to be able to take a risk and beat an opponent, their skillset is perfect for retaining possession and simply preventing the opponent from having enough of the ball to do damage.

As we progress to the higher level of League Two and hopefully beyond, we're obviously less likely to dominate the ball as much and have as many games going all our own way, which is why I think the recruitment during the summer needs to include a couple of 'proper' defenders who can cope in games where we come under pressure, especially away from home.

[ncfcog]

Agree with all of that. I have absolutely no reason to believe we won’t be an attacking threat again but our resilience at the back could be exposed if we don’t strengthen.

[BJPIE]

Very interesting analysis.

There have been several games this season where we've retained the ball so brilliantly, and won it back so high up the field if we lose it, that the opposition have barely troubled our goalkeeper, but it would seem that in those games against stronger opponents where we can't control the game quite as much and opponents do get close enough to have shots on our goal, we are quite vulnerable to conceding.

This tallies with the impression I've had of the team watching games subjectively and emotionally, rather than looking objectively at the data. Our record clearly shows that we've got a very good defensive record, but I actually don't think players like Kyle Cameron and Aden Baldwin are particularly good defenders. I think they're often slow to sense and react to danger. What they are - without a doubt - is very good footballers with more skill than you would normally expect from players in defensive positions at this level, so when it comes to not misplacing passes and having the skill to be able to take a risk and beat an opponent, their skillset is perfect for retaining possession and simply preventing the opponent from having enough of the ball to do damage.

As we progress to the higher level of League Two and hopefully beyond, we're obviously less likely to dominate the ball as much and have as many games going all our own way, which is why I think the recruitment during the summer needs to include a couple of 'proper' defenders who can cope in games where we come under pressure, especially away from home.
You put it so much better thanI could Jackal. I agree, but would just of said Baldwin and Camerons games are riddled with errors. Baldwin quick enough to recover, Cameron not so. Rawlinson makes less errors but possibly the slowest of the 3. We need significant reinforcement in defence.

[laddo]

Great post by Jackal
Agree we need reinforcements in central defence. However it's a balancing act, 'proper defenders ' can often be interpreted as nonsense kick it, head it, strong, but usually slow and limited on the ball , Mark Ellis being a good example in recent times for Notts. Yes we want less mistakes , more anticipation, putting defending first above everything else but too much/many proper defenders would potentially cause us all sorts of issues with our style of play assuming it will be very similar next season. You wouldn't want a defence of Rawlinson, Ellis, Strodder for example in our system and way of playing. Extreme example but hopefully get my point.

At NL and now L2 level all defenders have weaknesses the key I believe is getting a combination that hides them. Totally believe our 70% possession hid a lot of our defensive weaknesses as the number of goals conceded showed.

[1955pie]

Brilliant article.
Perhaps what we are all seem to be saying when we look at the goals conceded per shots faced, is that our defenders are not good enough or perhaps more accurately that they are not the right defenders for the system we play.
On the plus side with the signing of Will Randall who may well be our LWB it will free up Adam Chicksen to play in the back 3 if needed and TAR hopefully wii get more game time and he is definitely a better defender than Aaaron Nemane.

[TSANHO]

Yes, great post by Jackal. If we’re to stick with a back three then perhaps the CB should be more of a typical defender in the Turner or Rawlo mould, and the RCB and LCB be more of the Baldwin and Cameron types? Even better, get the radar to find people are fantastic at both! I’ve said it before but I think TAR may be an option at RCB at some point.

[the_anticlough]

I think all we need is a top signing for Right Back (now we're committed to the back three I'd like the nomenclature to shift to just RB, CB, LB and that's it). Rawlo could be understudy at CB and fight for his place mainly there and at RB if we're short

If you think of the Dobra goal...everyone would have been wanting Rawlo to show Dobra down the line. But he couldn't do that for fear of being skinned and how bad that would have looked. So Dobra was given more chance to come inside and that goal might have done for us. We need a great one-on-one defender with strength, pace and ball skills at RB to complement Cameron and Baldwin

[Mud Pie]

You put it so much better thanI could Jackal. I agree, but would just of said Baldwin and Camerons games are riddled with errors. Baldwin quick enough to recover, Cameron not so. Rawlinson makes less errors but possibly the slowest of the 3. We need significant reinforcement in defence.

Agree with this. Defensively, we muddled through some of the games towards the end of the season. IFeel our present trio may be nearing the peak of their potential and it might not be enough for us to push on as a team. Hope they can all prove me wrong, cuz I love The Undeniables to bits! but in my opinion, including goalie, defence is the area is the main area we need to continue to develop, maybe including LW's strategizing.

[laddo]

Kyle Walker, there's ya man AC. Can do all those things and more.

Sorted.

[Mud Pie]

If you think of the Dobra goal...everyone would have been wanting Rawlo to show Dobra down the line. But he couldn't do that for fear of being skinned and how bad that would have looked. So Dobra was given more chance to come inside and that goal might have done for us. We need a great one-on-one defender with strength, pace and ball skills at RB to complement Cameron and Baldwin

Agree, Dobra shouldn't have been allowed to shoot so easily from there. That was a bit of a classic mistake.

[laddo]

It was also one of the those goals, especially with the viewing angle I had, where you know it's in as soon as it's left his foot. Poor defending, great finish from a talented player, cocky celebration, unlikeable lad.

[the_anticlough]

Kyle Walker, there's ya man AC. Can do all those things and more.

Sorted.

It's interesting that he starting out as a full-back at Spurs and then adapted to the 3 - a lower league version of him is what I imagine the radar is looking for. It won't be a traditional centre-half will it? Even if they have the centre in mind, it's going to be someone with pace I think. But I reckon they'll target the right side.
We've tried Sam Graham 3 times in 4 years, that says a lot to me. I think we'll bring in someone in that mould.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

Very interesting analysis.

There have been several games this season where we've retained the ball so brilliantly, and won it back so high up the field if we lose it, that the opposition have barely troubled our goalkeeper, but it would seem that in those games against stronger opponents where we can't control the game quite as much and opponents do get close enough to have shots on our goal, we are quite vulnerable to conceding.

This tallies with the impression I've had of the team watching games subjectively and emotionally, rather than looking objectively at the data. Our record clearly shows that we've got a very good defensive record, but I actually don't think players like Kyle Cameron and Aden Baldwin are particularly good defenders. I think they're often slow to sense and react to danger. What they are - without a doubt - is very good footballers with more skill than you would normally expect from players in defensive positions at this level, so when it comes to not misplacing passes and having the skill to be able to take a risk and beat an opponent, their skillset is perfect for retaining possession and simply preventing the opponent from having enough of the ball to do damage.

As we progress to the higher level of League Two and hopefully beyond, we're obviously less likely to dominate the ball as much and have as many games going all our own way, which is why I think the recruitment during the summer needs to include a couple of 'proper' defenders who can cope in games where we come under pressure, especially away from home.

With any style of playing it's about risk v reward and the rewards last season far out weighed the risks with how we played. In the National League our style of play worked. Will it work in league two? Maybe, maybe not. The defenders we have and also the goalkeeper in the style we play are the beginning of the attacks and so like you say are able to play football, pass and dominate the opposition in their own half. The high line allows them to almost be deep holding midfielders and wing backs are essentially wingers and as a unit they pick out passes and probe the opposition.

I can't see our principles of play changing dramatically, more refining and tweaking like what we have seen over the past four seasons. We may end up with defenders who have been in lower league teams who have played out from the back, and are pacey so can recover if we play a high line and are beaten, but also know how to defend robustly when required.

[Notts78]

It's interesting that he starting out as a full-back at Spurs and then adapted to the 3 - a lower league version of him is what I imagine the radar is looking for. It won't be a traditional centre-half will it? Even if they have the centre in mind, it's going to be someone with pace I think. But I reckon they'll target the right side.
We've tried Sam Graham 3 times in 4 years, that says a lot to me. I think we'll bring in someone in that mould.

The conundrum is that more often than not pace and height in footballers don’t go hand in hand. Kyle Walker is very good, BUT, how many premier league teams have 6ft 4 forwards where the ball is put on them? Wimbledon of the 80’s would be brutal on the likes of Walker.
I guarantee if we go for pace at the back, folk will start moaning when we start conceding from set pieces because we lack height and physicality.
Thankfully LW probably isn’t as worried as some are on here about L2. Assuming Cameron signs I can’t see more than 1 further defender being added.

[the_anticlough]

The conundrum is that more often than not pace and height in footballers don’t go hand in hand. Kyle Walker is very good, BUT, how many premier league teams have 6ft 4 forwards where the ball is put on them? Wimbledon of the 80’s would be brutal on the likes of Walker.
I guarantee if we go for pace at the back, folk will start moaning when we start conceding from set pieces because we lack height and physicality.
Thankfully LW probably isn’t as worried as some are on here about L2. Assuming Cameron signs I can’t see more than 1 further defender being added.

That's why Sowumni from Bromley was a good shout. As an example
I think we can get somebody at 6ft who is still quick and ticks the other boxes

[Jampie]

Great analysis. I think our defence is brittle, like over-hardened steel. While the outer edge isn't penetrated (we have high line possession) it's very strong, but lose possession in our own half and we're in deeper trouble than most.

I think that's mostly down to our tactics, and that's not a bad thing, it's an inevitable side effect. We operated an almost extreme attacking-oriented system for the whole season.

At its worst, our defence consists of a back three, two of whom have a strong attacking focus, and a goalkeeper who is also trying to attack as much as possible. And the result was... we scored a massive amount of goals, and conceded relatively few, except when our brittle defence collapsed. I suspect we'll be "found out" like that more often in L2, but hopefully we'll still be highly competitive.

And I wouldn't swap our system with boreham's for all the tea in china.

[Proactive not Reactive]

With any style of playing it's about risk v reward and the rewards last season far out weighed the risks with how we played. In the National League our style of play worked. Will it work in league two? Maybe, maybe not. The defenders we have and also the goalkeeper in the style we play are the beginning of the attacks and so like you say are able to play football, pass and dominate the opposition in their own half. The high line allows them to almost be deep holding midfielders and wing backs are essentially wingers and as a unit they pick out passes and probe the opposition.

I can't see our principles of play changing dramatically, more refining and tweaking like what we have seen over the past four seasons. We may end up with defenders who have been in lower league teams who have played out from the back, and are pacey so can recover if we play a high line and are beaten, but also know how to defend robustly when required.

No I think we will play the same way with perhaps both Bostock and Palmer playing as a defensive pivot(especially away from home) covering the wing backs and covering the centre backs when they travel with the ball.
I think and would hope we will sign another tall pacey centre back who can damage the opposition if they leave him as the overload.
Interesting how Boreham let Baldwin be the overload in the semi final but after 3 excellent shots including our goal of the season Chesterfield closed that up at Wembley.
TBH during the rest of the season Baldwin has shot 30 feet over the bar when he has been the overload and shot for goal to the point where the fans are telling him not to shoot ha ha little did we know !!