Safe at last

[magicianpie]

I know it was reasonably unlikely.

But as a Notts fan. Always good to get to 50 points.

[the_anticlough]

Ages spent in the 40s, brilliant to see us jump over 50pts tonight. And yes, we go from 99% to 100% safe tonight.

[Woodypie]

Ages spent in the 40s, brilliant to see us jump over 50pts tonight. And yes, we go from 99% to 100% safe tonight. Not quite, another 3 points I think. Which will take Maynard 8 games to get. Probably.

[ForeignLegion]

Not quite, another 3 points I think. Which will take Maynard 8 games to get. Probably.

What a bundle of joy….negativity at its absolute peak.

[OchPie]

We aren't mathematically safe, though to be bottom Sutton would have to win every match and us pick up no more points, AND they'd have to overturn the 31 goal difference between us. One more point (or their next failure to win) and they can't catch us.

FGR's maximum return is now 57, Colchester's is 63, and Grimsby's is 66. I reckon we should be 100% safe within 3 games. Can't see us going down from here though, and if we can keep up the standards of that second half we shouldn't have to worry.

[Old_pie]

We aren't mathematically safe, though to be bottom Sutton would have to win every match and us pick up no more points, AND they'd have to overturn the 31 goal difference between us. One more point (or their next failure to win) and they can't catch us.

FGR's maximum return is now 57, Colchester's is 63, and Grimsby's is 66. I reckon we should be 100% safe within 3 games. Can't see us going down from here though, and if we can keep up the standards of that second half we shouldn't have to worry.

We've done this sort of thing before. All the bottom teams cannot get maximum points as they will lose points to eachother. I'd suggest there is no combination of results that could see us relegated.

[the_anticlough]

We've done this sort of thing before. All the bottom teams cannot get maximum points as they will lose points to each other. I'd suggest there is no combination of results that could see us relegated.

Those maximums sound like there probably does still exist some combinations of results - but the statistical likelihood is infinitesimal. I think those 4pts away more or less sealed our safety.

[Wedgie_pie]

Won't be happy until it's mathematically impossible to go down...Mind have you seen the Forest Green run in Donny, Crewe, Mansfield, Wrexham, Morecambe (Away) Stockport, MK Dons, Notts, (Home)

[upthemaggies]

Leaving Sutton aside, I'm fairly sure the rest below us can win all of their games except to lose to anybody they play below them and they all get to 57 or more points that way. Obviously that's not going to happen though, it 's really not worth worrying about now. Doncaster could probably lose every game now and stay up, maybe even Salford and Swindon. I can't see FGR or Sutton getting any more than 45 points.

[OchPie]

This is what happens if every team below us wins every fixture left against teams currently above them.

Sutton - 51 pts
FGR - 57 pts
Colchester - 63 pts
Grimsby - 63 pts
Salford - 62 pts
Swindon - 59 pts
Donc - 67 pts
Bradford - 68 pts
Accrington - 68 pts
Tranmere - 62 pts
Harrogate - 63 pts

We're close but not there mathematically yet. Five of our last 8 games are against teams in that list.

[Woodypie]

There is indeed still a possibility of relegation. Not likely, but another three points would be nice. Fingers crossed.

[Magpie1984]

Come on guys, I’m thinking more positively that we’re far nearer playoffs than thinking relegation. Personally I think we will finish middle ish- was a superb result at Bradford. We had a rough run but I’m optimistic we pick up some more wins before the end

[OchPie]

Come on guys, I’m thinking more positively that we’re far nearer playoffs than thinking relegation. Personally I think we will finish middle ish- was a superb result at Bradford. We had a rough run but I’m optimistic we pick up some more wins before the end

To be fair, I was tracking this last season too :)

Old Notts habits die hard.

[1955pie]

This is what happens if every team below us wins every fixture left against teams currently above them.

Sutton - 51 pts
FGR - 57 pts
Colchester - 63 pts
Grimsby - 63 pts
Salford - 62 pts
Swindon - 59 pts
Donc - 67 pts
Bradford - 68 pts
Accrington - 68 pts
Tranmere - 62 pts
Harrogate - 63 pts

We're close but not there mathematically yet. Five of our last 8 games are against teams in that list.

Lets get this into perspective. Ypu can't get any odds on Notts' relegation.
Best odds on promotion 66/1 Worst 19/1
Says it all. But then again you can dream.

[tied_up_in_notts]

I would love it if we send FGR back where they belong on the last day of the season

[OP67]

I would love it if we send FGR back where they belong on the last day of the season

And us snatch a play off place ;D

[tied_up_in_notts]

And us snatch a play off place ;D
What a finish to the season that would be

[MAD_MAGPIE]

I know it was reasonably unlikely.

But as a Notts fan. Always good to get to 50 points.

The first target of any season is to get to 50 points and take it from there. Thankfully we have got over the line with 8 games remaining. In the past ten seasons the most anyone has gone down with is 50 points which was Bristol City in 2013/14 so statistically we are there if not mathematically yet which should come by Easter.

It seems an age since we went into the 40-50 point zone and looking back it was the 5-0 win over Morecombe on 29th December. So it’s taken us 14 games to get into the 50-60 point zone.

Our average points per game is 1.34 ppg so on this basis we would finish on 61/62 points. Last season that would put us 9th to 10th and generally is a mid table finish. I’d take that now and it would mean an upturn of three wins and a draw from the last eight games.

A win on Saturday at home is what we need just to seal it but more importantly give all those who have not seen us win at Newport or Bradford and play well against Wrexham and Mansfield to have something positive to take going forward.

[the_anticlough]

Can't see this thread title without this popping into my head (first 3 words of the reoccurring chorus)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1dGD91K0XQ

[Davy500]

What a bundle of joy….negativity at its absolute peak.

Why be a bundle of joy for no reason ??