Good Luck, Bad Luck & the Percentages Game

As the controversy over the refereeing in the play off semi-final rumbles on, i'm amazed that nobody has considered how luck has a habit of evening itself out over a season.

Yes there were some poor calls by the referees in these 2 games but if we are honest we know full well that NCFC had more than their fair share of ridiculous refereeing decisions that went in our favour and gave us points towards the total needed to reach the play offs, that we would not have had if the referees in question had not made mistakes in our favour.

There are many decisions that have gone our way this season, but the three that stand out the most are the sendings off of opposition players in the first half of the home games against Chesterfield, Lincoln and Newport. All 3 sendings of were at best 'soft' and at worst an absolute travesty. They came when the games were clearly in the balance and in effect they gave Notts the 3 points.

It's time that Nolan stopped bleating about poor refereeing and admit that we have had a lot of game changing decisions given in our favour.

For me the reason we failed in the playoffs was that over the 2 games Coventry were significantly better than us. Our Stone Age hoofball has clearly been rumbled by a lot of opposition clubs in this league.

We were not good enough to get promoted - it's as simple as that.

I think we certainly had the rub of the green in the first half of the season, but not a lot went in our favour after Christmas. We never really looked like a playoff team, but we were a playoff team on merit. You must admit that it's a bit hard to take when the officials hand you a three goal handicap in a two-leg game!

I agree with the broad point that we were just short this season of what was needed to be promoted. In my view, it's an opportunity this summer to build on the foundations already in place and be a stronger team next year, more equipped to move up to League one.

However, I'm amazed at the number of people who DO still fall back on the old "luck will even itself out" argument regarding officiating. Like I've said in a previous thread, this is not the 1930's jolly old game, jumpers for goalposts, tea and scones after the match era anymore. Football today is a deadly serious professional sport on which millions are won and lost in a variety of ways by clubs and punters alike.

It just isn't good enough to say "luck will even itself out". That's an amateurish attitude in a sport that is now (otherwise) intensely professional, with data analysis, sports science etc. It should not be possible for games as important as the Football League play-offs to be significantly affected by whether a random referee has a good or bad day. The measures should be in place to ensure a much greater kevel of accuracy in decision-making, whether it's higher quality training and professionalism for referees, or new technologies to assist them, or both.

That’s interesting which games did we get the rub of the green? I can think of two games where the refereee cost us points off the bat,

Wycombe - Ameobi shirt pulled for what should have been a penalty.

Mansfield - 7 minute added on they got gifted a penalty with a ball to hand incident. Last kick of the ball.

I’m definitely not a bias fan, I shake my head when Duffy was diving to the floor looking for a foul, or when Stead throws both his hands in the air and hits the ground as he is beaten to an aerial ball.

We definitely push the boundaries with the way we play, but that’s generally what experienced players do.

Often this season I have left the game with few good words to say about the officiating, would be surprised if any Notts fan disagreed with that.

The joke refereeing decisions given in our favour, (particularly before Christmas), gave us the points we needed to make the play offs . So for me we got what we deserved - nowt.

I really don't think Nolan is doing himself, or our club, any favours by this constant bleating about poor refereeing. I would have more respect for him if he said: wow we got lucky with the refereeing today. Instead he trots out the usual managerial tosh, about not seeing the decision. Of course when it comes to a bad decision given against us, he's got his slide rule and camera out for the offside or any other infringement.

I hope he learns from this year's experience and gives his Stone Age football thinking a makeover.

Sorry but we came up short because we were just not good enough.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pravda_plc

I really don't think Nolan is doing himself, or our club, any favours by this constant bleating about poor refereeing. I would have more respect for him if he said: wow we got lucky with the refereeing today. Instead he trots out the usual managerial tosh, about not seeing the decision. Of course when it comes to a bad decision given against us, he's got his slide rule and camera out for the offside or any other infringement.

I hope he learns from this year's experience and gives his Stone Age football thinking a makeover.

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The same general approach employed by Sir Alex Ferguson and Jose Mourinho, two of the most successful football managers ever.

I know when you're a kid you're taught that politeness and respect will impress people and put you first in the queue, but that's tosh, sadly. The people who get the most, generally speaking, are the ones who fight and scrap and complain. Nice guys finish last, by and large.

Nice guys finish last, by and large

You mean like Pele, Cruyff, the Bobbys Robson, Moore and Charlton.
Oh yeah, I get your drift...

Yeovil and Stevenage away we were denied absolute stone wall penalties ok we have to score them but that's 4 extra points there.

I know you have some good luck in games and some bad luck but I hate the phrase it all evens itself out I can bet you that it doesn't and with the money / technology in the game it shouldn't be that way.

Nolan is correct to say that premier league refs should be in all the play off matches if available which they were the stakes are too high for a rookie to be taking charge in my opinion, if anything some good might come of it as I think VAR will be in for next years play offs which is a huge step forward.

Good and bad luck (if there are such things) will even things out but it may take longer than you think. F'rinstance, if Notts were to get penalties and free kicks which were blatantly unfair and the opposition were denied the same when they were fair or had players sent off unfairly, how long before these were evened out? It may not be before season's end or even the next season. Could it be it five years' time? If it was, you can bet no-one will remember our "lucky" year when we won everything, just the present "unlucky" one, when we won nothing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sidders

Nice guys finish last, by and large

You mean like Pele, Cruyff, the Bobbys Robson, Moore and Charlton.
Oh yeah, I get your drift...

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Perhaps it says something that all of your examples come from a bygone era of football.

Let me make it clear, I'm not saying I like the modern reality, but it is what it is. I would describe somebody like Jurgen Klopp as a modern day nice guy, but I suspect if the officials make a balls up this Saturday night, he won't be reluctant to let them know!