Vote Of Confidence In The Conservative Party Leader, 6:00pm to 8:00pm
Between 6:00pm and 8:00pm this evening there will be a Vote Of Confidence in the Conservative Party Leader. The electorate is the Conservative Parliamentary Party of 358 MPs.
I would like a win for the incumbent Leader by 198 votes for and 160 votes against. By the rules this would be a win and he could carry on without there being another such vote for another year. By that time there would be mixed feelings amongst Conservative MPs about doing this again, it being too close to the possible time range in which the next General Election could occur. That would be an interesting dilemma, a certainty of losing the General Election if the incumbent remains in place against the certainty of losing the General Election under a new leader who will not have enough time to establish his / her credibility.
As for the current contest a win for the incumbent by 198 to 160 would cause civil war in the Conservative Party, which would be a satisfactory result.