Cup draw

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29-09-2023, 05:01 AM
Marat18

Cup draw

Just read that manutd have 12 consecutive home draws in the cups, thats 0.025% chance ffs!
Out of all the teams, who would have thought, right?!
29-09-2023, 08:40 AM
ex_pat_magpie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marat18

Just read that manutd have 12 consecutive home draws in the cups, thats 0.025% chance ffs!
Out of all the teams, who would have thought, right?!

This next meeting is going to be a draw minus two goals for them.

Revenge to us for the last time we met them in this cup. 2-0 to the Toon. ;D
29-09-2023, 09:21 AM
toptoon

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marat18

Just read that manutd have 12 consecutive home draws in the cups, thats 0.025% chance ffs!
Out of all the teams, who would have thought, right?!

Not so impossible to happen when the bloke making the draw is looking at the balls before picking.
29-09-2023, 02:16 PM
Kal

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marat18

Just read that manutd have 12 consecutive home draws in the cups, thats 0.025% chance ffs!
Out of all the teams, who would have thought, right?!

Bent! and they don't even hide it.
29-09-2023, 06:21 PM
Nufcian

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marat18

Just read that manutd have 12 consecutive home draws in the cups, thats 0.025% chance ffs!
Out of all the teams, who would have thought, right?!

It’s 50/50, previous draws have no bearing on the next.

They could have had all away, a perfect split, 70/30, 30/70, and the chance of any of them happening is exactly the same.
29-09-2023, 07:05 PM
Sclox

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nufcian

It’s 50/50, previous draws have no bearing on the next.

They could have had all away, a perfect split, 70/30, 30/70, and the chance of any of them happening is exactly the same.

The odds of it happening is 4,096/1.

Maybe a better way to highlight it.
29-09-2023, 07:15 PM
ex_pat_magpie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sclox

The odds of it happening is 4,096/1.

Maybe a better way to highlight it.

Spot on with the maths Sclox >;)
29-09-2023, 07:32 PM
Marat18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nufcian

It’s 50/50, previous draws have no bearing on the next.

They could have had all away, a perfect split, 70/30, 30/70, and the chance of any of them happening is exactly the same.

Not exactly.
Perfect split in any order has the highest probability of 22.56% (4.43/1).
Point is, out of 4096 different outcomes those lucky mancs have the best one
29-09-2023, 08:17 PM
ex_pat_magpie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marat18

Not exactly.
Perfect split in any order has the highest probability of 22.56% (4.43/1).
Point is, out of 4096 different outcomes those lucky mancs have the best one

That wasn't luck. It was corruption. :?
29-09-2023, 08:49 PM
Nufcian

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marat18

Not exactly.
Perfect split in any order has the highest probability of 22.56% (4.43/1).
Point is, out of 4096 different outcomes those lucky mancs have the best one

Fair enough, been a long time since A Level statistics and NCR notation, and I was talking bo11ocks :-)

Thing is, there’s more chance of this being a natural occurrence than a group of people have somehow influenced and gotten away with a 12 streak of fixing Man Utd being drawn at home, with most (if not all) draws taking place live on TV, with different people drawing the balls, from different locations and from different receptacles .

There was tan late last year that Leeds has a long run of being drawn away in the FA Cup, 9 or 10 times I think, it can happen and there’s no reason to get all X Files about it.