xG - hype or valuable stat?

As an old school type, I obviously go for hype. Is it a more valuable stat than shots, shots on target? I don't think it is.

Here's some examples from last weekend

Luton 1.75 Sheff U 1.56. The result was 1-3
Villa 2.45 Utd 1.9. The result was 1-2
Red Dogs 1.25 Toon 0.68. The result was 2-3
Fulham 1.75 B'mouth 2.61. The result was 3-1

Shots/shots on were

Luton 20/5 Sheff U 7/3.
Villa 23/10 Utd 17/5.
Red Dogs 13/3 Toon 7/5.
Fulham 7/6 B'mouth 25/4.

Look at xG and, in all 4 cases the team with the better xG lost. Look at shots and the team with the most shots lost. Shots on target sees Luton and Villa losing despite more SOT and then Toon and Fulham having more SOT and winning.

IMO xG is no better a stat than shots/SOT. In the end, it all comes down to creating chances, making the decision to shoot and then whether it's off target, on target but saved/blocked or on target and in.

In the interest of balance, there were other games where the side with the best xG won.

Sadly football is falling prey to meaningless stats in the was American Football and baseball in the states have.

Perhaps sabermatics type coaches will use these indicators but for the man in the street they are, in my view, boll**ks

In my simple world I find one stat particular useful, ie. the team that scores the most goals wins!! As GP says the rest is b****cks!

Thank you for explaining ‘xG’…I had wondered.
For me, home form, away form, GD and Pts are all I take notice of…the rest I agree with GP and mac about.

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Originally Posted by macstheman

In my simple world I find one stat particular useful, ie. the team that scores the most goals wins!! As GP says the rest is b****cks!

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Yup, only one stat matters

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Originally Posted by Andy_Faber

Yup, only one stat matters

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Yet Managers, Coaches, Bookies and even some fans seem to set a lot of store by xG...

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Originally Posted by ramAnag

Thank you for explaining ‘xG’…I had wondered.
For me, home form, away form, GD and Pts are all I take notice of…the rest I agree with GP and mac about.

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Not often I get thanked prior to doing something ;)

Here's an explanation of xG provided by ChatGPT...

In football, "xG" stands for Expected Goals. It's a statistical metric used to measure the quality of goal-scoring chances created or conceded during a match. Expected Goals are calculated based on various factors such as the distance from the goal, angle of the shot, type of play, and defensive pressure. The higher the xG value of a chance, the more likely it is to result in a goal. This metric helps analysts and coaches evaluate team performance, player effectiveness, and match outcomes in a more objective manner.

Back to me again... just as with stats like how many shots/shots on, there are various "answers" for each individual game. ie. the BBC offers its take on shots/SOT and they are not always the same numbers as the club or any of the many other sources of such data. xG? it's all worked out by statistical models built by many different people/organisations and rely on algorithms they themselves devised which won't be the same as someone else's algorithms.

As a Frenchman might say "Sacre bleu, c'est tout bolleaux" :)

Can imagine when I was younger when I went out looking back in the night and saying I had 5 xS but sadly I'm on my Jack Jones eating a kebab.

Yes but you were less likely to contract as STD from a kebab, although if it was from a van, I'm not 100% sure of that