Run In.. opposition additional games

The ways Europe, Conference League, Champions League, and FA Cup fixture are (and potentially could) fall are being kind to us in the remaining fixtures we have left? a lot of what could possibly have been one of the harder games comes not long after an additional competition that team had to play in.

Brentford (h) 2nd April

Leicester (a) 7th April

Man Utd (h) 13th April
They play Europa QF leg 1 (away) to Lyon on 10th April

Palace (h) 16th April

Villa (a) 19th April
They have Champions League second leg v PSG on 15th April so we aren?t that disadvantaged by squeezing the Palace game in.

Ipswich (h) 26th April - no FA Cup Semi impact possible

Brighton (a) 3rd May
They have FA Cup QF (v Forest) 29th March)

Chelsea (h) 10th May
They have Conf League Semi (if they progress from QF) on 8th May - so likely to move to 11th

Arsenal (a) 18th May - No FA Cup final impact possible

Everton (h) 25th May

FA Cup final (17th May) best case for us could mean City and Forest both have to squeeze in an extra fixture in the week before last game on 25th May, if not both then hopefully one of them.

Teams to squeeze in:
City - Bournemouth (h)*
Forest - West Ham (a)

*Bournemouth are playing City in QF, so there is still a chance that City would have to juggle fixtures to accommodate them even if City lose.

Great post, Ian...all those factors could definitely have a n impact b

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nufcian

The ways Europe, Conference League, Champions League, and FA Cup fixture are (and potentially could) fall are being kind to us in the remaining fixtures we have left? a lot of what could possibly have been one of the harder games comes not long after an additional competition that team had to play in.

Brentford (h) 2nd April

Leicester (a) 7th April

Man Utd (h) 13th April
They play Europa QF leg 1 (away) to Lyon on 10th April

Palace (h) 16th April

Villa (a) 19th April
They have Champions League second leg v PSG on 15th April so we aren?t that disadvantaged by squeezing the Palace game in.

Ipswich (h) 26th April - no FA Cup Semi impact possible

Brighton (a) 3rd May
They have FA Cup QF (v Forest) 29th March)

Chelsea (h) 10th May
They have Conf League Semi (if they progress from QF) on 8th May - so likely to move to 11th

Arsenal (a) 18th May - No FA Cup final impact possible

Everton (h) 25th May

FA Cup final (17th May) best case for us could mean City and Forest both have to squeeze in an extra fixture in the week before last game on 25th May, if not both then hopefully one of them.

Teams to squeeze in:
City - Bournemouth (h)*
Forest - West Ham (a)

*Bournemouth are playing City in QF, so there is still a chance that City would have to juggle fixtures to accommodate them even if City lose.

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Nice one Ian, great post. I've been musing over this very subject since the lads hoisted the pot. Didn't have the time or the patience in the last few days to get into the analytics of it. I appreciate you doing the graft mate!

Right now Brighton are the 'form team' 4 wins and a most recent draw in their last 5.

Brighton are yet to play Villa, Palace, Leicester (being their only easy fixture), Brentford, West Ham, Us Wolves and Liverpool on their run in. That's a hell of a fixture list!

However, rather than go through every team from 3rd - 10th and get in the reeds about of 3,1,0 points per match. The fact is that it's all up to our team, the players on the pitch who are now Champions. The lads who have brough a cup to the club for the first time in a 56 yrs.

I'm sure Eddie will be saying to all of them. You want that feeling again. Let's play the last 10 as though they are that final.

Alreet Cup winners, how ya deein?

After the Brentford match and 3 points I thought it might be an interesting to start a 'Run-in' thread which we count down the matches and chart our progress as we fight for a top 5 UEFA Champions League spot against the other challengers.

To set out the frame work:- what we know.

Due to the Prem teams performance we have an extra slot in the UCL - Top 5 Prem teams qualify
Liverpool are 23 points clear & Arsenal are 11 points clear of us in 5th - They've qualified bar an never-seen-before crash
Forest have a 6 point lead on City winning their last 3 in a row - on current form and across the season deserve their UCL spot

4th to 8th are all in the mix for those 2 remaining UCL spots 4 points cover the spread of 5 teams in the mix
4 - City (51pts)
5 - Newcastle United
6 - Chelsea (before the Spurs match)
7 - Villa
8 - Brighton (47pts)

City are City - consummate professionals with enough experience and quality to get the job done
Newcastle United - We are capable of grinding out results. Brentford was a good performance but exposed a few issues
Chelsea - hit and miss. The Spurs performance will tell us more about where they are as the matches tick away
Villa - Rushford and Marco Asensio have really improved them. The Brummies are this season Ange / Spurs hype team
Brighton - had a great run of form but a draw and a loss in their last 2 has knocked the wind from their sails
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Our remaining games

5 of 9 are home fixtures - 15 points

Man U, Palace, Ipswich, Chelsea & Everton
We are better on our day than all 5 of these teams.
Man U we need a statement win.
Palace are one of those teams we should always beat but often throw a spanner in the works.
Ipswich are whipping boys. 3 points a must against this lot. Delap needs watched!
Chelsea will defo be a decided for the top 5, at home we simply must beat them.
Everton to close the show in match day 38 - May 25th - I'm hoping we've sealed the deal by kick off

4 of 9 - away fixtures
Leicester, Aston Villa, Brighton, Arsenal - 3 are tough fixtures on paper

Leicester, like the Ipswich at home has to be a banker. A game that Champions League qualifiers simply must win
Aston Villa are a direct competitor for the UCL spots and on a great run of form. Still in Europe, will that have an effect?
Brighton is not always a happy hunting ground for us. With their form falling apart hopefully we'll take a point
Arsenal - 3 times we've pumped them this season. 4/4 would just be delightful. I guess they'll have an axe to grind
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What does everyone thing is going to play out across the remaining 9?

Nufcian - Imported from his 'Run in Thread'

The ways Europe, Conference League, Champions League, and FA Cup fixture are (and potentially could) fall are being kind to us in the remaining fixtures we have left? a lot of what could possibly have been one of the harder games comes not long after an additional competition that team had to play in.

Brentford (h) 2nd April

Leicester (a) 7th April

Man Utd (h) 13th April
They play Europa QF leg 1 (away) to Lyon on 10th April

Palace (h) 16th April

Villa (a) 19th April
They have Champions League second leg v PSG on 15th April so we aren?t that disadvantaged by squeezing the Palace game in.

Ipswich (h) 26th April - no FA Cup Semi impact possible

Brighton (a) 3rd May
They have FA Cup QF (v Forest) 29th March)

Chelsea (h) 10th May
They have Conf League Semi (if they progress from QF) on 8th May - so likely to move to 11th

Arsenal (a) 18th May - No FA Cup final impact possible

Everton (h) 25th May

FA Cup final (17th May) best case for us could mean City and Forest both have to squeeze in an extra fixture in the week before last game on 25th May, if not both then hopefully one of them.

Teams to squeeze in:
City - Bournemouth (h)*
Forest - West Ham (a)

*Bournemouth are playing City in QF, so there is still a chance that City would have to juggle fixtures to accommodate them even if City lose.

The good things is, it's in our own hands.

Some very tough away games but we know we've got it in us to get something at all of them.

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Originally Posted by Zippity

The good things is, it's in our own hands.

Some very tough away games but we know we've got it in us to get something at all of them.

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Absolutely mate.

We qualified in 22/23 with 71 points. We're currently on 50 points with (9x3) 27 to play for.

Winning our home games Chelsea being the only one I see as a true challenge in the grand scheme of things.
(Man U, Palace, Ipswich, Chelsea & Everton)

We need to aim to take 15 points from those matches. Putting us on 65 points. Leicester away is banker (3pts) - 68pts. we need to find 3 points from the other 3 away matches along the way.

Depending on what happens around us, the Chelsea match being a classic '6 pointer' & likewise Villa. those two I believe will be the defining moments of the season and be critical to where we end up playing our European football next season. Europa Or Champions League.

What we will need in both matches is focus and solid performances from all 11 on the pitch much like the final v Liverpool.

We take a point at Villa Park I'd be happy. Deploying the 5 at the back Arsenal formation might be a good idea but I'll leave the tactics up to Eddie.

In 22/23 we had 71 points for 4th place, if we now aim for top-5 I believe 68 will do the job. May be even less.

Our next game, Leicester away, is 100% must win to get us into comfortable position.

Villa have too much on their plate with CL and FA cup, so they’ll slip somewhere, I think.
Chelsea have UEFA cup and tougher run-in (Newcastle and Forest away, Liverpool, Man U, Brentford A).

If either Villa or Brighton get that 5th - fair play to them, but I do hope Chelsea will fall miserably

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Marat18

In 22/23 we had 71 points for 4th place, if we now aim for top-5 I believe 68 will do the job. May be even less.

Our next game, Leicester away, is 100% must win to get us into comfortable position.

Villa have too much on their plate with CL and FA cup, so they’ll slip somewhere, I think.
Chelsea have UEFA cup and tougher run-in (Newcastle and Forest away, Liverpool, Man U, Brentford A).

If either Villa or Brighton get that 5th - fair play to them, but I do hope Chelsea will fall miserably

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The demise of the Cartel, 2 are already flushed this season. To see Chelsea bottle it and finish below Forest, City, Us, Villa & Brighton in 8th I would laugh heartily

Good analysis guys.

My feeling are the away games are key. Really want to beat Brighton, sick of slipping up against them. I think we got the home games, however Chelsea could be a decider.

Villa also worry me but battling on 3 fronts may be too much.