Sturgeonland

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Originally Posted by donsdaft

T


I still can't get my head around 30% of party members not even voting.

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People will be paying by direct debit. They probably signed up years ago and don't realise they are still members and therefore didn't know they were eligible to vote.

Of course many may have chosen not to vote as no candidate really came across that well.

There's always that.

A fair few direct debits being cancelled now I reckon.

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Originally Posted by InversneckieDob

So, what would an independence party that would vote for look like?
And gies a cogent answer with using words and phrases like poofs and mannies canna be wifies etc.

The way I look at it, the SNP's policies in government are wholly irrelevant.

Post independence I'd image, fairly soon, the SNP would cease to exist.
I think the potential within an independent Scotland to, at the very least, not be governed by a "let the markets decide" mantra would be right there.

I think Kate Forbes' personal beliefs are pretty abhorrent but, on a single issue basis, I'd vote for the largest independence movement with a view to obtaining that outcome, were that party led by her.

Now, I understand floating voters, in terms of independence, being reticent about voting for a party with whose socio-political and socio-economic policies they disagree.

For the life of me I can't understand someone who espouses a belief in independence not voting SNP because of some here-today-gone-tomorrow policies.

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I agree with that 100%

There will never be a party that will unite politically to gain independence.

Just reading through this thread tells me all I need to know about why we won't get independence anytime soon.

Get out of the Union then worry about how we shape the country afterwards.

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Originally Posted by donsdaft

There's always that.

A fair few direct debits being cancelled now I reckon.

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I've always maintained parties should be funded by the tax payer and do away with all this donation/membership nonsense.

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Originally Posted by TheDeeDon

I've always maintained parties should be funded by the tax payer and do away with all this donation/membership nonsense.

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The Tories get quite enough of my money, thanks.

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Originally Posted by donsdaft

They weren't gone tomorrow though, were they?
They only get worse and worse.

I agree with almost everything you say in your original post but we are talking about deliberately alienating voters for no good reason while sitting on a 50/50 poll.

Bloody madness.

If the SNP were to maintain their position they had to vote for real change, they didn't.
I still can't get my head around 30% of party members not even voting.

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They could be gone tomorrow if enough elected representatives want them gone that's how politics works.
In a small independent country of 5 million people change is far easier to bring about.

Whilst it’s neither my circus nor my monkeys, the last few weeks has cemented further my suspicon that in both parliaments and in local authorities, the zest for independence, should one scratch below the surface, is rather more lukewarm than professed among the nationalists. I suspect that the feather-bedding the representatives have become used to has seen them lose much of any focus on the issue that they ever had. The lifestyle, with little or no punishment at the ballot box for the big ticket failures means that they don’t have to worry, as long as they read from the script that the drones want to hear, and chuck the odd i-word rubber bone to the followers.

In fact, I am convinced that the so-called independence movement is beginning to view The Party as a hindrance rather than an enabler, and have heard this expressed by more than a few Party members, and independence-minded individuals.

Anyway, do carry on rewarding failure.

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Originally Posted by TheDeeDon

I've always maintained parties should be funded by the tax payer and do away with all this donation/membership nonsense.

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That's a bloody stupid idea, if parties can't raise enough money to survive, they deserve to die and not be bailed out by the taxpayer.
And what if somebody starts a new party, are you going to give taxpayers money to all sorts of dubious characters?

I suspect what will happen is that there will be a Westminster election Autumn 2024 where most SNP supporters will vote SNP as usual but a big enough minority will either not bother voting or will tactically vote Labour to kick out the Tories (remember the theme of the next WM election will be to ditch the Tories after 14 years, it won't be independence or indyref2). My guess at this time is the SNP goes from 48 MP's down to between 25-30 MP's.

I suspect that this result when combined with what will be a pretty rough time for Humza over the next year or so will result in him being challenged for the leadership (I presume you can do that under SNP rules), which he will lose to Kate Forbes as many less MSP's and therefore ultimately members will support Humza next time around as the continuity mantle will be poisoned by all of the stuff going around Sturgeon/Murrell. Forbes will be much more savvy next time around with regard to her religious beliefs. Plus the MSP's will have a genuine fear about losing their jobs in the Holyrood election in 2026 if Humza is still leader

Forbes will ditch the Greens and will focus the Government on areas/policies that will be of much more relevance to the mainstream voting public i.e. health/jobs/cost of living/poverty/education etc with much less focus on issues like GRR and general anti growth/business policies pushed by the Greens.

The 2026 election will then be fought on much more favourable grounds for the SNP, where the anti-Tory vote will not be relevant, the electorate will include 16/17 year olds, they will have a more likable leader and all of the current "stuff" impacting the SNP will be more of a distant memory. This will result in a return to a near SNP majority and would then be a springboard to be really pushing hard for a consistent majority in favour of independence via governing well in Scotland. Assuming Forbes can get a consistent 55-60% in favour of independence Starmer (PM by this time) will buckle and offer a referendum in the late 20's/early 30's as the "once in a generation" argument will cease to be relevant by then

As to what happens in this referendum (my guess is in the early 30's) will depend on whether the Scottish people hold their nerve this time around - I suspect they will and Kate Forbes will be the first Prime Minister in an independent Scotland around 2035 following a couple of years of negotiation post referendum victory.

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Originally Posted by Jupiter

That's a bloody stupid idea, if parties can't raise enough money to survive, they deserve to die and not be bailed out by the taxpayer.
And what if somebody starts a new party, are you going to give taxpayers money to all sorts of dubious characters?

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Fair enough your entitled to your opinion.

In the grand scheme of wasting taxpayers money it is not that stupid an idea.

Dodgy characters will always be able to get money out of the taxpayer.