D Day for Brexit

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Originally Posted by 1959_60

Morning Sinkov.

A list of EU trade deals at the link.

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/cou...artly-in-place

It is looking more and more likely that we could be making a complete break from the EU in March. That's just 8 months away. When the EU rejects Theresa's plan (which you do not support) then Parliament will have to decide whether to make the concessions which they will ask for. Boris and Rees-Mogg etc will make sure that this does not happen.
So Theresa will have three options. A General Election (which would probably result in Jeremy taking over), no deal - meaning we will leave in March without any deal, or handing the decision to the public (which she has ruled out)
I think the no deal is the one she will opt for - she can say that "no deal is better than a bad deal" and maintain a little bit of face.

So I reckon you will get your way in March Sinkov.

At that point we will not have a trade agreement in place with the EU or anyone else. These deals take ages to set up and in the meantime we are likely to be trading under WTO rules...with all that that entails.
And we have just 8 months to sort out the Irish border thing, and a whole host of issues that will result.

Congratulations.

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Thanks for the link 59/60, it's a bit pathetic really isn't, I pointed out that the EU had been unable to conclude trade deals in 45 years with the world's biggest 10 economies. If you extend that list to the top 20 biggest economies you can also add the following countries that have no trade deal with them, S Korea, Russia, Australia, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, S. Arabia, Argentina and Taiwan. And of course, if the EU has no trade deal with them, we don't either, due to a dysfunctional EU we already trade with the world's biggest economies under WTO rules.

Strange that you seem concerned about WTO rules, when EU membership already obliges us to carry out most of our trade under them.

Are you aware that a border already exists in Ireland, that the two countries operate different VAT rates, excise duty rates, and other tax rates ? These differences are managed perfectly well currently by the customs authorities, trade tariffs would be just one more different rate to manage. It's only a problem because the EU and their sock puppet in Dublin choose to make it one. But that's the EU for you.

Incidentally, it's not my way, seems like we're back in that barrel of treacle. I'll try once more, check out May's Lancaster House speech, that's what 17 million people voted for, that's what I would like to see delivered.

The EU Brexit negotiator said the White Paper opened "the way to a constructive discussion" but must be "workable".
He questioned whether plans for a common rulebook for goods and agri-foods were practical.
Earlier, Theresa May urged the EU to "evolve" its position on Brexit and not fall back on unworkable proposals.

Mr Barnier did not reject the White Paper out of hand, saying "several elements" of it were "very useful".
But there were parts that Brussels did not understand which would need further clarification.
He said his main aim was to protect the integrity of the EU single market, and the UK proposals - which would see frictionless trade in goods but not services - risked undermining that.
"We are not going to negotiate on the basis of the White Paper because that's the British paper but we could use many elements of the White Paper," said Mr Barnier.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44903652

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Originally Posted by 1959_60

"This Jo Swinson, who couldn't get herself into Parliament for an important vote last week, because she has a baby to look after, would it be the same Jo Swinson who managed to get herself to an anti-Trump rally last week, despite having a baby to look after ?"

The very same Sinkov.

Just because she is on maternity leave doesn't mean that her life is put on hold. Who knows, she may have gone to the cinema as well?

Pairing in Parliament means that MP's don't have to turn up simply to vote if, for example, they are on maternity leave, sick or on other business. It is an agreement that MP's of all parties use and usually happens automatically.

The Tory chief whip apparently instructed three of his MP's to ignore the pairing agreements in order to win the vote. The other two MP's ignored his instructions but one of them - who happened to be the Tory chairman - decided to vote.

Now, if you are defending this action then I am disappointed at you. We have plenty of work in front of us to get to a coalition agreement, but I have never doubted that you are a honest and principled bloke.

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Honest, yes I try to be 59/60, but principled in the matter of politics ? Well I would be if I were a politician and other politicians were as well, but as they're not, I would be foolish to let principles constrain me wouldn't I ? But then I'm not a politician, so it doesn't arise and I do have principles. I do have a price though. ;D

I'm not defending the Tories on this one, they pulled a fast one, despicable, a dirty trick I agree. However, I'm delighted they did it, the LibDems have around a hundred unelected members of the House of Lords, that they have so many claiming expenses off the taxpayer is a scandal in itself, but that aside, they're using these unelected tossers, with no democratic mandate whatsoever, to obstruct and block the passing of government bills designed to accord with the result of the referendum and facilitate our withdrawal from the EU. It's cynical, it's unprincipled and undemocratic, it's a disgrace, so I'm quite relaxed about the Tories using underhand methods against them as well. The biter bit.

I do wonder if Jo has her priorities right though, she's paid to be an MP, she can find the time to fly balloons with nappies on over central London, but finds getting into the Commons for a ***** vote all too much. I don't think she'd have survived long in Mrs Thatcher's government.

Looks like I've fallen foul of the v-i-t-a-l censor as well.

I have read with great interest all of your meanderings and differences of opinion. Mostly articulate and well thought out, but the reality is we voted to LEAVE, without any sort of consensus hard Brexit it is!

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Originally Posted by The Bedlington Terrier

I have read with great interest all of your meanderings and differences of opinion. Mostly articulate and well thought out, but the reality is we voted to LEAVE, without any sort of consensus hard Brexit it is!

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I'm sure some sort of a deal will be cobbled together, quite possibly at the last moment. The EU have started talking about no deal, bollox, it's a smokescreen, what will be concentrating their minds is the 40 billion euros that will slip through their fingers if they don't agree a deal. No deal and no 40 billion is simply not an option for the EU, but they won't tell you that.

Woah Sinkov.

You are right, the EU certainly want a deal.

But Boris, Rees-Mogg etc don't.

And they will make sure that there isn't one. No way will the Tory party agree to any concessions and no way will the EU accept Theresa's deal. So I believe we will leave in March with no deal.

Result? The Tory party will never be the same again. The moderates will jump ship.

The country will be up in arms. Only a minority voted for, and agree with, a no deal crash-out Brexit.

Boris etc claim that 17 million people voted for his version.

You claim that 17 million people voted for your version.

Theresa and her mates claim that her offer is supported by 17 million people.

Go figure.

You do have some weird and wonderful ideas 59/60, you seem to exist in a parallel universe, more treacle swimming but I'll try yet again. 17 million people voted to leave the EU, do I really have to keep repeating this, that means leaving the customs union, single msrket, ending the jurisdiction of the European Court, taking back control of our borders and territorial waters, ending ending payments to the EU etc, and negotiating a free trade deal with them.

It's simple really, why do you have such difficulty understanding this ? When has anyone on the Leave side said they don't want a free trade deal ? It was the policy of all the Leave groups, it's been in all May's speeches, we wanted to discuss a free trade deal right from the start, alongside the withdrawal agreement, but the EU flatly refused to negotiate until the WA was agreed, so a year when we could have been negotiating a trade deal was wasted thanks to EU intransigence. It was this refusal to negotiate that Trump said we could sue them for. There has been no offer of a trade deal at all from them yet. Just nit picking and intransigence.

Your ignorance on this whole process is astonishing, what on earth makes you say Boris and the Mogg don't want a free trade deal, it's not the BBC and Grauniad again is it ?







What planet are you currently living on, it's not this one. It was the po

Good grief Sinkov - you are hard work.

You state, "Incidentally, it's not my way, seems like we're back in that barrel of treacle. I'll try once more, check out May's Lancaster House speech, that's what 17 million people voted for, that's what I would like to see delivered." (your post number 161)

That is nonsense and you know it.

Plenty of people voted for the complete break Brexit.
Plenty of people wanted to leave - but with a much softer option.
Plenty of people believe in other kinds of Brexits.
Brexit has no simple straightforward meaning that all Quitters can sign up to

So that cuts down your 17 million dramatically. Is there a majority of Quitters who support your preferred option? Perhaps you can back up this claim with evidence?

From what I can see there are several forms of Brexit that are supported by the Quitters - but I can't see mass support for a specific one.

On the other hand, 16.1 million decided to vote remain - without any different types of remain.

If we leave it to Parliament it will be decided by who shouts loudest - and Boris/Rees Mogg will win hands down.

I predict we sever all ties in 8 months.

Your post 1959_60 is eactly the reason I said what I did in post 136 and I do look forward to the continued discontent which will pervade whatever happens :-

What I am waiting for is the final severance and to see the divided reception that this well bring.
Will the majority who voted to leave say that this is exactly what they wanted --I think not.
Will the majority of those who lost the vote and wished to remain be happy with the deal or no deal scenario ----I think not.
Will the majority of those who could not be bothered to vote either way be happy ----I think not.