o/t please help settle an argument.

Technically if you’ve got bond number ABC123456 (for example) and it’s picked out, there’s an equal chance it could be picked out again in the same draw unless the Premium Bond people block the number.

Going back to the national lottery picking the numbers 1,2,3,4,5 & 6 have exactly the same chance of winning as any other combination of six numbers but it just looks “wrong”

However if you want to win the big prize on your own without sharing you’re better off picking numbers bigger than 30. This is because people include birthdays and similar date events in their selections, so numbers are date limited from 1 to 30. Also generally speaking people have “lucky numbers” that tend to be single digits or small numbers, ie lucky 7 or perversely lucky 13.

People just aren’t that logical when it comes down to it.

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Originally Posted by the_idiotb_stardson

I think you have misunderstood Grist.

Not talking about half and half, one side black, one side red.

I am talking about if you could bet on red and black, covering an area, of about a third of the wheel (or a fifth or an eighth it doesn't matter). This area would be in one solid block. Would it have more chance of winning than if you had red and black spaces, covering the same space but separated and spread out around the wheel.

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No, I knew what you meant, but with a perfectly balanced wheel it makes no difference where it stops.

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Originally Posted by gm_gm

It doesn’t matter as it’s still 50/50

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That's correct but I'd be tempted to call heads as after 19 in a row I'd be questioning the 'bias'.

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Originally Posted by CAMiller

That's correct but I'd be tempted to call heads as after 19 in a row I'd be questioning the 'bias'.

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This famously happened at Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, black came out on the roulette 26 times in a row. People then thought red was due to come out a lot to balance it out... people lost a lot of money.

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Originally Posted by John2

This famously happened at Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, black came out on the roulette 26 times in a row. People then thought red was due to come out a lot to balance it out... people lost a lot of money.

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A perfect time to start doubling up.

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Originally Posted by John2

This famously happened at Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, black came out on the roulette 26 times in a row. People then thought red was due to come out a lot to balance it out... people lost a lot of money.

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I'm with Cam on this. The odds of throwing 19 heads in a row is 524288:1, which suggests that there is bias at play - something amiss with the coin to favour heads.

Tossing a coin is not 50/50. It will always be one sided given a fixed amount of numbers... even if you flip a million xs

With a perfectly balanced coin and no bias in the flipping process every toss is as near a damn it 50/50. There is a remote chance it could land on its edge, not roll and stay vertical.

Cumulative odds for this process are a myth.

Come on, which of you have been tossing?

The blind one.