Ffs don’t make it any more complicated for me than it already is 🤪Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackdogblue
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Ffs don’t make it any more complicated for me than it already is 🤪Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackdogblue
"Somewhat flawed" you say BDB. "Somewhat flawed". How very dare you! :OQuote:
Originally Posted by Blackdogblue
Let me try to be clearer.
Chalky is suggesting he submits a weekly selection that looks like this:-
1-0
1-0
1-0
1-0
H
H
H
H
By my calculations if he had done that every week this season he would be on 167 points.
That is because in total (across the entire 8 games Griff has selected each week) there have been 125 home wins this season.
125 x 1 = 125 points.
However, within those 125 home wins, 21 games in the scores section finished 1-0, thereby generating an additional 42 points (21 x 2 = 42 points).
125 + 42 = 167 points.
Alternatively you can do the calculation as follows:-
21 games in the scores section ended 1-0. Each of those was worth 3 points. 21 x 3 = 63 points.
Excluding those 21 games from the 125 games in total that were home wins (on the basis that we have already awarded each of those 21 games 3 points) there have been 104 other home wins (125 - 21 = 104) which were worth 1 point each. 104 x 1 = 104 points.
63 + 104 = 167 points.
Either way it comes to 167 points.
🎣 … Hook line & sinker 😀…
What if it was 0-1, 0-1 AW, AW..
Would that have been higher?
What about 1-1, 1-1, D, D..
Need a plan to catch Mullen 😎
Any help appreciated thanks…
OK BDB. So far this season across all games selected by Griff, there have been:-Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackdogblue
125 Homes. (125 x 1 point = 125 points)
85 Draws. (85 x 1 point = 85 points)
85 Aways. (85 x 1 point = 85 points)
Therefore, because of the nature of the scoring system (equal points be it home, away or draw) any system with any chance of winning would needs to be based on home wins (40 points ahead of draws and/or aways) unless that 40 point shortfall could be made up in the correct scores section (worth an additional 2 points).
Within the correct scores section this season the most common results have been:-
1-0 (21 games)
1-1 (20 games)
0-0 (16 games)
0-1 (12 games)
2-0 (11 games)
2-1 (10 games)
1-2 (10 games)
Therefore if anyone had used a system similar to the 1-0 being suggested, total points in the season to date for each of these scores would be:-
1-0 167 points (125+42)
1-1 125 points (85+40)
0-0 117 points (85+32)
0-1 109 points (85+24)
2-0 147 points (125+22)
2-1 145 points (125+20)
1-2 105 points (85+20)
As you can see, the option of selecting all draws or all aways would have achieved nowhere near the total points generated by the three most common home win options.
The top three being:-
1-0 167 points.
2-0 147 points.
2-1 145 points.
However it is worth remembering that the above calculations are based on this season's results. Next season a different score (other than 1-0) could be leading the way. In past years I have seen 2-1 be the most common score.
What I would add though, based on results in previous seasons, is that unless the scoring system changes (e.g. more points awarded for correctly predicting the scores of draws and/or aways) any system based on draws and/or aways is highly unlikely to win over a system based on home wins.
Hope this helps!
Never mind all this 1-0 and HW malarkey howoldboy,what’s YOUR secret to being continually good in the comp eh? 😉
Like me, my "system" is fairly simple:-Quote:
Originally Posted by chaincey.ncfc
1. Decide whether each game will be a home, away or draw.
2. Once I have made that initial decision, then decide what the scores will be in the relevant section.
3. For the scores I rarely stray outside 1-0, or 2-1 for homes, 1-1 for draws and 0-1 for aways. The only exception to this is if a ridiculously one-sided fixture is selected (e.g. Manchester City v Luton Town was selected in the Rochdale competition this weekend so I went for 3-0).
Don't forget I have only won Predictocomp once.
Griff cruised it last season and prior to that I can remember years where none of us got anywhere near catching the likes of NZ Blue and Piglet.
My main objective for the next two weeks (in addition to staying ahead of Mullen) will be to beat that 1-0 based system. We can't have a "system" beating us all!
It’s a very interesting formula howoldboy and like you say it’s a simple one and this season a successful one,when you win it will be a deserved victory
Thanks Howoldboy much appreciated..
Which combo do I need to do would you suggest to get 2nd place please 😀😀
Don’t bloody hell him howoldboy,the gloating would be unbearable if he won my twenty quid donation as well
#teammullen
At this stage all I can suggest is the combo The Reverend encourages Chalky to do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackdogblue
Knees and pray.