Run-In Confidence

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Originally Posted by upthemaggies

Morecambe finished 4th with 73 points in 2009/10, since then 76 is the lowest.

Lincoln got into the play offs with only 66 points in 2006.

Curiously, only one team finishing 4th at this level in the last decade has gone on to win the play offs, the 7th placed team has gone up four times since 2015, the 6th placed team twice.

The bad news regards play offs though is, since Coventry went up from this level in 2018, no play off winner has finished higher than 18th following promotion to tier 3 and if Crawley are relegated (highly likely) then 4 of the last 6 play off winners will have come straight back down.

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And in Port Vale's case they were relegated the year after.

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Originally Posted by marky

And in Port Vale's case they were relegated the year after.

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Generally, teams going up to tier 3 in recent years haven't maintained the momentum. Luton were the last team to win back to back promotions.


First season after promotion
^ denotes the play off winner.

2019/20
Lincoln City 16th
Milton Keynes 19th
Tranmere Rov ^ 21st (relegated back down)
Bury (Expelled)

2020/21
Crewe Alex. 12th
Plymouth Arg. 18th
Northampton T ^ 22nd (relegated back down)
Swindon Town 23rd (relegated back down)

2021/22
Bolton W. 10th
Cambridge Utd 14th
Cheltenham T. 15th
Morecambe ^ 19th

2022/23
Exeter City 14th
Bristol Rov 17th
Port Vale ^ 18th
Forest Green 24th (relegated back down)

2023/24
Stevenage 9th
Leyton Orient 11th
Northampton T 14th
Carlisle Utd ^ 24th (relegated back down)


A lot of teams promoted have since returned to tier 4 or look as though they are about to return, a couple of names there have suffered worse scenarios. Plymouth are the team we'd want to emulate (going on to win promotion into tier 2), but Lincoln have been decent after their initial struggle (much better than Trew managed with Notts at that level) and Exeter haven't done badly.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by upthemaggies

Morecambe finished 4th with 73 points in 2009/10, since then 76 is the lowest.

Lincoln got into the play offs with only 66 points in 2006.

Curiously, only one team finishing 4th at this level in the last decade has gone on to win the play offs, the 7th placed team has gone up four times since 2015, the 6th placed team twice.

The bad news regards play offs though is, since Coventry went up from this level in 2018, no play off winner has finished higher than 18th following promotion to tier 3 and if Crawley are relegated (highly likely) then 4 of the last 6 play off winners will have come straight back down.

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Thank you UTM.
So 73 with a better goal difference would have been enough. Not likely this season but you never know.

What is more worrying is your next post that shows that nearly all promoted teams from this division end up in the bottom half in League 1.

I would suggest the step up from Legaue Two to League One is bigger than ever due to the increased money in the game. It?s pointless comparing football and the divisions now to the leagues back in the 70s-90s

Following Port Vale's defeat last night, Doncaster are now on course to take 3rd spot with 78 points.

It's as if a bunch of clubs are stood outside the promotion doorway, "After you mate", "No you first", "No it's OK you go in","No I'm alright, I'm waiting for someone actually."
If this carries on then Notts could be relatively average from now until the end of the season and still go up.

In League One, 17 of the 24 clubs are currently playing their 3rd season or less at that level since last joining the division. Another three are in their 4th consecutive season, which leaves only four clubs who are in their 5th L1 season or longer (the two longest serving, Shrewsbury and Burton, look set to drop out), so it's very much the league that most resembles the station you change trains at, rather than arrive at as a destination.

We will have most of our best players available for the run in
I'm still fairly confident my EW bet on us to win L2 will pay out

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Originally Posted by Boomerangpie

I would suggest the step up from Legaue Two to League One is bigger than ever due to the increased money in the game. It?s pointless comparing football and the divisions now to the leagues back in the 70s-90s

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Or indeed players, as I recall that I was told that Kenny Dalglish would have no chance of getting into the NL Notts team by Laddo. Don't know if you can remember him, he did post some right twaddle.

I hope Notts can hold on to a playoff spot, probably 7th, but have no confidence that Notts could actually win it. Our form v top 7 inspires absolutely no confidence at all.

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Originally Posted by Woodypie

Or indeed players, as I recall that I was told that Kenny Dalglish would have no chance of getting into the NL Notts team by Laddo. Don't know if you can remember him, he did post some right twaddle.

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Well he is in 70s so I would seriously doubt it too

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Originally Posted by Woodypie

I hope Notts can hold on to a playoff spot, probably 7th, but have no confidence that Notts could actually win it. Our form v top 7 inspires absolutely no confidence at all.

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Same here, hope for a playoff spot but very little confidence that we could win them