The reason that Russia and the west all generally agree that firing ATACMs and Storm Shadows, etc., into Russia is/was seen as an escalation is because it is for all practical purposes NATO attacking Russia on Russian soil. Putin made that clear that that?s how it would be viewed by Russia, and the west appeared to acknowledge that until recently. One may well argue that NATO ought to do so, or that it?s well within its rights to do so. What is difficult to argue is that it?s not an attack by NATO into Russia.
Some of you may think, ?well, so what?? I guess that depends on how Russia responds. As has also been clear, Russia has changed its nuclear doctrine (ie. the conditions on which it may use its nuclear deterrent) to include such a scenario. Does that mean they will automatically use nuclear weapons? Of course not. Does it mean they possibly will? Yes. The only ones who know if they actually will are the Russian leadership. The rest of us are all just trying to look into a crystal ball.
As one who follows the war not from the perspective of the MSM, but rather from ?pro-Russian? analysts, I find that even they are divided into two camps.
One camp believes that the authorization to strike ?deep? into Russia it yet another ploy to make the Russians suddenly do something rash and stupid that will in turn draw the west closer into the war (as if they need an excuse), as well as turn off all the countries that are sympathetic to Russia (such as the global south). This will make it harder for Trump to negotiate peace without looking like a chicken or traitor who likes giving ?Putler? oral sėx, instead of going toe to toe with him. However, according to this camp, Putin and his entourage are too clever to fall for any of this. They are methodically beating the Ukrainians and will continue to do so at their own pace until their victory objectives are achieved. The Russians, as per this theory, don?t care who?s in the White House. After all, the leaked versions of Trump?s supposed peace plan already show that it?s not something even close to what the Russians will accept? and when they reject it, the US will continue to back Ukraine as they?ve always done. So as far as they?re concerned, these analysts hold, it is and will continue to be business as usual. Ukraine is on the ropes, and there?s no point the Russians taking their eye of the ball now? especially when the western media is reporting that the west barely has a handful of ATACMs left.
The second camp takes a very different line. This camp believes that Putin?s war cabinet already decided long ago on how it would respond to various circumstances, and that an attack by NATO into Russian territory, which the Russians rightly hold this to be, is one such scenario that has already has a pre-determined response. This camp believes that there must and will be a very significant response. And while the camp doesn?t know specifically what the response will be, they believe that it may not be limited to Ukraine. If the Russians don?t respond, they say, then the next red line crossed by NATO will be NATO air defences protecting Western Ukraine, followed by an attempt to impose a no fly zone over a portion or all of Ukraine (which means direct air to air combat between NATO and Russian planes). So, what does this camp guess Russia will respond? Apparently Russia has some new (and old) bombs that they?ve yet to display in a combat situation - among them are the R26, and another one of which is called ?the father of all bombs?. This camp believes we will likely see these used soon. Some reports suggest it might even be tonight. I don?t know much about the latter of these bombs, but apparently it goes boom moreso than any conventional bomb, but glows less than a nuclear bomb. I think it supposedly contains aluminum or zinc powder or something like that that ignites and causes more fire than ordinary convection munitions. Supposedly it?s more of a city leveller than merely a building or block buster. Escalations beyond that would bring us to the brink of a nuclear exchange, as there aren?t many escalators moved left - maybe taking out some satellites first, or enabling the Houthis to sink a carrier or two.
I have no idea whose crystal ball is right, but there is a report this morning that US intelligence believes something big is going to happen in Ukraine today/tonight. It?s well possible, but like so many other reports of a similar nature, I won?t be surprised if the night passes without anything unusual happening.
