Bloody hell 59/60, prepare for government, we're not far apart at all, the coalition could be back on.O:)
We are leaving the SM and CU, that's our official policy, and the EU has clearly stated on numerous occasions that we cannot leave the EU and remain in either. So on that both sides are agreed, despite the bluff and bluster from those on the Remain side who are striving to overturn the referendum result and keep us in the EU by any means possible. (Please note I do not include your good self in this group.)
" leaving the single market and customs union, at least without putting something similar in place,"
I'm in full agreement again, we need access to the single market, we need something to replace the customs union which will facilitate trade between the UK and the EU, whatever you might want to call it, a customs union by any other name if you like. We already have full regulatory alignment with the EU, it benefits both groups to have tariff free access to each other's markets, with goodwill on both sides, although beset with problems and difficulties, it is perfectly achievable. I just do not see the goodwill from the EU side though, wherein, imo, lies the problem.
On the reports, the government has to be seen to be acting responsibly and commissioning them, and of course they can't actually rubbish them, but that's what they are, fit for nothing but hanging up in the loo. The OBR can't predict the economy even 6 months into the futiure, they never have yet and if they ever do it will be a pure co-incidence. The idea that the effects of Brexit can be predicted is ludicrous, there are far too many variables, they're good for absolutely nothing except as a propaganda tool for Remainers, who as they showed with Project Fear are not afraid to make good use of dodgy stats.