Originally Posted by
MadAmster
Deal? DUP don't like it and won't back it. LibDems and Labour both say it's even worse (I don't know enough detail to judge that yet) than the May deal that has already been voted down 3 times. SNP, obviously, won't back it as they represent most of the Scottish people, 62% of whom voted remain. There are 21 Tory rebels who may or may not vote with BoJo on this. Also 7 Sinn Feinn MPs who will, as always, be abstaining (NI also voted remain so they would serve their constituents better by turning up on Saturday to vote against the deal..... but they won't).
Let's have a look at the figures that make up what BoJo is facing among the 650 MPs.
Conservative 288
Labour 245
Independent 35
SNP 35
Lib Dem 19
DUP 10
IGC 5 (Independent Group for Change)
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 1
Speaker 1
Of those the 7 SF MPs won't vote and the Speaker can't so that's 642 MPs available to vote. BoJo needs (provided they all vote) 322 votes to guarantee getting his deal through. Where will those votes come from?
288 Tory MPs for a start but no guarantee all of them will vote OUT. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt.
21 Tory rebels? Some will, some won't. Let's be kind and have them all go with BoJo
Labour? Will some MPs surrender to the threat of it being this deal or no deal? Yes, but possibly about as many as there will be Tories who vote against BoJo.
That's about it, I think. 209 votes for the deal. 13 more required and I don't think he's going to get them.
That will mean, under the terms of the Benn Act, BoJo will have to apply for an extension to Article 50. I believe he will do just that. I think it is very likely that the EU has now gone as far as it is prepared to, amongst other reasons, to ensure that no other country decides to leave. At least one will vote against a further extension IMO as the EU won't give any more ground and that's it, the UK is out without a deal and BoJo can blame the EU. It is then down to the members of the WTO to decide if the UK may trade under the terms of the GATT deal. It takes just one to say no and then what?
Patriam non grata?
It aint over till it's over and this aint over by a long chalk. By Leave, the UK will have to start trade negotiations with the EU and the rest of the world's countries.......
The other (vague) possibility is that Parliament says yes to BoJo's deal. There then follows a 2 year status quo wherein the details of the UK/EU trade deal will be thrashed out. Once that deal is agreed and accepted by both the EU and the Commons/Lords, the terms of that deal replace the current terms.