O/T:- ...Has the key to a coronavirus vaccine been staring us in the face?

I'm not denying that Italy and the UK had their first cases on the same day. I won't check the stats because I don't need to, I'm perfectly happy to take your word for it, not least because it doesn't matter!

The Chief Medical Officer of the UK, the academics who provide the statistics and modelling, the UK government, all accept that we are following a similar curve to Italy but are a few weeks behind.

If you want me to concede the point that the first 10 or 20 or 50 or 100 or whatever cases in the UK had more positive outcomes than in the first 10, 20 or 50 in Italy then I'm happy to do that, but the generally accepted mainstream logic is that the virus gained a significant foothold there first and in the UK some weeks after.

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Originally Posted by drillerpie

I'm not denying that Italy and the UK had their first cases on the same day. I won't check the stats because I don't need to, I'm perfectly happy to take your word for it, not least because it doesn't matter!

The Chief Medical Officer of the UK, the academics who provide the statistics and modelling, the UK government, all accept that we are following a similar curve to Italy but are a few weeks behind.

If you want me to concede the point that the first 10 or 20 or 50 or 100 or whatever cases in the UK had more positive outcomes than in the first 10, 20 or 50 in Italy then I'm happy to do that, but the generally accepted mainstream logic is that the virus gained a significant foothold there first and in the UK some weeks after.

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I'm not denying that Italy and the UK had their first cases on the same day. I won't check the stats because I don't need to, I'm perfectly happy to take your word for it, not least because it doesn't matter! .....The stats are there for you to check, both countries spotted covid on the same day and the UK actually went ahead of Italy on 15th Feb...in the number of actual live cases

The Chief Medical Officer of the UK, the academics who provide the statistics and modelling, the UK government, all accept that we are following a similar curve to Italy but are a few weeks behind.....absolutely, I've watched them. IMO they are trying to stop the idiots from breaking the curfew and partying in the streets (see the 60-Years thread). ie they are trying to "downplay recent successes" and point to other countries as "if you break the curfew, you will be as bad as Spain-France-Italy".....every country is trying to find the PEAK, and a way back to some form of normality

If you want me to concede the point that the first 10 or 20 or 50 or 100 or whatever cases in the UK had more positive outcomes than in the first 10, 20 or 50 in Italy then I'm happy to do that, but the generally accepted mainstream logic is that the virus gained a significant foothold there first and in the UK some weeks after......again I would agree with you...if both countries started at the same time, but one country accelerated past the other, then clearly there were different factors at play....I agreed with you about age, I agreed with you about pollution in Lombardy, I agreed with you about smoking levels....but you took exception when I mentioned possible government corruption or an inadequate Italian NHS....ALL I SEE IS NUMBERS THAT BOTH STARTED OFF AT THE SAME DATE....and if it was Notts County, the only number that matters is the one on game 46....it's actually that simple, despite people saying "what if that Gillingham header hadn't gone in" or "what if the penno v Coventry had been awarded.......facts are facts in the record books and time will tell.

We are all only halfway through this, everyone is going stir crazy, including me....I fell out with Miriam yesterday because she wanted to drive the 200 miles here because she wanted a 16oz steak, fries and home-baked bread (plus a naughty session in the small swimming pool and a sleepover) ........I told her NO, quoting "Covid19 is accelerating in Mexico" and I know for a fact, she is racing between 100 clinics and hospitals trying to put government rulings into place, her chances of becoming infected are rising by the day.
I saw the numbers and acted....maybe I've lost another girlfriend, who knows, or even cares.

Everyone needs to try and stay safe....good luck all.

ps 22 cases of beer left.....when should I start to worry?....the magazine standing on the beer stack, is a July 1959 edition of National Geographic (I've got hundreds that I bury as compost in the veggie gardens) and one of the lead articles was "Up through the ice of the North Pole" by Commander James F Calvert....I bet he wouldn't recognise the North Pole now as we humans continue to completely wreck our environment....Covid19 being yet one more piece of our utter stupidity......as Rust Cohle said, let us all "Walk hand in hand into extinction, one last midnight. Brothers and sisters opting out of a raw deal.”
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Isn't it possible that the figures for Italy and Spain or wherever are leveling out because the most vulnerable have already caught it, been registered and recovered or died? I've seen no figures for recovery.

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Originally Posted by LaxtonLad

Isn't it possible that the figures for Italy and Spain or wherever are leveling out because the most vulnerable have already caught it, been registered and recovered or died? I've seen no figures for recovery.

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I would suggest that the flattening of the curve is primarily down to social distancing initiatives.

Regarding figures for recovery, of all cases with a resolution the recovery rate globally is currently circa 79%. The really good news is that of the current ‘live’ cases globally those classed as serious or critical have dropped to 4%.

Again I would suggest if social distancing rules were lifted the numbers would increase again, probably until enough people have been infected and recovered to create this “herd immunity” you keep hearing about. The problem with that of course is that many more people would have to die before that had any affect.

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Originally Posted by LaxtonLad

Isn't it possible that the figures for Italy and Spain or wherever are leveling out because the most vulnerable have already caught it, been registered and recovered or died? I've seen no figures for recovery.

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Don't try and be logical Laxton on this thread - you will get shot down.

It is for clearly for both of the below reasons.

a) Gross incompetence for letting so many people die
b) Massaging the figures to show a higher death rate get a bigger handout

Anyone who thinks otherwise or has a basic grip of data and the lag in it just needs to shut up.


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Originally Posted by LaxtonLad

Isn't it possible that the figures for Italy and Spain or wherever are leveling out because the most vulnerable have already caught it, been registered and recovered or died? I've seen no figures for recovery.

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I suppose it's hypothetically possible, but it's much more likely to be the lockdown measures.

The deaths seems to start to fall roughly a month after lockdown is imposed, which is why UK deaths are predicted to rise for a while longer.

I'm sure the governments would love to declare all the at risk people either dead or immune and remove all restrictions though.

Tarquin I really didn't expect to have to argue the point that the UK is on a similar curve to Italy from first principles and at such length, but seeing as that's where we are I can only restate what I said last night about the first case or the first few cases not being statistically relevant.

You seem to accept what Cher said about the US being behind Italy and Spain, but not the UK. I don't know if it's because it's me saying it and you want to argue with everything I say, or because if you admit that the UK is following a similar curve to the UK and Spain, the next thing you'll have to admit is that the level of deaths per million inhabitants you described as obscene are present in the UK too.

Let's talk about percentages and deaths per day instead as you don't have to be at the same point on the curve to use them. You said:

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The Guardian today is starting to question the Italian deaths v the rest of Europe, especially Germany and the UK, and v other developed countries....something here isn't right.....either these Italians were very seriously ill before (probably because of high pollution levels and infected lungs) or else someone else is massaging the figures to gain EU bailouts.....or their NHS system is totally garbage, everyone that seems to go to an Italian hospital seems to die (stay at home, it's safer).....or (my last "or") it's simply natures way of wiping out a load of very old Italians.

Maybe it's a mix of the above but look at the live figures as they come in, everyone that seems to die in Italy is logged as Covid, Mexico has had 2 deaths in 110 million people, Italy is hitting 650 DEAD per day (China, where it started and 1,000 million people is 9 dead per day!!)....

Somebody is not counting these figures correctly....sorry

here is a live update site of infections and deaths....Italy is on a 10% death rate v infected (59,138 cases, 5,476 dead) most other countries are 1% and lower, including the UK.....sorry, it is wrong IMO

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Do you know the current percentage fatality rate in the UK, the current deaths per day in the UK, and do you stand by everything you wrote here?

Tarquin seems to have missed this thread (generous interpretation) so I'll remind him of today's figures.

Confirmed coronavirus cases in UK as of 10th April: 70,272

Coronavirus deaths in UK as of 10th April: 8,958

Meaning the UK currently has a fatality rate of 12.74%

Tarquin could you enlighten me as to the reasons why it's so high? You yourself have said multiple times this is not normal.

Is it corruption? Political incompetence? Is Boris massaging the figures to get a hand out from someone? Is it the poor air quality? Is it the quality of health care available?

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Originally Posted by drillerpie

Tarquin seems to have missed this thread (generous interpretation) so I'll remind him of today's figures.

Confirmed coronavirus cases in UK as of 10th April: 70,272

Coronavirus deaths in UK as of 10th April: 8,958

Meaning the UK currently has a fatality rate of 12.74%

Tarquin could you enlighten me as to the reasons why it's so high? You yourself have said multiple times this is not normal.

Is it corruption? Political incompetence? Is Boris massaging the figures to get a hand out from someone? Is it the poor air quality? Is it the quality of health care available?

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We all know you are sat in Italy praying for more British dead.....I hope there are NO more.....you are hoping for more to prove a point, I TOLD YOU I TOLD YOU I TOLD YOU THERE WOULD BE MORE, despite those people being friends and relatives of posters on here, my own children, my own family....you are vile scum.

Right, this has run it's standard course now folks. Game over.