The wait goes on ...

It's all based on the premise that some teams, over the last 3 years anyway, have done better in the last 9 games, or so, than they did in the rest of the season and that it is reasonable to presume that they would do the same this season. There are probably a few hundred other variables you could add to the mix if that still doesn't help your cause

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Originally Posted by wrinkly

The margin of error calculation is not based on the last 9 games results exactly. It's based on how those results ppg compare with the ppg for games up to that point. For example if, over the last 3 seasons your ppg over the last 9 games was possibly not great but, say 1.5 times as good as the rest of the season then Hartlepool would argue that the ppg calculation for the rest of this season should include a margin for error addition to make the ppg for the remaining games effectively 1.5 times what it has been for the games so far

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What does this line mean then?

There is then applied to the table the statistical average actual margin for error over the last 3 years (being +6.3 or – 5.45%);

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Originally Posted by caytonmiller

This is what Tranmere chairman was proposing


a) The league table is calculated using a simple PPG basis;
b) There is then applied to the table the statistical average actual margin for error over the last 3 years (being +6.3 or – 5.45%);
c) Teams in the automatic promotion spots even where the margin for error is applied, should be automatically promoted;
d) Teams in the play-off places or who could be in the play-off places where the margin for error is applied should be invited (but not compelled) to compete in a play-off tournament; and
e) There would either be no relegations, or relegations only of clubs who would be relegated even after the margin of error has been applied

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Ah yes the penny has dropped now.
Waffle on a bit through points a to d to confuse everyone and then right at the end hit everyone with item e whilst it's still fresh in their minds.
Tranmere are asking for a reprieve and for everyone not to relegate them

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Originally Posted by CAMiller

I agree it's BS. Simply considering we were playing at a different level 2 of the last 3 seasons then how we did over the last 9 games is totally nonsensical.

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It isn't based on the performance of individual clubs, which would be a nonsense for the reason you give.

Tranmere are talking about looking at the tables for the last three years to establish the margin of error for using ppg as a predictor for final league positions (irrespective of the identity of the teams that were in the relevant positions). It looks clumsy and artificial to me.

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Originally Posted by caytonmiller

What does this line mean then?

There is then applied to the table the statistical average actual margin for error over the last 3 years (being +6.3 or – 5.45%);

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The Tranmere statement is a bit cack handed. At the beginning it does indeed state +6.3% or - 5.45% (suggests an either/or result) which makes no sense. later on it states - 5.45% to +6.3% which suggests a range of results. I'm guessing that this means that, over a 3 year average, the difference in teams' ppg performances, over the last 9 games of those seasons, range from being 5.45% worse than in the earlier games to being 6.3% better than in those earlier games. Each team's adjustment would be somewhere in that range

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Originally Posted by KerrAvon

It isn't based on the performance of individual clubs, which would be a nonsense for the reason you give.

Tranmere are talking about looking at the tables for the last three years to establish the margin of error for using ppg as a predictor for final league positions (irrespective of the identity of the teams that were in the relevant positions). It looks clumsy and artificial to me.

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If that's the case I'm way off the mark - which is distinctly possible

I'd love to see Tranmere's working out. They must have a pet statistician on the job.

Agree with Warne about maintaining some dignity. If we are promoted on ppg, we will have it thrown in our faces for seasons to come. Getting too 'loud' about it will make that worse.

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Originally Posted by KerrAvon

I'd love to see Tranmere's working out. They must have a pet statistician on the job.

Agree with Warne about maintaining some dignity. If we are promoted on ppg, we will have it thrown in our faces for seasons to come. Getting too 'loud' about it will make that worse.

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Assuming that their maths are correct how are those 2 percentages (or either of them???) applied to the calculation of final positions?

The more convoluted it sounds from Tranmere the more it confuses me.
Nothing is simple these days..😂

The method I put forward last week is gaining in support from the EFL.

I have analysed the games, player profiles, weather conditions, pie prices relevant to inflation and sausage roll colourings from January 1982 and they are directly in line with those of February 2020 so with a margin of error of +/- 0.5% can predict that we would have won our last 9 games and therefore would have won the league had the season concluded.