O/T:- Some interesting Covid stats - possible high rates of asymptomatics

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28-05-2020, 06:36 PM
Old_pie

O/T:- Some interesting Covid stats - possible high rates of asymptomatics

A comprehensive study has been done on those locked in on a cruise ship.

https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early...nl-2020-215091

Quote:

Abstract

We describe what we believe is the first instance of complete COVID-19 testing of all passengers and crew on an isolated cruise ship during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Of the 217 passengers and crew on board, 128 tested positive for COVID-19 on reverse transcription–PCR (59%). Of the COVID-19-positive patients, 19% (24) were symptomatic; 6.2% (8) required medical evacuation; 3.1% (4) were intubated and ventilated; and the mortality was 0.8% (1). The majority of COVID-19-positive patients were asymptomatic (81%, 104 patients). We conclude that the prevalence of COVID-19 on affected cruise ships is likely to be significantly underestimated, and strategies are needed to assess and monitor all passengers to prevent community transmission after disembarkation.

Whilst it would be dangerous to project the figures to a nation it is somewhat worrying at how many are asymptomatic. "If you are feeling ill stay at home", well they are not and they are going around spreading it. "You've been in contact with someone who has Covid, have you got a cough, loss of smell, fever?". Well no - "ah ok then carry on".

So whilst it is good news that lots are getting it and not feeling ill, until we are all tested, and tested regularly, it seems to me that there is still a worry and we'll be socially distancing for a while yet.
28-05-2020, 06:45 PM
sidders

This is not news, Oldie, it's 'olds'. Was doing the rounds in March.
28-05-2020, 08:39 PM
Old_pie

Quote:

Originally Posted by sidders

This is not news, Oldie, it's 'olds'. Was doing the rounds in March.

I suggest you read it properly paying attention to the dates and days from embarkation.
28-05-2020, 08:59 PM
Elite_Pie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Old_pie

So whilst it is good news that lots are getting it and not feeling ill, until we are all tested, and tested regularly, it seems to me that there is still a worry and we'll be socially distancing for a while yet.

I won't pretend that I fully understood the report (it was bloody hard work), but the asymptomatic numbers are surprisingly high. I agree that's good in the sense that you can have the virus and not know you've got it, but not good in the sense you could pass it on more easily if you don't know you've got it. It suggests that the "test, test, test" advice early on from the WHO was correct.