Home advantage gone

[ivansneck]

These stats are from the Bundesliga as of yesterday but are probably refelcetd in all leagues. The disappearance of the home crowd has had a significant effect.

[magpie_mania]

Been saying that all season.

At one time there had been more away wins than home, not sure if it still the case.

[upthemaggies]

Average home ppg for all clubs in the division we've been in since relegation to tier 4 under Derry/Moniz.........

season 2105/16 (4th tier) -1.42
season 2016/17 (4th tier)- 1.46
season 2017/18 (4th tier)- 1.59
season 2018/19 (4th tier)- 1.59
season 2019/20 (5th tier)- 1.49
season 2020/21 (5th tier)- 1.44

So this season is the 2nd lowest in the last half decade but there have been bigger fluctuations than the current one.

[upthemaggies]

Away PPG for the same period

2015/16 (4th tier) - 1.32
2016/17 (4th tier) - 1.28
2017/18 (4th tier) - 1.15
2018/19 (4th tier) - 1.14
2019/20 (5th tiier) - 1.23
2020/21 (5th tier) - 1.37

This season is the highest, so it looks as though no crowd means no major impact on home wins but there are less draws and those draws are being turned into away wins.

[queenslandpie]

Away PPG for the same period

2015/16 (4th tier) - 1.32
2016/17 (4th tier) - 1.28
2017/18 (4th tier) - 1.15
2018/19 (4th tier) - 1.14
2019/20 (5th tiier) - 1.23
2020/21 (5th tier) - 1.37

This season is the highest, so it looks as though no crowd means no major impact on home wins but there are less draws and those draws are being turned into away wins.

Perhaps someone can pass these stats to Neal Ardley then so he can play a formation away from home which is attack minded.

[TheBlackHorse]

... nothing like a negative attitude is there. Defeated before you start. We are where we are; suck it up ...

[magpie_mania]

In the Prem this season there have been 57 home wins and 59 away wins.

Last season 162 home wins, 116 away wins.

Season before with no Covid at all, 184 home wins, 127 away wins.

Definitely a lowering of home advantage there.

[upthemaggies]

Notts' division only, all averages per game.....

2015/16
Goals per game: 2.67
Home goals: 1.38 Away goals: 1.29
Home wins: 0.39 Away wins: 0.36 Draws: 0.26

2016/17
Goals per game: 2.65
Home goals: 1.42 Away goals: 1.23
Home wins: 0.40 Away wins: 0.34 Draws: 0.26

2017/18
Goals per game: 2.64
Home goals: 1.48 Away goals: 1.16
Home wins: 0.44 Away wins: 0.30 Draws: 0.26

2018/19
Goals per game: 2.55
Home goals: 1.42 Away goals: 1.13
Home wins: 0.44 Away wins: 0.29 Draws: 0.27

2019/20
Goals per game: 2.69
Home goals: 1.46 Away goals: 1.24
Home wins: 0.41 Away wins: 0.32 Draws: 0.27

2020/21
Goals per game: 2.77
Home goals: 1.49 Away goals: 1.28
Home wins: 0.42 Away wins: 0.39 Draws: 0.19


Noticeably less draws this season compared to the previous 5.
Maybe players are less inclined to settle for draws because there's no tension from the crowd getting through to them towards the end of games?

[ivansneck]

Notts' division only, all averages per game.....


Noticeably less draws this season compared to the previous 5.
Maybe players are less inclined to settle for draws because there's no tension from the crowd getting through to them towards the end of games?

Very interesting, because in the Bundesliga the proportion of draws has gone up by 50%. Gladbach have drawn far more home games than usual and I interpret that as not having the famously noisy crowd urging them on in the last part of the game.