OT interesting side effect of covid

[Geoff Parkstone]

With city centre working likely to be stopped or curtailed, the likes of Pret (3000 staff laid off) are shrinking. Other sandwich bars, coffee shops etc and the restaurant / bar sector will follow suit causing many more city centre job losses. Its unlikely home workers will head into their local hub to buy sandwiches or coffee.

A couple of years ago Pret said that 85% of customer facing staff were EU imports, and my personal experience supports the conjecture that many staff in food n drink were non indigineous.

So in many ways Brexit and covid seem to be working in harmony as demand and supply of labour offset, and UK economy dependence on imported labour will not be so impacted by Brexit, at least in this small sector.

I wonder to what extent this will be mirrored elsewhere in the economy, where covid related redundancy is cushioned by the removal of EU labour from the workforce?

[swaledale]

I took my cat to the vets yesterday, the vet was a very nice polish lady, my most recent encounter with the health service was with a portuguese dentist. So not all jobs undertaken by eu migrants are low skilled.

I'd say you were being a tad simplistic, the reason the Uk economy requires migrant labour is down to demographics, of course we could do like the Polish government is doing and have a campaign for more children per family from our citizens, however that will take 18 years at least before it has an impact!

It is true that in sectors such as agriculture, food processing, care, NHS, hospitality there is a high number of eu immigrants, I did see some idea from somewhere that the 1,000's of people being made redundant in the airline industry could be retrained as care workers - mm not sure thats going to "fly". What is true is that if we lose the vegetable pickers, the food packers, the care staff and the NHS staff then we will be in the ****e big time!

[Geoff Parkstone]

I don't disagree on the continuing need for migrant workers - not just from EU, especially in care sector where it seems the average Brit thinks they are too good to do the job. My point was that the changing face of the covid work environment may soften the blow of losing access to EU labour

[Andy_Faber]

I don't disagree on the continuing need for migrant workers - not just from EU, especially in care sector where it seems the average Brit thinks they are too good to do the job. My point was that the changing face of the covid work environment may soften the blow of losing access to EU labour

Your Pret point (which extends into the whole coffee shop sector I guess) is a good one but I must stick up for British/English care workers at least in respect of my two elderly relatives in care locally, where British carers are massively in the majority, in fact many come from (ie their family come from) within a few miles of the two homes concerned - pretty dedicated people who either treat the role as a vocation (good for them) or 'just a job' that's a lot better than the alternative (still good)

[Andy_Faber]

With city centre working likely to be stopped or curtailed, the likes of Pret (3000 staff laid off) are shrinking. Other sandwich bars, coffee shops etc and the restaurant / bar sector will follow suit causing many more city centre job losses. Its unlikely home workers will head into their local hub to buy sandwiches or coffee.

Not sure where your residence is GP but in my manor, the 'local hub' effect is in full operation, with local enterprises busting a ******* to a) meet the needs of people now working from home/furloughed/'between jobs' and of course b) survive financially, many making a marketing point of 'locally made/locally grown' etc. The only current problem we have round here is that the one big car park is now bursting at the seems as people 'go local' for their meals out and coffee (or God forbid, tea) fix. I'm not sure Local Jobs created - Central Jobs Lost = anywhere near zero, but all power to those folk for putting the effort in (and being inventive)

[Geoff Parkstone]

OK Andy: live in Surrey, often need to travel to London

A. During 4 months home working I spent about £2 in my local hub sandwich and coffee bars - admittedly spending more in local shop on bread, teabags etc as I simply made food at home. The £ 2 was because I needed to visit bank in local hub since I still have 1 client who pays me by cheque!!

B. In a typical 4 months working in my local office / London I would spend perhaps £ 350 - 400 on take out coffee and sandwich lunches

I'd say my experience is not atypical and if we equate Sandwich / coffee shop revenues to employment levels then A minus B is definitely a net loss of revenue and labour requirements across the country. Its not a matter of spending the same money in different places in the hospitality sector, it about spending less money and in different places - ergo coffee shop employment must fall.

My son, who works in central London and lives in suburbia, would typically spend £ 8 a day in sandwich shops and plenty more on copious amounts of after work bevies. the sandwich shop spending has not switched to local hubs, but rather to a slight increase in supermarket spend. The post work drinking is still virtual, chatting on zoom whilst drinking beer from supermarket off sales. very occasional visits to local pubs, but London is a big and soul-less environment: your normal drinking buddies from work are now maybe 30 miles away in different directions, he knows next to nobody locally to share a drink wit in the pub now that they are open. There again, you will not get the switch from central to local hub. its business lost to Sainsburys. LIDL etc for half the price.

So in the shires and smaller connurbations you may see closer to a balance switching from centre to local hub, but in London, its sheer vastness and impersonal nature will see that business lost to the supermarkets

[AdiSalisbury]

I would spend perhaps £ 350 - 400 on take out coffee and sandwich lunches

You might want to invest in some tupperware, you'll save a fortune!

[Andy_Faber]

OK Andy: live in Surrey, often need to travel to London

A. During 4 months home working I spent about £2 in my local hub sandwich and coffee bars - admittedly spending more in local shop on bread, teabags etc as I simply made food at home. The £ 2 was because I needed to visit bank in local hub since I still have 1 client who pays me by cheque!!

B. In a typical 4 months working in my local office / London I would spend perhaps £ 350 - 400 on take out coffee and sandwich lunches

I'd say my experience is not atypical and if we equate Sandwich / coffee shop revenues to employment levels then A minus B is definitely a net loss of revenue and labour requirements across the country. Its not a matter of spending the same money in different places in the hospitality sector, it about spending less money and in different places - ergo coffee shop employment must fall.

My son, who works in central London and lives in suburbia, would typically spend £ 8 a day in sandwich shops and plenty more on copious amounts of after work bevies. the sandwich shop spending has not switched to local hubs, but rather to a slight increase in supermarket spend. The post work drinking is still virtual, chatting on zoom whilst drinking beer from supermarket off sales. very occasional visits to local pubs, but London is a big and soul-less environment: your normal drinking buddies from work are now maybe 30 miles away in different directions, he knows next to nobody locally to share a drink wit in the pub now that they are open. There again, you will not get the switch from central to local hub. its business lost to Sainsburys. LIDL etc for half the price.

So in the shires and smaller connurbations you may see closer to a balance switching from centre to local hub, but in London, its sheer vastness and impersonal nature will see that business lost to the supermarkets

Broadly agreed. A side issue, Mrs F Had an obligation to travel to London from Derby with work but has no love for it, she has commented that her workmates, who travel from the outskirts of London treat the working day as an extension of their social lives, with most having between 1 and 5 (!) ‘social’ events with workmates or close-by working friends daily. That’s a **** load of money passing hands to the Barristas, currently lost, BUT she says there is a big push by these people to get back in the office, she suspects to reactivate those social events as much as/more than for work efficiency. She co-works in a remote office block in Cannock where the old order was much more work-focussed and there’s No such desire to get back into the office. I think I’m reinforcing your sons observation, but I DO think because of this social aspect the big cities will return to the old ways

[ramAnag]

You might want to invest in some tupperware, you'll save a fortune!

He’s an accountant, Adi...probably on ‘expenses’.

[MadAmster]

GP, get your lad to go into a local boozer. He might not have friends/acquaintances there now but he never will if he doesn't venture out.

Visiting local bars in the East of Amsterdam as well as City Centre ones was how I got to know a lot of people when I moved to Amsterdam some 36 years ago. Through those people I got to know people who played rugby or football or cricket and that got me to the sport clubs to play again. You get out of life what you put into it. If he stays at home he isn't going to get to know anybody local.

Meant as advice to, not criticism of, your lad.