Another good bet ?

[sinkov]

Remember this ?

"4/1 Huddersfield BT, I think that under-estimates their chances by some distance, might be worth a few bob."

I think I might have found another one, Burnley v Liverpool 9/2 a draw.

Really, that looks wrong to me. It might not be good to watch, we might only have won one home game, but we've drawn six and only two away teams have won, we are a difficult team to beat at Turf Moor. Liverpool are a top team obviously, they've played 12 away games and won 7, drawn 3 and lost 2, they are not invincible, they've failed to win almost half of their away games.

Using our home stats and Liverpool's away stats suggest that our chances of winning are remote indeed, but the game has a just over 40% chance of ending in a draw, equating to around 6/4, but the bookies are offering 9/2. Of course football isn't played on a calculator, and Liverpool will be formidable opponents, the stats say this game has a 42% chance of being a draw, the bookies say it has an 18% chance of being a draw. Possibly the 'true' odds are something in between the two. That's what I reckon anyway, so I'm having a few bob on @ 9/2, I think the bookies have got it wrong.

[The Bedlington Terrier]

I'm off to Corals as we speak. Funnily enough, I have 1-1 in our prediction league and OMG - do I need a result.

[sinkov]

I'm not going overboard BT, only a smallish bet, the bookies might have underestimated, but the stats overestimate as well, they're based on our 9 home games, but none of those games were against a team as good as Liverpool. I reckon the draw should possibly be around 3/1, a 25% chance, so I'll take the 9/2.