The Metrics of Football & why DCL was always the wrong choice.

[Ragatino]

To start I want to get into the numbers of last season v the previous one.

In the 22/23 season Newcastle United finished 4th with 71 points.
We won 19, drew 14, lost 5
Scoring 68, conceding 33 – dif 35

In the 23/24 season Newcastle United finished 7th with 60 points.
We won 18, drew 6, lost 14
Scoring 85, conceding 62 – dif 23

The Delta between the two seasons of 11 points was clearly not due to games won. We won only 1 less last season than our 4th place finish the season before.

So, it’s in the margins between draws and losses. Had we maintained the consistency of turning loses into draws. Newcastle United would have an additional +9 points finishing with
18 wins, 15 draws, 5 losses.

Adding the 9 points to our 60-point total = 69points
Aston Villa qualified for the UCL in 4th on 68points

We really gave the team and manager pelters at times for not being consistent. We can point to games like Bournemouth and Luton. The season wasn’t as bad as we thought.

We scored 17 more goals last season that the previous
We shipped 29 more goals last season that the previous

The facts are the facts. Our defence was not as strong as in 22/23 season.

Anthony Gordon’s quote about availability rings so many bells with me. The unavailability of Botman and Pope are the cause of our drop in position. It is clear by the numbers that the Goal keeping injury to Pope & the defensive injury to Botman cost us 3 places and 11 points last season.

The club are focused on improving defensive and goal keeping options to improve those weak positions. It’s good to see. Trafford is a solid option, Mamardashvili is showing at the Euros why his tipped to be a generational talent. We’ll have to see how that all works out over the next few weeks.

“The Best form of defence is attack” – some smart bloke

We banged in record breaking numbers of goals last season, but the difference is in games we lost we didn’t score ‘IMPORTANT GOALS’.

Important goal scorers, like the colossus Joseul (I joke but the lad came up with the good for Real when they needed it) are difference makers. In our case difference between a 2nd season in the champions league and not playing in Europe at all next season.


The Right-wing weakness.

We have known we need to balance the squad with matching quality out wide on the right as we do have on the left. We really need to have a player of Gordon’s talent on the right to provide an equal threat and make us even more deadly going forward. If we’re going to ship goals like last season, we need another record-breaking goal scoring season. The output of the current top players can improve but that is a fine margin of improvement. We need to bring in players who are gonna add equal numbers of output in the weaker position.

We’ll see have to wait and see who the club brings in to improve that position. All the names mentioned MBuemo, Olise etc will improve us. I’m calm and confident that whoever the club brings in will raise those statistical levels in that position.


The supporting striker issue.

The point of this threat, why I started it was to highlight the unsuitability of DCL to take us to where we need to go.

With Isak growing into his potential as a generational talent the addition we should be looking at is someone in the 20-22-year-old range with a record in one of the Euro Leagues of 8-12 goals.
The much-discussed Hamburg Guirassy and his £15m release clause whilst he’s 28 and contradicts the above statement in terms of age, he’s a goal scorer with 28 goals in 28 appearances last season. The previous season scores 11 in 22 games.

His Current wage is €41,538, £35,144 a week. The Club were considering prepared to improve DCL’s £120,000 a week salary to sign him. Offering the player triple his wages to join would make a lot more sense than signing the Everton Donkey. Newcastle United were prepared to go to £25million to sign the player, crazy!

We’ve all talked it to death, Wilson, always injured, when he’s fit he gets goals. DCL has been fit all last season, 32 games, 26 starts only 7 goals.

Guirassyis a big powerful forward with no outstanding injury problems. It’s a far better option. I wonder why there isn’t more confident steps taken to bring that player in?

I guess it remains to be seen if the option of competing with Isak for the starting position & that we’re not in Europe this season as something that is attractive to him. Moreover, the club have been patient with bringing in their first-choice targets, Botman as an example. Rather than going out and getting another target they waited until the player was available.

Perhaps that means we’re going to wait until next summer to bring in Sesko. There will be a lot of competition for the player and should be not get top 4 next season we will disadvantaged in our pursuit.

I genuinely understand Eddie Howe’s desire to have a core of British players & the club requires a home-grown quota of players for European competition next season, should be qualify. No doubt we will see European competition of some description so that is a consideration but DCL and others of that Ilk are far away from being at the level we genuinely need to take us up the league and put us in contention with the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City.

A season long loan for Gonçalo Ramos as he’s barely played for PSG last season or a player of that quality would buy us a season whilst we wait until Sesko is available. However, if and but don’t win trophies. Who’s to say the guy will want to move next season?


So, what’s the point of discussion here?

I’ve seen a lot of comments about ‘Yeah DCL would be alright as 2nd striker’. I want to make it clear, the facts, the stats of what Newcastle United need to have a more complete season is exactly what DCL fails to deliver.

We need to tighten up again at the back, Pope in from the start or even the transfer of Mamardashvili to enhance that position further and the return of Botman in December/January from his ACL will certainly improve us.

The ability to win games from losing positions, bring in players who will make a difference and win games from losing positions requires a specific type of player.

I guess I’m asking those who made the Yeah DCL would be alright as 2nd strikes’ do they think that Newcastle United’s offer of £25million and an enhanced wage packet of +£120,000 a week will deliver the goals we need to turn games from loses to draws, draws to wins?

Will that man be able to take us back to the top 4 across the season if our defence doesn’t improve greatly on the 23/24 season?

Cheers lads, I appreciate it’s a massive ramble, however should give you something to read whilst on the throne!

[Jammy89]

Very good ramble though Rag.

[Ragatino]

Very good ramble though Rag.

Cheers mate. I appreciate your comment.

I'm trying to get to the meat of the difference between our two seasons since the take over and what we need to do next season.

The numbers are what matter. Football is a lot of emotion and opinion. Obviously we're all entitled to our opinions. The one massive reason why I've been a member of this board for so long is because we have a great core of people who can have blo0dy good debates about things and bring a wide range of considered thought to the table.

The odd Mackem Sniper gets shredded which is always funny. There are some good lads from other teams who come on and have the craic too.

We aren't insane, the general discord here is based in reality of what we do on and off the pitch. We pick the bones out of most subjects and the stats get a thorough going over.

It's a decent forum and I'm pleased to be a small part of the community.

Howay the board and sign us a worldie Right winger, Mamardashvili & a brilliant 2nd striker.

[Sclox]

Great work Raga. A lot of thought went into that and great talking points. You always have interesting inputs and I enjoy reading your views every time. I mostly agree with them all as well.

I think it should be recognised that although DCL goals to games is less than Wilsons, look at the teams he played on vs ours. He aint worth 100k though and theres no guarantee of fitness nor is there a guarantee of Isaks either.

There may not be many better 2nd string strikers available now though barring our own Wilson who is very underated. Its just his age and injuries man but I think we could definately do better for the quoted 37 mill and I think we need to along with an upgrade to Miggy.

That said though I am pretty certain that with the same injury luck as we had the season before last and no Europe we will be back in the top 4 again next year. We have a very formidable team.

[Ragatino]

I think it should be recognised that although DCL goals to games is less than Wilsons, look at the teams he played on vs ours. He aint worth 100k though and theres no guarantee of fitness nor is there a guarantee of Isaks either.

Cheers Sclox mate, I appreciate you!

It's good to have the crack with likeminded fan of our great club. You're contribution, along with the rest of the lads is one of the major reasons I maintain a presence here. It's a small slice of home in the desert!

Good point about Everton's current situation as a club and team compared to our own. Perhaps I am being a bit harsh on the lad and at the same, as with you all, I have high aspirations for the club. I was pleased to see the club sign BDB, Trippier, Tino, Gordon and even thought it was a bit baffling Barnes (as we'd already signed Gordon for that position). However, Barnes was available and his a guy with great output and is English for those Euro quotas. It made sense.

We all respect Wilson and his contribution for the team. One of the reasons why I'm dead against signing Neto, despite him being a genuinely quality player on his day, those day, like many including DCL are few and far between.

As a club in our stage of development we can't afford to carry players. I just don't want us to have a squad of passengers.

Personally I never got over the 'Owen' situation. We were the only club how made him an offer to come back and he showed us no respect whilst he collected massive wages on the treatment table.

I'd rather have a Longstaff than an Owen, someone how isn't the very best but will fight for the bad.

'A team that tries'.