There for the taking

[MagpieNate]

I’m convinced promotion is there for the taking for Notts this year. Bit of a slow Sunday morning for me so had a look through our remaining fixtures and what we will likely need to get over the line.

Firstly, the main reason we may miss out.. injuries. We don’t have the most prolific strikers and so need our creative players available to create enough chances. Defensively we are generally sound now and will likely concede at a goal a game.

We’ve done well against teams outside the top 7 (naturally) so looking at Wins against COL H, TRA H, BAR H, CHEL H, FLE A, NEW A, HAR A, COL A
= 24 points and puts us on 77 points. That still leaves the tougher games CHES H, CREWE H, MK H, SAL H, DON H, WIM A, GRI A, BRA A.

Obviously we won’t win all those 8 ‘easier games’ but we will win some of the ‘harder’ games. 85 points should be achievable.

Even if you put down CHES H, WIM A, BRA A and GRI A as defeats there’s enough games left to get over 80 points.

Really hoping we get a few bodies back for next week. 6 points against COL and TRA would be huge. 2, 3 or even 4 points would be a bit of a blow to our chances.

Anyway, enjoy your Sundays and COYP.

[Seasonedpie]

As above, in our hands bar injuries. Have looked at top 10 teams fixtures and how many games they have against others in top 10 including us. As follows
Walsall x
Bradford x5
AFC W'don x5
Doncaster x6
Port Vale x6
Salford x6
Crewe x9
Grimsby x5
Chessie x5
Us x7

As you can see top 10 have lots of fixtures against each other. We just need to forget the rest and go on another run. Top 3 here we come.

[Jampie]

It's very doable. Injuries and other bad luck could sink it. Bit with a bit of luck on our side, this season could end extremely well, exceeding almost everyone's expectations here IIRC. Can't remember many predicting auto at the start of the season. I think I said sixth or something.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

I’m convinced promotion is there for the taking for Notts this year. Bit of a slow Sunday morning for me so had a look through our remaining fixtures and what we will likely need to get over the line.

Firstly, the main reason we may miss out.. injuries. We don’t have the most prolific strikers and so need our creative players available to create enough chances. Defensively we are generally sound now and will likely concede at a goal a game.

We’ve done well against teams outside the top 7 (naturally) so looking at Wins against COL H, TRA H, BAR H, CHEL H, FLE A, NEW A, HAR A, COL A
= 24 points and puts us on 77 points. That still leaves the tougher games CHES H, CREWE H, MK H, SAL H, DON H, WIM A, GRI A, BRA A.

Obviously we won’t win all those 8 ‘easier games’ but we will win some of the ‘harder’ games. 85 points should be achievable.

Even if you put down CHES H, WIM A, BRA A and GRI A as defeats there’s enough games left to get over 80 points.

Really hoping we get a few bodies back for next week. 6 points against COL and TRA would be huge. 2, 3 or even 4 points would be a bit of a blow to our chances.

Anyway, enjoy your Sundays and COYP.

It's quite within our own hands.

I've had a look at a projection based on the results obtained earlier in the season. Obviously the anomaly is Colchester as we have no result to go on.

P16, W8, D6, L2, Pts 30.

(H) Tranmere (Win)
(H) Colchester (Unknown so let's say win with it being at home)
(A) Fleetwood (Draw)
(H) Barrow (Draw)
(A) Wimbledon (Win)
(A) Grimsby (Win)
(H) Chesterfield (Draw)
(H) Crewe (Lose)
(A) Newport County (Draw)
(H) MK Dons (Win)
(A) Colchester (Unknown so lets say draw with it being away)
(H) Salford (Lose)
(A) Bradford (Win)
(H) Cheltenham (Win)
(A) Harrogate (Win)
(H) Doncaster (Draw)

This would have us finishing on 83 points that should be enough for automatic. Regardless of who the results are against we essentially need 30 points and effectively win all but half our remaining games to stand a chance of automatic promotion. It's achievable especially when nine of those games are at home.

There are some big away games to come such as AFC Wimbledon and Bradford. Big games at home such as Crewe, Salford and Doncaster. Chesterfield will be big because of our recent history and it being a local derby.

There will be plenty of twists and turns no doubt. Time to buckle up and enjoy the ride.

[bufordpie]

I suspect that a number of clubs feel the same way.

[marky]

If we get 6 points in these 2 home matches it would take some pressure off but whenever we have two home games in a week we always seem to slip up at least once.

[tommopie8]

If we get 6 points in these 2 home matches it would take some pressure off but whenever we have two home games in a week we always seem to slip up at least once.

This was my worry too but hopefully the defeat last Thursday means we come out firing against Colchester and can carry it into a strong start against Tranmere.

[Floodlightclimber]

This was my worry too but hopefully the defeat last Thursday means we come out firing against Colchester and can carry it into a strong start against Tranmere.

Having started the same speculation 7 games ago, I got us to 83 points at the time and we are +2 points up on what I?d listed back then, but I reckon the reality is that we need 9 or 10 points out of the next 4 games as it then gets pretty hard in March. I don?t fancy us getting much more than 5 points from the 6 games away at Wimbledon, Grimsby and Bradford and home to Crewe, MK and Chesterfield based up how we do against top sides and the needle in a few of those games if we have lost confidence over the next fortnight. If we?re on 63 points at the end of the Barrow game on March 4th, we?ll go up in the Autos. 60 points or less and I reckon it is playoffs.

[Glad2BeAPie]

If we get 6 points in these 2 home matches it would take some pressure off but whenever we have two home games in a week we always seem to slip up at least once.

Its the Notts County way of fecking things up, when you expect them to take advantage of the situation, when they know what's expected,

[maddogslater]

We need to get a ruthless killer instinct and start with Colchester, as apposed to a negative passive approach that seems to have been pervasive at vale