o/t please help settle an argument.

[the_idiotb_stardson]

Over Sunday dinner a relative of mine told me how he was going to cash in his premium bonds, which he has been buying in fits and starts over a number of years and then buy back the premium bonds in one large block , because this would mean ERNIE would have a bigger chance of landing on his numbers. I thought this through and then said, I think the chances of your number being chosen are the same whether you have a big block of numbers or they are scattered about, it makes no difference.

This debate escalated and other members of the family joined in.

It also morphed into the idea that if you chose red and black numbers on a roulette wheel in a block taking up a third of the wheel you would then have more chance of wining than if the same amount of chosen red and black numbers were scattered around the wheel. Again i said it would make no difference.

I didn't want to look this up on the internet as it seemed quite interesting to listen to all the various theories on this.

Anyway, I will now ask all the MM punters what they think?

[Grist_To_The_Mill]

ERNIE the Electronic Random Number Indicator Equipment, is used to pick premium bond winning numbers, there’s a clue in there somewhere.

Whether it’s “wise” to buy them in the first place is another question.

[the_idiotb_stardson]

grist but does Ernie have a great chance of landing in a block of numbers or on lots of separate numbers?

[Pattylallacks2]

Ernie is inordinately fond of Number 22.

[mikemiller]

Ernie is inordinately fond of Number 22.

I believe that you may be thinking of Guinivere... like King Arthur often did
Two little ducks sounds like what IBS's corporate mates found when dredging their duckpond

[Grist_To_The_Mill]

It resets after each selection.

As for your roulette wheel a block of reds (or blacks) would be slightly less than half not a third, allowing for the zero which is there to “weight” the wheel in favour of the casino. It breaks up the 50/50 chance of winning.

Here’s another poser for you about tossing a coin (an unbiased perfectly weighted coin). In 20 tosses of the coin the first 19 come out all as heads. You’ve got £1 to bet on the next toss to win a million what do you choose, heads or tails?

[gm_gm]

It resets after each selection.

As for your roulette wheel a block of reds (or blacks) would be slightly less than half not a third, allowing for the zero which is there to “weight” the wheel in favour of the casino. It breaks up the 50/50 chance of winning.

Here’s another poser for you about tossing a coin (an unbiased perfectly weighted coin). In 20 tosses of the coin the first 19 come out all as heads. You’ve got £1 to bet on the next toss to win a million what do you choose, heads or tails?

It doesn’t matter as it’s still 50/50

[Grist_To_The_Mill]

It doesn’t matter as it’s still 50/50

Yes, because the coin doesn’t have a memory of what it did previously, but a lot of folks would be thinking “heads 19 times in a row the next one has got to be tails”

[the_idiotb_stardson]

It doesn’t matter as it’s still 50/50

what about the premium bonds gm?

[CAMiller]

It doesn’t matter as it’s still 50/50

That's correct but I'd be tempted to call heads as after 19 in a row I'd be questioning the 'bias'.