
Originally Posted by
Nardendee
Wigan need a point for promotion, three to take the title. They might not need a point to take the title.
We will win the title if we win and Wigan don’t. We will be promoted if MK lose, a draw would be no good for them either unless we lose by 6 goals, (unlikely) in which case they would go up on goals scored.
If MK win they will be promoted with Wigan if we fail to win. They could win the title if they win and Wigan lose and there is a seven goal swing, unless we win, in which case us and MK would be promoted.
No team below current third has a chance of automatics.
If Wednesday win they will definitely finish 4th. If Sunderland win they will finish at least fifth, and fourth if Wednesday don’t win.
Either Sunderland or Wednesday could miss out altogether. For Wednesday to miss out they would have to lose and Sunderland avoid defeat and Plymouth and Wycombe win. For Sunderland to miss out they could draw, Wednesday would need to avoid defeat and Plymouth and Wycombe win.
Plymouth could win and miss out but could lose and finish 6th if Wycombe lost at Burton. The only way Plymouth could miss out if they win would be if Wycombe won at Burton by 2 goals more than Plymouth win by. Wycombe could win and miss out if all the others win but Plymouth have a winning result matching Wycombes winning margin or at worst 1 goal less. Eg Plymouth win 1-0 Wycombe would need to win by 3 to overhaul them.
There is a scenario where any of Wednesday, Sunderland, Plymouth or Wycombe finish 4th but there is also a scenario where any of these teams could miss out altogether.
Relegation. Crewe Doncaster & Wimbledon are effectively relegated. The final spot is between Morecambe, Fleetwood & Gillingham.
If Morecambe win they are safe. If Fleetwood win they are safe. If Gillingham win they would still go down if Fleetwood and Morecambe win but would stay up if they draw and Fleetwood lose.
For Morecambe to be relegated they would need to lose and both Gillingham and Fleetwood win.
ps my brain hurts.