O/T:- ...Has the key to a coronavirus vaccine been staring us in the face?

[tarquinbeech]

Who said we are following the same curve?

....and if you can prove to me, and everyone else reading, that we are on the same curve, then what is this "2 weeks" or a "few weeks" that you keep talking about....according to me, and Wiki, Italy and the UK had their first cases on the same day
On 31 January, two members of a family of Chinese nationals staying in a hotel in York, one of whom studied at the University of York, became the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK.
On 31 January, the first two cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Rome. A Chinese couple, originally from Wuhan, who had arrived in Italy on 23 January via Milan Malpensa Airport, travelled from the airport to Verona, then to Parma, arriving in Rome on 28 January.

Then you started on about "curves" and "2-week lags".......but if both countries started at the same time, how come the Italians got over-run so quickly?

....and to check your "curve theory" I printed out both......THE UK STARTED OUT WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBER.....I REPEAT, THE HIGHEST NUMBER.......9 cases on 15th Feb......Italy had only 3......are you honestly not getting this or just pretending to be so stupid?

[Mapperleypie]

Bingo! Comparing deaths per million inhabitants only makes sense after the virus has run its course everywhere, so why do you insist on using it?

Two weeks ago you used a variety of statistics, so why do you now insist on only using this one?

Is it anything to do with the fact that it's the only statistic that gives a (falsely) positive impression of the situation in the countries where the virus took hold last, and where you like the political leaders - Boris and Trump?

And if you really want to use it, why not use it to compare countries at the same point in the spread of the virus, ie same number of days after first (pick a number) deaths? That might actually be a statistically useful comparison.

Don't be daft. That would be a reasonable way to look at the stats we can't possibly do that.

[queenslandpie]

.......but they are not applicable to the UK!!!!.....YOU ARE STILL 3 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO DIE IN AN ITALIAN HOSPITAL, THIS IS THE SAME FIGURE AS IT WAS WAS 2 WEEKS AGO

As each day goes by, my argument gets stronger, not weaker.....it may change in another week or another month......and if it does then well done to the Italian government.....but it does not make me wrong at the time I typed those comments

Stating you are 3 times more likely to die in an Italian hospital is skewing the stats. Look at the average age the population and average age of deaths in Italy and you will see what I mean. You are correct in some way but ultimately the root cause of deaths in Italy has very little to do with the quality of their health care and everything to do with the way the virus was initially managed and the age of the population.

[tarquinbeech]

....and to check your "curve theory" I printed out both......THE UK STARTED OUT WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBER.....I REPEAT, THE HIGHEST NUMBER.......9 cases on 15th Feb......Italy had only 3......are you honestly not getting this or just pretending to be so stupid?

Here are your 2 "curves" everyone....print them both to separate tabs and please, please, please can someone tell me what Driller is banging on about?....once again, someone has proven him wrong but he refuses to give in....even when the evidence is staring him in the face.
Graph of total cases of covid in UK.......https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Graph of Italy.....https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

[tarquinbeech]

Don't be daft. That would be a reasonable way to look at the stats we can't possibly do that.

You appear to be as brain dead as your buddy.....read the news and tell me on what day covid hit both countries?

[Mapperleypie]

You appear to be as brain dead as your buddy.....read the news and tell me on what day covid hit both countries?

This might help you Tarquin.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Calm down eh?

[drillerpie]

Who said we are following the same curve?

....and if you can prove to me, and everyone else reading, that we are on the same curve, then what is this "2 weeks" or a "few weeks" that you keep talking about....according to me, and Wiki, Italy and the UK had their first cases on the same day
On 31 January, two members of a family of Chinese nationals staying in a hotel in York, one of whom studied at the University of York, became the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK.
On 31 January, the first two cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Rome. A Chinese couple, originally from Wuhan, who had arrived in Italy on 23 January via Milan Malpensa Airport, travelled from the airport to Verona, then to Parma, arriving in Rome on 28 January.

Then you started on about "curves" and "2-week lags".......but if both countries started at the same time, how come the Italians got over-run so quickly?

Ha ha wow you're taking this in every conceivable direction to avoid answering a yes/no question. OK, deep breath:

The Chief Medical Officer during one of the public briefings said we were following a similar curve, and we were about 4 weeks behind. He later revised that down to 3 weeks and someone from the government, not sure if it was him, later said it was 2.

The reason all the companies in the world who compile statistics don't start from the first case, the first ten cases, the first death etc is because the circumstances of those cases can vary wildly. Your first case could be a tourist who obeys quarantine and stays in their hotel, or an asymptomatic drinks vending machine worker who visits 5 nursing homes a day (extreme example given to explain the concept, not saying this is what happened).

Speaky pointy man help you understand.

https://youtu.be/d8iQCdFavzw

[tarquinbeech]

Stating you are 3 times more likely to die in an Italian hospital is skewing the stats. Look at the average age the population and average age of deaths in Italy and you will see what I mean. You are correct in some way but ultimately the root cause of deaths in Italy has very little to do with the quality of their health care and everything to do with the way the virus was initially managed and the age of the population.

We've done all that Q, but now he is accusing me of twisting the physical figures to prove a point.....all I'm doing is posting the actual figures as I can see them on my computer screen, when it's actually him "twisting them" to prove his point.

This is exactly the same as Notts being on 50 points half way through the season and bragging about it on the way to automatic promotion, Driller supports Mansfield and waits until his team gets to 50 points, on the last day of the season to narrowly avoid relegation, and comes on here saying "you lot said you were brilliant (50 points) so Mansfield must be equally brilliant".....we calmly point out that we've now got double but he won't accept and waffles on about poor starts, 2 weeks delay in getting a goalie etc etc etc.
Facts are facts and I've played this game with him before......now I have a pounding headache and I needed to cut some grass.....grrrrrr

[tarquinbeech]

Ha ha wow you're taking this in every conceivable direction to avoid answering a yes/no question. OK, deep breath:

The Chief Medical Officer during one of the public briefings said we were following a similar curve, and we were about 4 weeks behind. He later revised that down to 3 weeks and someone from the government, not sure if it was him, later said it was 2.

The reason all the companies in the world who compile statistics don't start from the first case, the first ten cases, the first death etc is because the circumstances of those cases can vary wildly. Your first case could be a tourist who obeys quarantine and stays in their hotel, or an asymptomatic drinks vending machine worker who visits 5 nursing homes a day (extreme example given to explain the concept, not saying this is what happened).

Speaky pointy man help you understand.

https://youtu.be/d8iQCdFavzw

You know, I know, everyone else knows that nobody really has a clue how each country is doing relative to each other, and nobody knows how this going to end up....Italy and the UK started getting cases on the same day (check the stats)....Italy now has 3 times the death rate as the UK and 150 times the death of where it started, China.

I've pointed out FACTS, I've left links for graphs, I've copied-n-pasted links to Wiki.....you want me to deal in possibles or theories?

No thanks....I'm tired....you do this every time

[drillerpie]

I'm not denying that Italy and the UK had their first cases on the same day. I won't check the stats because I don't need to, I'm perfectly happy to take your word for it, not least because it doesn't matter!

The Chief Medical Officer of the UK, the academics who provide the statistics and modelling, the UK government, all accept that we are following a similar curve to Italy but are a few weeks behind.

If you want me to concede the point that the first 10 or 20 or 50 or 100 or whatever cases in the UK had more positive outcomes than in the first 10, 20 or 50 in Italy then I'm happy to do that, but the generally accepted mainstream logic is that the virus gained a significant foothold there first and in the UK some weeks after.