Who will be the UK Prime Minister at the end of 2024?

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

Truss?
Sunak?
Johnson?
Other Conservative?

Starmer?
Other Labour?

[griff]

I can’t see Truss getting much traction in the medium term, especially with other Tories. It’ll depend on what reports her MPs take back to her from constituents. If she doesn’t make them happy I can see her limping along then calling an election and Starmer making it over the line by about 5 seats.

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

In the General Election of 1945 nobody blamed the government for the bad times from 1939 to 1945. But the electorate had been through bad times for 6 years, powerless times. So, the electorate wanted to seize the first chance of using its power and threw out the Churchill government.

I believe that the current Conservative government will call a General Election in September 2024. The electorate will by then have been through bad times since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister on 24th July 2019. Let's consider that since that date a multitude of events have been bad for the UK electorate. Let's further consider that they were not caused by the government. Let's even consider that nobody believes that the government could have done any more to mitigate these bad circumstances.

So, similar to after the end of WW2, the electorate will have had a bad time from when the Johnson Premiership began on 24th July 2019 through to the middle of September 2024. Even if nobody blames the government for these bad times and nobody blames the government for its response I suggest that the electorate will throw out this government in a General Election in the middle of September 2024. It will simply be 'bad time fatigue' / 'powerless time fatigue' so 'time for a change' in a similar manner to the General Election of 1945.

It will be more of a Conservative defeat than a Labour win, making Starmer the Prime Minister at the end of 2024.