Tonight’s Games

[upthemaggies]

5th tier play off winners by final position

2nd: 6
3rd: 8
4th: 5
5th: 0
6th: 1
7th: 0

The rogue 6th placed winner was Grimsby last season.
Play offs were extended to include 6th and 7th from season 2017/18.

[Davy500]

5th tier play off winners by final position

2nd: 6
3rd: 8
4th: 5
5th: 0
6th: 1
7th: 0

The rogue 6th placed winner was Grimsby last season.
Play offs were extended to include 6th and 7th from season 2017/18.

As you would expect the majority promoted are from the top 3 , as its a much easier route
Grimsby last year , were just incredibly lucky , but i guess their fluke win over us gave them confidense they could win the next 2 games, if i had been a Grimsby player i would have brought a loterry ticket ASAP after the Notts game

[Magpies1959]

It would have been far more sensible for the Grimsby squad to collectively buy a lottery ticket and share out the winnings, otherwise there would have been a lot of disappointed players, and only one happy mariner

[Jampie]

5th tier play off winners by final position

2nd: 6
3rd: 8
4th: 5
5th: 0
6th: 1
7th: 0

The rogue 6th placed winner was Grimsby last season.
Play offs were extended to include 6th and 7th from season 2017/18.

On those numbers 2nd has a 30% chance of going up and 3rd as a 40%.

I suspect we have better than 30% because the gap between 2nd and 3rd is basically unprecedented.

Still you'd have to estimate us at under 50% for the playoffs as a whole, but over 50% if we get to the final.

[Maggie's Farm]

When Wrexham lost to Newport in the final a few years back they were streets ahead on points me duck. Once we are promoted I will stop being sceptical. Until then I will be! Other than that I had to read that post several times until my limited brain capacity ground into gear. Have a lovely day.

I was agreeing with you (!) just saying that 25 points difference isn't only about the points, but about the quality of the football we/Wrex are/were consistently capable of. Realistically, if we keep doing what we've been doing all season, we'll go up unless the ref steps in. Traditionally, however, you're right to imply that we're much more likely to turn up in snorkels and inflatable duck rings.

[Maggie's Farm]

On those numbers 2nd has a 30% chance of going up and 3rd as a 40%.

I suspect we have better than 30% because the gap between 2nd and 3rd is basically unprecedented.

Still you'd have to estimate us at under 50% for the playoffs as a whole, but over 50% if we get to the final.

I think this doesn't fully take into account the fight in the dog though. I'd wager Notts are a much better side this season than almost any of the other sides behind those stats. Doesn't mean we'll go up, jus sayin

[queenslandpie]

I was agreeing with you (!) just saying that 25 points difference isn't only about the points, but about the quality of the football we/Wrex are/were consistently capable of. Realistically, if we keep doing what we've been doing all season, we'll go up unless the ref steps in. Traditionally, however, you're right to imply that we're much more likely to turn up in snorkels and inflatable duck rings.

Absolutely me duck. However of the sides we will face in the semi 5 draws and 1 win this season. If they play for penalties they have a fighting chance! Not so much snorkels but perhaps goggles.

[Davy500]

I think this doesn't fully take into account the fight in the dog though. I'd wager Notts are a much better side this season than almost any of the other sides behind those stats. Doesn't mean we'll go up, jus sayin

Exactly so you know what i would say ? Id say Notts have 80% to 90% chance, we are much stronger than any other side. How much do we want it - cause we can AV IT if we want it

[durhampie]

Exactly so you know what i would say ? Id say Notts have 80% to 90% chance, we are much stronger than any other side. How much do we want it - cause we can AV IT if we want it

If we can lose to the likes of Dorking, then i wouldn't be that confident.. We have players in the side who are prone to making the occasional mistakes, if any of those have an off day then who knows...

[laddo]

Personally I would never go as high as 80/90% chance, that's excessive IMO. The fact is (so far) we lost to 3 sides in total over a season, with one being the only side to finish above us in the league. Of those 3 I think we deserved to lose one of them.

If you look at some of the sides each of the other playoff teams have lost to this season, I imagine it is quite the shopping list, with plenty of lower placed sides to choose from for each of our potential opponents.