O/T:- Betting odds for US Election [The USA Politics Thread]

[Jampie]

Polls and the polling analysts have it as basically a tie with a slight advantage to Harris. She wins in 53% of 538's modelled runs.

Which is incredibly bad, really, but it does indicate to me that the betting market is skewed for trump. Or the polls are very wrong.

[LaxtonLad]

Bring it on, 😃
I've heard and like quite a bit from Robert Kennedy Jr and Tulsey Gabbert who are in team Trump.
Harris is a cloan of Sleepy joe and just terrible in so many ways 😴

Robert Kennedy Jr is an extreme right-wing, conspiricy theorist, racist and rabid anti-vaccination activist who believes there is a dead parasitic worm in his brain.

He believes COVID was "engineered" by Jews to attack certain ethnic groups.

Last year he declared "UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES" would he join Trump.

He believes anti-depression medication causes school shootings as there were none before PROZAC.

According to his paranoid conspiracy theorists friends, chemtrails look like contrails but they are intentionally created by unknown people to poison us with unknown chemicals for some unknown reason.

Any evidence against his wild views on anything he endorses are "crazy statistical gimmicks".

And to top it all, he is a favourite of Tucker Carlson.

[i961pie]

The state of US politics when you have a vile nut job favourite to become the president of the world's most powerful nation. He is a convicted fellon and makes up stories that are laughable. If they elect him again they deserve everything they get.

[drillerpie]

I've learned a few things on NCM and one of them is from EP. Bugger the polls and the media, just follow the bookies. I don't gamble, but they seem to know a lot more than everyone else.

I've also learned how to block, which is liberating . Makes the discussions much more enjoyable.

To be fair they don't really know anything, they just adjust their odds according to how much money is bet on each outcome. They wouldn't have had Trump at 5000-1 in 2016 if they knew what would happen.

You could look at the money markets for a similar read on the election. USD is strengthening - you could take that as a sign people think Trump will win. Tariffs = inflation = FED will start raising nterest rates again = dollar strengthens.

[drillerpie]

As I have said many times before on here, betting is only a mugs game if you're a mug, but I wouldn't argue when you say a certain percentage of people WILL get addicted to it. It used to be easy to make a profit if you took advantage of the offers, but since affordability checks were introduced those offers have dried up.

Regarding the US election, the betting odds suggest a Trump win. Trump is a general 8/13 (62% probability), Harris is around 13/10 (43% probability). If you think it really is a coin toss, Harris is your value bet but I wouldn't recommend it.

As I have said many times the bookies wouldn't be raining special offers down on customers to get them started if the average punter wasn't profitable for them. Most people don't consider themselves mugs even when they are mugs, but they are, and I include myself in that! (I've lost more money than I've won over the years).

Having said that I don't doubt you are disciplined enough to make it work, but I fairly sure you're in the minority.

Last time I checked odds was a couple of months ago and both candidates were around evens, so they have moved in favour of Trump recently. It's too close to call IMO but as I said earlier I think the Dems will almost certainly win the popular vote.

[LaxtonLad]

As I have said many times the bookies wouldn't be raining special offers down on customers to get them started if the average punter wasn't profitable for them. Most people don't consider themselves mugs even when they are mugs, but they are, and I include myself in that! (I've lost more money than I've won over the years).

Having said that I don't doubt you are disciplined enough to make it work, but I fairly sure you're in the minority.

Last time I checked odds was a couple of months ago and both candidates were around evens, so they have moved in favour of Trump recently. It's too close to call IMO but as I said earlier I think the Dems will almost certainly win the popular vote.

Please tell me what a "popular vote" is.

[drillerpie]

Google is your friend

[Med Pie]

Bring it on, ��
I've heard and like quite a bit from Robert Kennedy Jr and Tulsey Gabbert who are in team Trump.
Harris is a cloan of Sleepy joe and just terrible in so many ways ��

Tulsi Gabbard, good effort though points deducted for not looking it up

[Med Pie]

The state of US politics when you have a vile nut job favourite to become the president of the world's most powerful nation. He is a convicted fellon and makes up stories that are laughable. If they elect him again they deserve everything they get.

It won't just be them though will it, Putin will be allowed to roll over Ukraine and God knows what the Israelis will be allowed to do. You know the old saying 'when America sneezes, the World catches a cold'.

[Chicken Balti Pie]

Please tell me what a "popular vote" is.

In the US the popular vote is overall vote count. The problem is, the presidential election isn't decided on popular vote but via the electoral college. Basically each state has a number of votes. Most states vote a certain way so you can pretty much declare them already such as California to Democrats and Texas (but for much longer) to republicans. There are only around 7 states that can swing it, hence why you need to look at the polls there to get a glimpse of how the election will go. As it stands, all are within margin of error but are swaying to Harris.

The betting markets are swayed from other sources as well. For example previously twitter was a left leaning echo chamber, it is now a right leaning echo chamber. A lot of noise on there for trump is pushed by musk from accounts unable to vote in US elections but the noise is there so people bet Trump. You also have polls where they ask if the person is Democrat or Republican, I'd argue it's more likely a Republican will vote for Harris than a Democrat will vote for Trump