O/T:- Betting odds for US Election [The USA Politics Thread]

[the_anticlough]

Anyway, since (there you go ) Trump's campaign descended into simulating oral *** with microphone stands and talking about *****es at his rallies, I think your average American nazi, fascist, xenophobe, anti-abortionist etc. as you put it is in for a very bad day tomorrow.

To me, it looks like Trump is getting trounced.

[Elite_Pie]

To me, it looks like Trump is getting trounced.

I hope you're right, but seeing as this thread is about betting odds the bookies don't agree. The best odds are currently 8/11 on a Trump win (58% probability), and 7/5 on a Harris win (42% probability).

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Trump isn't POTUS again.

[Mud Pie]

I hope you're right, but seeing as this thread is about betting odds the bookies don't agree. The best odds are currently 8/11 on a Trump win (58% probability), and 7/5 on a Harris win (42% probability).

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Trump isn't POTUS again.

sorry interjecting, it's an interesting question about the differences between betting and polls. Heard some discussion on NPR, I think, about how polls reflect who the respondents want to win, and betting who they think will win. [eta. and the kind of people who actively make bets vs those who pick up the phone for polls]

That said, and I'm no gambling man so don't pretend to understand all this, but they were also talking about very large bets made by some MAGA billionaire, not Musk, in a seeming attempt to make the odds make Trump look better. Is that a thing, and would it make a difference?

[Elite_Pie]

That said, and I'm no gambling man so don't pretend to understand all this, but they were also talking about very large bets made by some MAGA billionaire, not Musk, in a seeming attempt to make the odds make Trump look better. Is that a thing, and would it make a difference?

Quite possibly if the money was massive. The bookies don't care who wins, they frame the markets solely to make a profit. In a 50/50 choice like heads or tails, the bookies would go 10/11 on both to build in their profit margin. If all the money was going on heads, they would balance the books by going odds against on tails.

[Mud Pie]

Quite possibly if the money was massive. The bookies don't care who wins, they frame the markets solely to make a profit. In a 50/50 choice like heads or tails, the bookies would go 10/11 on both to build in their profit margin. If all the money was going on heads, they would balance the books by going odds against on tails.

thanks. I've no idea how big the bets were, but considering the engagement of the likes of Musk and Harlan Crow with Trump I guess it could be maybe enough to affect the odds.

If memory serves though, wasn't Hilary the odds on favourite to win in 2016?

[the_anticlough]

I hope you're right, but seeing as this thread is about betting odds the bookies don't agree. The best odds are currently 8/11 on a Trump win (58% probability), and 7/5 on a Harris win (42% probability).

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Trump isn't POTUS again.

It seems like there's all kinds of shady shenanigans going on both with polling and betting markets.
There's been an explosion of 'new' polls and manipulation of betting markets because the impression must be given of 'advantage Trump' as a pre-condition to challenge election results again. It's all need to convince his base. We know that pulling off a coup is as much the strategy as winning the vote.

Despite all this, I think you will get that pleasant surprise.

[BigFatPie]

It seems like there's all kinds of shady shenanigans going on both with polling and betting markets.
There's been an explosion of 'new' polls and manipulation of betting markets because the impression must be given of 'advantage Trump' as a pre-condition to challenge election results again. It's all need to convince his base. We know that pulling off a coup is as much the strategy as winning the vote.

Despite all this, I think you will get that pleasant surprise.

Yeah the betting markets have been decisively Trump favoured for quite a while now. In GB many people who maybe haven’t been paying close attention seem to think he was a shoe in, despite polls not being that clear cut.

I put a bet on Harris not long after Biden quit, and I’m cautiously optimistic. Swing states seem to be swinging her way.

[Lullapie]

The electoral college system is obviously an undemocratic anachronism, and would be scrapped if it wasn't advantageous for Republicans to keep it in place.

Gore got more votes than Bush, but lost
Clinton got more votes than Trump, but lost

Imagine if that was the other way around, the Republicans would have gone crazy and the system would be history already
(at least Biden's 7million advantage in 2020 was so clear cut than even the electoral college couldn't save for the Reps that time)

Votes should be equal. Some votes being worth more than others due to historical, geographical quirks is indefensible really.
The Senate already provides state representation - the presidency needs to be based on a straight popular vote

And it can't be healthy than the majority of the country is neglected and all campaigning activity converges on such a few 'swing states'. The whole country should be buzzing with activity at these times

Of course, Reform UK got 14.3% of the vote in the 2024 UK Election but only 0.8% of the seats. Closer to my home (New Zealand), in 2017, Labour got 36.9% of the vote, against 44.4% by the National Party (sort of centre-right Tories), but ended up running the government.

That's the rules and everyone knows them before they start. You're argument has exactly 0.00% of relevance.

Or do you agree that Adolf Farage should have more power in the UK Parliament?

Strange how you one-eyed lefties, only see things with erm.......one eye.

[Lullapie]

I hope you're right, but seeing as this thread is about betting odds the bookies don't agree. The best odds are currently 8/11 on a Trump win (58% probability), and 7/5 on a Harris win (42% probability).

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Trump isn't POTUS again.

Spot on EP. The odds narrowed yesterday after Ann Selzer's Iowa poll that put Harris 3% up on Trump in a state that has been red since 2016.
Iowans love Trump - I'm more than happy to apologise after the election if I'm wrong.

The devil is in the detail though. Ann Selzer is an anti-Trump Republican, a bit like dear old Liz Cheney. She hates Trump. All the polls prior and since in Iowa have put Trump well out in the lead. It was probably just a rogue poll - that the left-wing media picked up and ran with it.

I notice that they aren't reporting today that three polls since the Selzer one in Iowa, put Trump up by 7%, 8% and 9% respectively.

This spooked the betting market and the probability of a Trump win plummeted to (currently) 57.9% Trump to 40.7% Harris.

Now you're a gambling man EP - which one looks the better bet for the win?

The markets are factoring in a Trump win too. They are predicting a rise in the US$ if he wins, but a large fall if Harris wins. To me, that tells more about who is right for the US. Remember everyone, this is the US Election.

I like my political leaders doing what is best for my country, not what is good for everyone else.

[Lullapie]

It seems like there's all kinds of shady shenanigans going on both with polling and betting markets.
There's been an explosion of 'new' polls and manipulation of betting markets because the impression must be given of 'advantage Trump' as a pre-condition to challenge election results again. It's all need to convince his base. We know that pulling off a coup is as much the strategy as winning the vote.

Despite all this, I think you will get that pleasant surprise.

And they reckon it's only the right wing, white supremacist, misogynistic, middle-aged, white males who are conspiracy theorists.