Will SM take us to promotion?

[bufordpie]

Sod the stats, we ain't going up under SM

[upthemaggies]

But you are showing SM as only on 1.24 when he is actually on 1.55. Of course after tomorrow it may only be 1.47.
28 points from 18 games. Something seems amiss here???

Maynard's record as manager of Notts County is Pld:37 W:12 D:10 L:15, that's 46 points
46 divided by 37 gives you his PPG. 1.24

[upthemaggies]

feign gobsmackedness if you like, but you know that selectively choosing stats to prove a point is way to 'massage' the message.

The only selecting going on is in your head.
If you go on wiki or wherever to look up a manager's record, it will give you a breakdown - club by club - of their WDL record from the day they arrived to the day the left. It doesn't just give you their last 18 games, or leave out all games managed before their first pre-season, it's a non-selective non-bias stat that the football world at large accepts as "a manager's record", how well he's done or how well he's doing. That's how it works.

Obviously, LW having a PPG of 2.33 in 2022/23 doesn't mean he was Pep's near equal that season. We all understand how the pyramid works, so you have to compare results at the same level. That should surely go without saying.

That's what that table is. No more, no less.

[Boomerangpie]

And my head and a few others it seems

Upthemagpies is right it is a basic straightforward and as highlighted ultimately flawed table that compares PPG on managers at this level. It is no more no less than that.

What is more important and reflective is Maynard?s PPG this season. Not the games last season as they are gone, they don?t count. We weren?t going up last season regardless. What I am far bothered about is how many PPG he is getting this season. That will determine whether we gets promotion or not

[upthemaggies]

What I am far bothered about is how many PPG he is getting this season.

Right, so have we arrived at the point where his PPG is now set in stone at 1.56, a prediction based on his performance this season alone, or is it going to end up higher or lower on May 3rd because his experience, nous or lack of, is the sum total of more than this season alone... ie based on his PPG overall.

Does making a prediction that is based on including his navigating the business end of last season hold less value than making a prediction on this season's PPG alone which is massively inflated by a 4 game winning streak at the very start of this campaign, 3 of which were against sides currently 19th or lower.

[magpie_mania]

What this thread seems to show is that you can draw many different conclusions from statistics.

Back to the original question. Will SM take us to promotion. After the first few games when we were flying in the league, I really thought he would. I have changed my mind a little, but that does not mean that I think he should go - far from it.

I am now at the place of, 'He might take us to promotion'. I am amazed at where we are in the league based on our recent results but it shows I think how wide-open this league is. But, out of the teams currently occupying the top 7 places, we have won the least and drawn the most. Just 2 of those draws turned into wins would have us in the automatic places. That's where I see the biggest problem, just falling short, and for all our possession etc not having that bit extra.

However, we simply can't imo ignore the fact that we have been missing arguably our most creative players. That bit extra would have been achieved I think with JJ, DC available.

So, I have changed from 'He will' to 'He might' (and admit there are some mitigating reasons why we have fallen short). When we get them back, and have other players available, then I don't think there are any excuses. Play-offs would be a minimum, and if we can hold on in the next few games, them automatic shouldn't be written off. Whatever we think, the table doesn't lie and we are well within reach.

[durhampie]

To get promoted you need to average around 2 points per game. As it stands we are set to Finnish around mid-table.. That is just not good enough. You can throw in all the different scenarios and excuses, but at the end of the day we are falling way short of expectations. Managers survive on success, those who dont get the sack..

[magpie_mania]

To get promoted you need to average around 2 points per game. As it stands we are set to Finnish around mid-table.. That is just not good enough.

Really? Last season Crawley were promoted having gained 1.52 points per game. We are currently on 1.55 points per game.

Fact.

[durhampie]

Did they not go up via the playoffs?

[upthemaggies]

Our PPG is 1.56 rounded up.
Based on everybody's PPG today, somebody would miss out on the play offs with 1.56.

1. Walsall - 121 __ 2.00 __ 92
2. Port Vale - 119 __ 1.94 __ 89
3. Doncaster Rov - 116 __ 1.78 __ 82
----------------------------------------------------
4. Milton Keynes - 117 __ 1.76 __ 81
5. Crewe Alex. - 117 __ 1.76 __ 81
6. Wimbledon - 114 __ 1.59 __ 73
7. Notts County - 112 __ 1.56 __ 72
---------------------------------------------------
8. Grimsby Town - 112 __ 1.56 __ 72

Win at Salford and the PPG goes up to 1.63 (+0.07)
Draw it will be 1.53 (-0.03)
Lose it will be 1.47 (-0.09)