League 2 Top Scorer 2024/25

[70YearsAPie]

Below are Bet365's current odds for the League 2 leading scorer at the end of the season. It's nice to have two players in the top four! Didzy looks like a decent bet to me.

9/4 Alassana (Notts)
10/3 Michael Cheek (Bromley)
4/1 Mathew Stevens (AFC Wimbledon)
8/1 David McGoldrick (Notts)
20/1 Will Grigg (Chesterfield)
20/1 Harry Smith (Swindon)

[slack_pie]

Is Didzy on penalties? Or Jones if fit?

[ncfcog]

Just had a quick look at L2 player xG. Jatta is actually slightly under his expected goals but it's a very small margin. Didzy has scored 1.6 more goals than expected so highlighting his finishing quality.

A couple of standouts though with Smith at Swindon scoring over 4 goals more than expected which is crazy really and Cook at Bradford nearly 3 goals more. Lowe obviously now out of the running but what a season he has had up to this point before being recalled from his loan.

Player	Team	Goals	xG	Diff +/-
N. Lowe	Walsall	15	11.95	3.05
M. Cheek	Bromley	13	12.4	0.6
A. Cook	Bradford City	12	9.08	2.92
D. McGoldrick	Notts County	12	10.38	1.62
M. Stevens	AFC Wimbledon	12	12.61	-0.61
A. Jatta	Notts County	12	12.65	-0.65
H. Smith	Swindon Town	11	6.65	4.35
A. Gilbey	Milton Keynes Dons	9	7.33	1.67
J. Matt	Walsall	9	8.22	0.78
L. Molyneux	Doncaster Rovers	8	6.03	1.97
W. Grigg	Chesterfield	8	7.09	0.91

[drillerpie]

Just had a quick look at L2 player xG. Jatta is actually slightly under his expected goals but it's a very small margin. Didzy has scored 1.6 more goals than expected so highlighting his finishing quality.

A couple of standouts though with Smith at Swindon scoring over 4 goals more than expected which is crazy really and Cook at Bradford nearly 3 goals more. Lowe obviously now out of the running but what a season he has had up to this point before being recalled from his loan.

Player	Team	Goals	xG	Diff +/-
N. Lowe	Walsall	15	11.95	3.05
M. Cheek	Bromley	13	12.4	0.6
A. Cook	Bradford City	12	9.08	2.92
D. McGoldrick	Notts County	12	10.38	1.62
M. Stevens	AFC Wimbledon	12	12.61	-0.61
A. Jatta	Notts County	12	12.65	-0.65
H. Smith	Swindon Town	11	6.65	4.35
A. Gilbey	Milton Keynes Dons	9	7.33	1.67
J. Matt	Walsall	9	8.22	0.78
L. Molyneux	Doncaster Rovers	8	6.03	1.97
W. Grigg	Chesterfield	8	7.09	0.91

Didzy outperforming xG will be down to his long range goals I'd imagine? I think he's scored 2 or 3 from outside the box when there wasn't much on.

[ncfcog]

Didzy outperforming xG will be down to his long range goals I'd imagine? I think he's scored 2 or 3 from outside the box when there wasn't much on.

Definitely

[ncfcog]

In fact 2 of those were penalties that actually increase his xG by 0.76 per penalty.

[WarsopPie]

Just had a quick look at L2 player xG. Jatta is actually slightly under his expected goals but it's a very small margin. Didzy has scored 1.6 more goals than expected so highlighting his finishing quality.

A couple of standouts though with Smith at Swindon scoring over 4 goals more than expected which is crazy really and Cook at Bradford nearly 3 goals more. Lowe obviously now out of the running but what a season he has had up to this point before being recalled from his loan.

Player	Team	Goals	xG	Diff +/-
N. Lowe	Walsall	15	11.95	3.05
M. Cheek	Bromley	13	12.4	0.6
A. Cook	Bradford City	12	9.08	2.92
D. McGoldrick	Notts County	12	10.38	1.62
M. Stevens	AFC Wimbledon	12	12.61	-0.61
A. Jatta	Notts County	12	12.65	-0.65
H. Smith	Swindon Town	11	6.65	4.35
A. Gilbey	Milton Keynes Dons	9	7.33	1.67
J. Matt	Walsall	9	8.22	0.78
L. Molyneux	Doncaster Rovers	8	6.03	1.97
W. Grigg	Chesterfield	8	7.09	0.91

Cook is quality even at his age he would of won it this season if it wasn?t for the fact he?s out for the rest of this season

[1955pie]

In fact 2 of those were penalties that actually increase his xG by 0.76 per penalty.

Ncfcog can you help please.
If penalties are 0.76, what are the weightings for other situations. eg if a man is through one on one with the keeper or say when George Abbott scored from out wide in that Peterborough FA Cup tie?
I know it won?t be as simple as that but are there tables or charts to give some indication?
Thank you.

[ncfcog]

Ncfcog can you help please.
If penalties are 0.76, what are the weightings for other situations. eg if a man is through one on one with the keeper or say when George Abbott scored from out wide in that Peterborough FA Cup tie?
I know it won?t be as simple as that but are there tables or charts to give some indication?
Thank you.

Unfortunately it's not really as simple as that. Yes, if you compare Abbott's goal at Peterborough to Didzy's second goal at Stanley there is an obvious difference in the xG value. So Abbott's goal was circa 0.02, whilst Didzy's second goal at Stanley was 0.82. Now interestingly I'd have had Didzy's first goal up in the 0.80's as he was literally on the line when he chested it in, but Wyscout have it at just 0.37. Now there is nothing 'just' about that value, it would still represent a big chance but the players position is only one part of the equation.

There are many factors involved. Header, foot shot, strong or weak foot, the assist, the second assist (in this case Abbott's cross), the players movement before making contact with the ball, defender and keeper positioning are all assessed. Additionally, there is a considerable amount of historical data available now so this is also taken into consideration by comparing to similar chances already in the data.

Then, of course you have the ludicrously clever algorithms that work it all out in a matter of seconds.

The thing to remember though is that xG is not an exact science (yet). It's a great barometer for measuring performance etc but it can differ between different data companies. Wyscout and Opta are probably the most accurate and the ones used mostly by professional clubs but FotMob for example have their own version and whilst it presents the shot xG live 'in game' you tend to find it re-evaluates it shortly after the game has finished.

I love working with xG data because despite the fact there can be discrepancies they're generally within a workable tolerance. Used correctly they help to identify trends relating to both team and player performance. The recent visualisations I shared regarding Notts managers is an example of that. You get a snapshot of something that presents an element of a player or teams game that needs some closer attention.

Notts' xG isn't the best in the league but what is good right now is that the comparison between xG and goals scored is very close. If your xG is considerably lower than goals scored it would intimate that you are heavily reliant on scoring worldies or you have had more than your fair share of luck. The question in this case is just how sustainable that is. Historically it has been proven in most cases it isn't sustainable and if those metrics start to level off you are likely to see a drop in results or goals scored.

The opposite of that would be underperforming your xG value. This would suggest you are wasteful in front of goal so you may want to dig a bit deeper into that by analysing your missed chances etc.

Finally (honest), we now also have xG on target data. This is a slightly different metric that focusses on shots on target. Basically, the likelihood of a goal from an attempt on target. I'll delve into that one another time if that's ok!

[1955pie]

Thank you Ncfcog
I will have to read it again. (and again).