Quote Originally Posted by Marat18 View Post
Being some numbers nerd, I just was thinking about prev seasons stats mentioned in top-6 points thread.

So, here some analysis of prev season.

There 4 groups of clubs based on 2023-24 table:
Top-3: MCI, ARS, LIV. Points 82 and above
BoR (Best of the Rest) from 4 to 8: AVL, TOT, CHE, NEW, MUN. Points 60-68
Mid-table. from 9 to 15: WHU, CRY, BHA, EVE, BOU, FUL, WOL. Points 46-52
Releg Battle. From 16 to 20: BRE, NFO, LUT, BUR, SHU. Points 16-39.

Against top-3 (18pts max):
AVL 10
TOT 5
CHE 4
NEW 3
MUN 2

Against BoR (24 pts max):
NEW 15 (6 pts against Villa helped a lot)
CHE 13
MUN 13
TOT 10
AVL 7

Against mid-table (42 pts max)
AVL 28
CHE 28
TOT 23
MUN 22
NEW 20 (BHA, EVE, BOU just 1 point each! total 3 out of 18)

Against Releg Battle (30 pts max)
TOT 28
AVL 23
MUN 23
NEW 22 (Luton 1 and Forest 3 points)
CHE 18

As you see we did great against our direct competition, but was bottom of all other mini-leagues.

AVL did remarkably against top-3 and thats what got them CL spot.
And Tottehnam scored 28 out of 30 against bottom-5.
Chelsea would have got top-4 finish if they didnt drop so much points against relegation teams

Also, Man City got 3 pts out of 12 against LIV and ARS (Arsenal got 8), but won the league because their record against teams from 7 to 20 was 26-1-1 - 79 points out of 84. Arsenal managed 73 and Liverpool 68
Very interesting. The numbers here reflect what I felt last season. For where we realistically want to be we need a repeat this season without losing so many points to mid to bottom sides, especially at home. You don’t mind losing to City as much as getting just a draw against Luton at home.
I’d be surprised if we took 6 points off Villa again but would like (to put it mildly) to get something from Liverpool.