OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[swaledale]

This may come as a surprise RP but, despite the anti Europeans thinking we're all totally dominated by Brussels bureaucrats, the laws in Italy and the UK differ as far as referenda are concerned. As I understand it - not completely - the result in Italy is legally binding...in the U.K. it isn't . Vive La Difference!

And it was nothing to do with the EU- the effect is only that the Italian prime Minister was an EU and Eu supporter, whereas those who voted against the proposed constitutional changes are in favour of the EU and against the eurozone and another factor is that the Italian banking system is close to collapse, it hasn't undergone the reforms that UK banks have since the financial crash and at the moment the Eu central bank is basically keeping them going, now if Italy was to withdraw from the euro, then that would be interesting, but not likely to happen for a while, indeed not much change likely until the election scheduled for 2018.

Its very simplistic for Leavers to think that these political changes echo what happened in the UK - there are a number of different factors at work here, precipitated by the 2008 financial crash, which wasn't caused by the EU by the way!!

Mind you neither were the issues which influenced the Brexit vote all down to the EU, but that doesn't stop simpletons like Tricky thinking it does or jumping up and down with glee when he thinks the "glorious revolution" is coming - mm as if political chaos in the world is going to benefit anybody - still the way Trump's tweeting, we may have WW3 sooner than was predicted!!

[Andy_Faber]

And it was nothing to do with the EU - Its very simplistic for Leavers to think that these political changes echo what happened in the UK - there are a number of different factors at work here, precipitated by the 2008 financial crash, which wasn't caused by the EU by the way!!

Mind you neither were the issues which influenced the Brexit vote all down to the EU

I disagree that its nothing to do with the EU, I think EVERYTHING happening around Europe at the moment is SOMETHING to do with the EU, but there are few places more complicated than Italy and it's tricky reading much into this result, apart from another massively pro-EU politician having clumsily fallen on his own sword. With the lack of judgement they showed, you wouldn't want Cameron and Renzi passing back to your goalie too often.

And you are VERY right that non-Brexit issues influenced the Brexit vote, in fact IMO one very big issue was the deciding factor. I notice that there's a highly publicised independent report on that general subject been issued today, the tone of which is pretty direct

[Ram59]

Well I've tried to be polite throughout but it's getting tedious. The facts simply are that the fall in the pound against the Euro reversed around the time of the High Court decision. Prior to that it had been in, more or less, continuous freefall/decline since the Referendum and if you can't recognise that there's little point in debating further. The other, more telling, points I've raised in response to Tricky I note you haven't challenged. As others have said the £/$ rate is probably of greater significance but the seismic events in the U.S. have obviously had a significant impact there so it cannot be considered to reflect the Brexit effect alone.

All I'm saying is your wrong to say that the high court decision stopped the free fall of the pound. The pounds free fall stopped on the 6th of October, a full month before the court case. It then hovered around that level with 2 minimums of the same value on the 11th of October and again the 1st of November. Those are the facts in black and white. You can't credit the court case to something that happened a month before, are you also crediting SM with the Cardiff victory then, that was only a couple of weeks before?

[swaledale]

I disagree that its nothing to do with the EU, I think EVERYTHING happening around Europe at the moment is SOMETHING to do with the EU, but there are few places more complicated than Italy and it's tricky reading much into this result, apart from another massively pro-EU politician having clumsily fallen on his own sword. With the lack of judgement they showed, you wouldn't want Cameron and Renzi passing back to your goalie too often.

And you are VERY right that non-Brexit issues influenced the Brexit vote, in fact IMO one very big issue was the deciding factor. I notice that there's a highly publicised independent report on that general subject been issued today, the tone of which is pretty direct

Thats a broad statement Andy - of course the EU has an effect, it is after all a significant political entity in the region and therefore the way it reacts to events has a bearing on the outcomes, but the point I am making is that if one believed what many people say, its the existence of the EU that has caused the issues wheres that is far from the case.

There is also a view (amplified many times by Tricky) that if the EU didn't exist, then we would not be in this situation, thats a very narrow simplistic and false view that does not take into account the positives that greater cooperation and integration amongst nations brings to a wider population, but to even suggest that one gets accused of being Junckers mouthpiece!

All systems and organisations created and run by humans are going to have flaws, I mean i don't like the political system in this country, but I think its better than China's or a few other countries I can think of.

I still have never had an answer to my question to the Brexiteers, how has the EU had a negative impact on them personally? All I get is vague abstract concepts or stereotypical incidents which are not an answer.

[roger_ramjet]

And it was nothing to do with the EU- the effect is only that the Italian prime Minister was an EU and Eu supporter, whereas those who voted against the proposed constitutional changes are in favour of the EU and against the eurozone and another factor is that the Italian banking system is close to collapse, it hasn't undergone the reforms that UK banks have since the financial crash and at the moment the Eu central bank is basically keeping them going, now if Italy was to withdraw from the euro, then that would be interesting, but not likely to happen for a while, indeed not much change likely until the election scheduled for 2018.

Its very simplistic for Leavers to think that these political changes echo what happened in the UK - there are a number of different factors at work here, precipitated by the 2008 financial crash, which wasn't caused by the EU by the way!!

Mind you neither were the issues which influenced the Brexit vote all down to the EU, but that doesn't stop simpletons like Tricky thinking it does or jumping up and down with glee when he thinks the "glorious revolution" is coming - mm as if political chaos in the world is going to benefit anybody - still the way Trump's tweeting, we may have WW3 sooner than was predicted!!

The Italian issue is interesting one - you are right that it was not an EU vote directly but nonetheless Renzi is one of the few leaders in the EU who appear to be totally committed to its future. The vote was for constitutional reform which Italy has needed for as many years as I can remember. The horseshoe parliament that they operate is a virtual guarantee of instability and short term government alliances. It has desperately been in need of reform for a long time, but Renzi appears to have been proposing too much change, and a change that would deprive the smaller parties of their ability to rock the boat by switching sides - so naturally their supporters all voted against change.

The economic concerns in Italy are also similar to the Brexit issues - economic and immigration - in Italy's case from North Africa. In Germany immigration is a growing issue for Merkel, although with typical German phlegm they realise that immigration is necessary with a declining indigenous population. In France the right Nationalism is on the rise.

The vote in Italy mirrors our referendum vote even if the issue was different: the same underlying causes are there. A pan European malaise which manifests itself in different ways, but nonetheless is there. Its no real surprise though, is it. The 4 Western European "superpowers" are all feeling squeezed by the expansion from the east and indeed the Middle East; they feel misused as cash cows to support the development of the other countries. The people do not value the concept of helping those economies to develop into bigger trading partners of the future. We live in short termist times: the now society has taken full grip.

Nationalism is on the rise across the continent and it pops up in whatever vote is called. Its not just Europe, its USA and Russia too.

Tricky may love it, Swalagram may hate it, but we cannot bury our head in the sand. Brexit may not be the biggest issue emerging in the mid 2010's - the return of widespread nationalism seems to me a far greater worry.

And, incidentally, I am sure Mangara will soon be declaring the Italian vote as being unrepresentative of the country since only 42% voted to reject the changes.

[Andy_Faber]

I still have never had an answer to my question to the Brexiteers, how has the EU had a negative impact on them personally? All I get is vague abstract concepts or stereotypical incidents which are not an answer.

I can't answer that, I voted remain

[roger_ramjet]

I can't answer that, I voted remain

Nor can I, so did I

[ramAnag]

All I'm saying is your wrong to say that the high court decision stopped the free fall of the pound. The pounds free fall stopped on the 6th of October, a full month before the court case. It then hovered around that level with 2 minimums of the same value on the 11th of October and again the 1st of November. Those are the facts in black and white. You can't credit the court case to something that happened a month before, are you also crediting SM with the Cardiff victory then, that was only a couple of weeks before?

So you accept that the pound fell to a low on the 11th October which was repeated on the 1st November and we know that the High Court decision was announced less than two days later but you think the fact that since that decision the pound has stoppped falling and continued to rise is entirely coincidental. Really?

Agree with Roger...the rise of 'nationalism' around the World is my greatest concern at present but it cannot be disassociated from the Brexit vote as, imo, the Brexit reaction was very much a result of misplaced nationalism, xenophobia - oops Ram59 won't like that bit - and jingoism.

As regards the 42% jibe RR...basically it's Italy, I place I'm very fond of but which has nothing to do with me really. Bottom line is, I don't believe in referenda because ultimately I don't believe that people are sufficiently well equipped and informed to make such complex decisions but if we have to have them I honestly believe a winning margin must equate to more than 50% of the electorate.

P.S. How come Andy and Roger aren't 'sticking to their guns'. You don't usually give in so readily?

[swaledale]

I neither love Brexit or love the EU, i do recognise that large swathes of the population feel that for a number of different reasons they aren't getting a fair deal and unfortunately many politicians haven't recognised this until recently, hence the Tory focus on the so called JAMS, which for me is patronising bull****, ironically the one leader who does recognise inate unfairness is Corbyn, he is also a real politician who does not do much "spin". Unfortunately his leadership qualities are not obvious and for all people want someone to consider them, they still prefer the authoritarian approach!

As for burying ones head in the sand, I do the opposite, but as is amply demonstrated on here many like the simplistic short term answers and fail to see that ultimately they will be no better off and most likely worse off as a result.

[Andy_Faber]

P.S. How come Andy and Roger aren't 'sticking to their guns'. You don't usually give in so readily?

Sorry I must have missed 60 minutes (now THERE'S a phrase! Who said it?)