Unless Slovakia beat England at Wembley then it's a fairly simple situation of us having to win our three games to get second. If we do win our three games and Slovakia don't beat England then we'll be second. If we slip up anywhere then we have more or less no chance.
There's a remote possibility we could go through with two wins and a draw against Slovenia, but it probably requires us smashing Slovakia at Hampden to make up for our poor goal difference.