OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[MadAmster]

The problem with America, well one of them anyway, is the whole religion thing. You could be the mostr saintly of people, doing good for folks, both individually and collectively and have 94% of the populace behind you. Then you run for President and announce that you don't believe in God or organised religion. You would be unlikely to get 20% of the vote come election day.

I saw a piece on Dutch TV this week from one of the bible belt States. They are, to a man, and to a woman, on Trump's side. The footage was taken at a church function. They all recognise Trump's faults. That he is ***ist, mysogynistic, racist and all sorts of other things. Those things don't matter though because ........ he is a staunch believer in God, he is anti abortion and anti-LGBT and any other letter I may have missed plus all the other things they believe are wrong and evil because the Bible tells them so.

I have been of the opinion that he has no chance in 2020. This piece on TV has got me wavering on that, more than just a little. Four more years of Trump would, IMO, be very dangerous for the rest of the world.

[ramAnag]

You're getting a bit desperate there RA, 'all decent folk will despair of trump'? You need to spend more time in the company of some Americans, I can summarise my very 'decent' NC buddies' opinion is that as a man he's odious, but as a president he's recognised that USA isn't just two coastlines with a non-man's land attached.

Those who refer to the BBC being biased are paranoid? I'm a critic and a supporter of the Beeb, and I'm far from paranoid, but I'll send you that PM I promised that adds a bit of unofficial science to one area (not Brexit as it happens) I've banged on about. Meanwhile as I write this Andrew Neil is chairing a 'how do we get rid of Trump' session on BBC1

I won't take issue with your Brexit coment because I notice The Kraken has been awakened but I think in general you generalise too much, you're insulting people who think deeply about complex issues

With respect Andy, I’m not being insulting to anyone...and certainly not to anyone who doesn’t deserve it.
I chose my words carefully. Most sensible folk will ‘question the wisdom’ of Brexit because it is a leap into the unknown. Although personally I believe we are much better in than out I also recognise that there are issues with the EU however ‘questioning the wisdom’ of suddenly abandoning access to such a market and distancing ourselves from our allies and neighbours is something that it is surely sensible to question.
As far as Trump is concerned, ‘decent folk will despair’ of having a ***ist, racist, misogynistic bully in charge of the World’s most powerful nation. I’ve spent the best part of three months in different parts of the U.S. this year and some of the footage of Trump I’ve seen is nothing less than shocking.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him re-elected for a second term partly because there is a climate of selfishness across the World and the USA at present and partly because no viable Democrat seems willng to take the risk of challenging Trump this time round.
He is a capable politician who recognises how easy it is to ‘catch’ the vote of the unquestioning with the tiniest grain of truth. Beyond that, in moral and ethical terms, the man is a moron and that should be a source of despair amongst all folk who try and uphold values of decency and compassion.
As we’ve established before I don’t share your fears about the BBC. To question Brexit and expose Trump, to produce documentaries investigating everything from tax fraud to homelessness and NHS underfunding to *****philia is not ‘left wing’...it is simply a responsible broadcasting organisation indulging in contemporary social commentary...the use of modern media to do exactly what the likes of Dickens and Lloyd George would have done in years gone by.

[MadAmster]

‘questioning the wisdom’ of suddenly abandoning access to such a market and distancing ourselves from our allies and neighbours is something that it is surely sensible to question.

Are we abandoning it though rA? I agree, both imports and exports will be more expensive due to either what is agreed in any deal or by the WTO tariffs in the case of a no deal but I am 100% certain we will still sell to EU countries and also buy from them.

Possibly not as much as we currently do but we are not turning our backs. If we did the German/French/Italian/Spanish car industries would suffer to an extent they cannot afford. The same is true of the wine industry. I think it eminently feasible that some, or even all, car manufacturers will lower their price to the dealers in order to compensate for some, if not all, of the higher import tariff. This is not some far fetched idea dreamt up by a crazy rodent either. There is history on this. The Dutch government levy a tax on all motor vehicles sold new (does not apply to 2nd hand vehicles). It is called BPM and is there for no other reason than to collect revenue. No other country has this tax. It is 20% of the price. It is also tax on tax. 21% VAT (BTW in Dutch) on cars in NL. I don't know which tax, BTW or BPM, is levied first but the other one is levied on price plus the other tax.This would make, for instance, a BMW, Merc or VW 20% more expensive in NL than in any other EU country. The new prices are, give or take a Euro or two, the same here as in Germany etc. This is because the manufacturers pass the cars on the NL dealerships for a lower price than they do to dealers elsewhere. It would not surprise me to see a similar "deal" on cars post Brexit (if that ever happens and I am still not convinced that it will). You also pay BPM on any new or second hand cars you import into NL, based on the NEW price of the vehicle.

People on both sides of the divide are still exaggerating the effects, IMO, and they base those exaggerations on what? Apart from some sketchy "facts" we don't know the specifics of the deal. We don't have the full Monty on what no deal would mean either, other than prices will rise by some, all, or in some cases none, of the % differences in tariffs pre and post Brexit.

There is still an awful lot of mileage in this Brexit lark. It aint over yet.

[ramAnag]

Are we abandoning it though rA? I agree, both imports and exports will be more expensive due to either what is agreed in any deal or by the WTO tariffs in the case of a no deal but I am 100% certain we will still sell to EU countries and also buy from them.

Possibly not as much as we currently do but we are not turning our backs. If we did the German/French/Italian/Spanish car industries would suffer to an extent they cannot afford. The same is true of the wine industry. I think it eminently feasible that some, or even all, car manufacturers will lower their price to the dealers in order to compensate for some, if not all, of the higher import tariff. This is not some far fetched idea dreamt up by a crazy rodent either. There is history on this. The Dutch government levy a tax on all motor vehicles sold new (does not apply to 2nd hand vehicles). It is called BPM and is there for no other reason than to collect revenue. No other country has this tax. It is 20% of the price. It is also tax on tax. 21% VAT (BTW in Dutch) on cars in NL. I don't know which tax, BTW or BPM, is levied first but the other one is levied on price plus the other tax.This would make, for instance, a BMW, Merc or VW 20% more expensive in NL than in any other EU country. The new prices are, give or take a Euro or two, the same here as in Germany etc. This is because the manufacturers pass the cars on the NL dealerships for a lower price than they do to dealers elsewhere. It would not surprise me to see a similar "deal" on cars post Brexit (if that ever happens and I am still not convinced that it will). You also pay BPM on any new or second hand cars you import into NL, based on the NEW price of the vehicle.

People on both sides of the divide are still exaggerating the effects, IMO, and they base those exaggerations on what? Apart from some sketchy "facts" we don't know the specifics of the deal. We don't have the full Monty on what no deal would mean either, other than prices will rise by some, all, or in some cases none, of the % differences in tariffs pre and post Brexit.

There is still an awful lot of mileage in this Brexit lark. It aint over yet.

I obviously bow to your superior knowledge of the Dutch taxation system, ‘Amster.
We do however appear to be making our current very easy access to the vast EU trading market infinitely more difficult. We do, imo, appear to be alienating ourselves in relation to our European neighbours and the fact that, nearly thirty months on from the Referendum, the details are still unknown - or in your own words...’sketchy’ - speaks volumes to me about how ridiculous the whole process has been.

[MadAmster]

I obviously bow to your superior knowledge of the Dutch taxation system, ‘Amster.
We do however appear to be making our current very easy access to the vast EU trading market infinitely more difficult. We do, imo, appear to be alienating ourselves in relation to our European neighbours and the fact that, nearly thirty months on from the Referendum, the details are still unknown - or in your own words...’sketchy’ - speaks volumes to me about how ridiculous the whole process has been.

Common ground for everyone there I believe rA. Whether you are/were a steadfast Leaver or a committed Remainer (or even 1 of the 12M who couldn't be arsed to vote), if we go on the premise, for the sake of argument, that Leave won the day under the rules in place at the time and that Cameron kept his word to go whichever way the vote went, the whole process since then has been, IMO, worse than ridiculous. Something everybody, whatever their persuasion, can agree with. Closer to pathetic and, if it wasn't such a serious matter, pretty close to being named comedy of the century. I mean, it took Mayhem et al 2 years to come up with what they wanted out of the deal.

As for the Dutch BPM Tax, I hope you understood my ramblings and can see that a similar reaction from German car manufacturers would be beneficial to both them and the UK car market and is not so far fetched as it might seem had I not explained the whys and wherefores of BPM and drawn a possible parallel with post Brexit prices.

[ramAnag]

Common ground for everyone there I believe rA. Whether you are/were a steadfast Leaver or a committed Remainer (or even 1 of the 12M who couldn't be arsed to vote), if we go on the premise, for the sake of argument, that Leave won the day under the rules in place at the time and that Cameron kept his word to go whichever way the vote went, the whole process since then has been, IMO, worse than ridiculous. Something everybody, whatever their persuasion, can agree with. Closer to pathetic and, if it wasn't such a serious matter, pretty close to being named comedy of the century. I mean, it took Mayhem et al 2 years to come up with what they wanted out of the deal.

As for the Dutch BPM Tax, I hope you understood my ramblings and can see that a similar reaction from German car manufacturers would be beneficial to both them and the UK car market and is not so far fetched as it might seem had I not explained the whys and wherefores of BPM and drawn a possible parallel with post Brexit prices.

Not so sure about the ‘common ground for everyone there’, MA. Many ‘leavers’ still want to plough on regardless and even some otherwise eminently sensible folk - eg Andy who actually voted ‘Remain’ - seem to just want to get on with it whatever the cost.
My point was...if almost two and a half years on we still don’t know the conditions and implications of Brexit, what the hell was the so well informed great British public voting on back in June 2016?

[MadAmster]

rA, even the staunchest of staunch leavers will be thinking that the powers that be have made a right royal cock up of things in the past2 and a bit years. That is, IMO, common ground.

[swaledale]

You're getting a bit desperate there RA, 'all decent folk will despair of trump'? You need to spend more time in the company of some Americans, I can summarise my very 'decent' NC buddies' opinion is that as a man he's odious, but as a president he's recognised that USA isn't just two coastlines with a non-man's land attached.

Those who refer to the BBC being biased are paranoid? I'm a critic and a supporter of the Beeb, and I'm far from paranoid, but I'll send you that PM I promised that adds a bit of unofficial science to one area (not Brexit as it happens) I've banged on about. Meanwhile as I write this Andrew Neil is chairing a 'how do we get rid of Trump' session on BBC1

I won't take issue with your Brexit coment because I notice The Kraken has been awakened but I think in general you generalise too much, you're insulting people who think deeply about complex issues

Indeed just as Hitler recognised that firm action needed to be taken to cure Germanys economic ills and right the "wrongs" of WW!!

Lets be clear all decent intelligent and sane thinking people despise Trump - those that say well he is an odious man but hey he gets things done that we think ought to be done, are dangerous people who would go along with a proposition which was yes these Christian zealots are bigoted, racist, ***ist, spew out a lot of crap, undertake the odd tax fraud but by gum they have turned the country's economy around! Mm so exactly where do you draw the line between - basically he is a lying criminal dangerous scumbag who uses peoples base fears to support his agenda, but he is an Ok guy cos he does some good things? Again I believe Hitler built good motorways, re*****ised the economy and made Germany feel good about itself, just a shame a few million people had to die really.

[swaledale]

Are we abandoning it though rA? I agree, both imports and exports will be more expensive due to either what is agreed in any deal or by the WTO tariffs in the case of a no deal but I am 100% certain we will still sell to EU countries and also buy from them.

Possibly not as much as we currently do but we are not turning our backs. If we did the German/French/Italian/Spanish car industries would suffer to an extent they cannot afford. The same is true of the wine industry. I think it eminently feasible that some, or even all, car manufacturers will lower their price to the dealers in order to compensate for some, if not all, of the higher import tariff. This is not some far fetched idea dreamt up by a crazy rodent either. There is history on this. The Dutch government levy a tax on all motor vehicles sold new (does not apply to 2nd hand vehicles). It is called BPM and is there for no other reason than to collect revenue. No other country has this tax. It is 20% of the price. It is also tax on tax. 21% VAT (BTW in Dutch) on cars in NL. I don't know which tax, BTW or BPM, is levied first but the other one is levied on price plus the other tax.This would make, for instance, a BMW, Merc or VW 20% more expensive in NL than in any other EU country. The new prices are, give or take a Euro or two, the same here as in Germany etc. This is because the manufacturers pass the cars on the NL dealerships for a lower price than they do to dealers elsewhere. It would not surprise me to see a similar "deal" on cars post Brexit (if that ever happens and I am still not convinced that it will). You also pay BPM on any new or second hand cars you import into NL, based on the NEW price of the vehicle.

People on both sides of the divide are still exaggerating the effects, IMO, and they base those exaggerations on what? Apart from some sketchy "facts" we don't know the specifics of the deal. We don't have the full Monty on what no deal would mean either, other than prices will rise by some, all, or in some cases none, of the % differences in tariffs pre and post Brexit.

There is still an awful lot of mileage in this Brexit lark. It aint over yet.

Well the effects of Brexit are already being felt and we are still in the EU! If we dont have access to the single market and remain in the customs union then the effects are known and are very clear - if you can't understand that then simple economics is beyond you!

If you cannot see what the leading Brexiteers are looking for and how it benefits them but not you or anyone who isn't wealthy then again it shows a level of ignorance that is truly astounding!

Now the benefits of leaving the EU are - blue passports, having control over our own laws (I'm struggling to think of laws passed by the EU which the UK has adopted that we would not have wanted but no doubt there is the odd one), we will be isolated and not part of a stronger economic trading block, we will be less attractive to foreign investment, thousands of jobs will go elsewhere, which is good because we wont have any workers anyway and we will have a low wage low regulation economy which certainly wont be a step forward but a step back to the dark ages - but the hedge fund managers and rip off merchants will make even more money at our expense.

[MadAmster]

We will have access to the single market, probably at WTO tariffs. Read my explanation of what the German and other car manufacturers do with their exports to NL. They lower the cost to the dealer so that the 20% BPM tax doesn't make cars 20% dearer in NL than elsewhere in the EU. I think they will do similar with exports to the UK post Brexit. Other industries might follow suit. So, not pie in the sky "wishes", but thoughts based on fact.

That is one piece of "simple economics" that I have shown I do understand.