"I can give you lots of reasons why it is awful for trade."
I bow to your greater knowledge on the ease, or otherwise, of trading inside the single market and customs union 59. It's self evident that there will be difficulties initially, but only around 10% of UK businesses export to the EU, whereas 100% of them have to abide by EU laws, regulations and red tape.
This is the view of financial journalist Matthew Lynn on our prospects after Brexit.
"Even with the fevered level of the debate, it is still only the EU, and it matters far less to the economy than the ideologically driven warriors on either side of the debate seem to imagine. There are plenty of comparisons being made to 1940 or other moments of national uncertainty. OK, it is true that it is equally impossible to guess what happens next. And yet, in reality the decision itself is not nearly as important as it is made out to be. Hardcore Remainers and Leavers both act as if remaining inside the European Union, or leaving it, were crucial for the economy.
Actually, it is fairly marginal and it doesn’t make a huge amount of difference whether we are in or out. Less and less of our trade is with the rest of Europe with every year that passes, and under World Trade Organisation rules tariffs are very modest anyway.
In the medium term, growth is determined by factors such as demographics, productivity, tax competitiveness, rates of innovation and entrepreneurship, and so on. Membership of a not particularly successful trade bloc matters a bit, but would struggle to make any reasonable list of the top 10 factors determining our future prosperity.
The British economy is slowing down a little, but then so is the rest of Europe, and we are still doing better than Germany. Despite Brexit, it looks as if we will probably be the fastest growing major European economy next year. Employment is at record levels, investment is still pouring into the country, output it still expanding and entrepreneurship is hitting record levels. It isn’t fantastic, but then very few developed economies are growing very quickly. There may be a few more months of political turmoil. But the economy will sail through it. Eventually the FTSE and sterling will recover – even if it doesn’t look very likely through most of this week."



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