Originally Posted by
KerrAvon
What interesting and relevant questions Roly.
The position is this:
Parliament set a hard Brexit date of 29th March (see section 20(2) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018) and also authorised the government to trigger Article 50, which sees us exit on that date.
The cumulative effect of that is that the default position - and the only position that does not require the express approval of Parliament - is a no deal exit on 29th March.
Assuming that Parliament continues to block the May deal and ‘directs’ the government to seek an extension to Article 50, the ball moves into the EU’s court, as it would require the unanimous approval of the remaining 27 EU states to allow such an extension. If just one EU country says no, then extension doesn’t happen and the options would be for Parliament to either agree a deal in advance of 29th March or for us to leave on that date with no deal. The third option would be for the UK to unliterally revoke its Article 50 notification and remain in the EU, which, given the outcome of the Supreme Court case brought by Gina Miller, would require primary legislation which I don’t think the government has any intention of introducing (and which probably wouldn’t be passed, in any event).
There are no guarantees that the EU would approve an extension to Article 50 – the mood towards the UK in Brussels is not a particularly benign one at the moment. The countries that do a lot of trade with us and fish in our waters would be keen to extend, but there are countries that don’t have much of a relationship with us. In practice, Merkel might well whip those countries into line, however. It also has to be borne in mind that it would suit the EU for the UK to stay and the continued uncertainty that an extension would bring might also benefit them as it would probably result in companies switching investment to them and away from the UK.
A short extension is probably necessary now, given the raft of legislation that would be needed to support leaving with a deal, but a substantial extension simply kicks the current can down the road in a big way.