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He was going to lose some support, whichever side of the fence he decided to get down on. Last Thursday demonstrated that staying on the fence was damaging too.
I agree with your analysis; opting to support a further referendum is probably the least damaging course of action. It's also probably the only practical one given the position adopted by the party at last year's conference.
It's unlikely that he or anyone else will engineer a parliamentary vote on a further referendum without the support of the government business managers though.