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Thread: O/T:- Are we over-reacting to COVD19?

  1. #151
    UK death toll now up to 35 and confirmed cases at nearly 1,400, it's definitely escalating.

  2. #152
    Quote Originally Posted by BigFatPie View Post
    Interesting exchanges, but Jackal thinks Guido Fawkes is a trusted source and that it’s ok for politicians to lie in referendum and election campaigns, so I would take his protestations about the meeja with a barrowful of salt.

    His ongoing determination to play down the current health emergency is odd to say the least.
    Perhaps you should refer to some of your political soulmates at The New Statesman

    “why do BBC newsreaders refer, as each day’s coronavirus infection figures are announced, to a “jump” in cases? Not an “increase” but a “jump”, passing, as my Oxford English Dictionary puts it, “abruptly from one… state… to another, omitting intermediate stages”.

    “The progression implies that we are most likely at the beginning of an epidemic. But we aren’t there yet. The BBC, if it must use alarming words – no doubt it is keeping “rocket” in reserve – should save them for later stages “

    The media use of hyperbole has been appalling, and turned what should be deep, and genuine concern, into bog roll looting panic

  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Notsohumblepie View Post
    Perhaps you should refer to some of your political soulmates at The New Statesman

    “why do BBC newsreaders refer, as each day’s coronavirus infection figures are announced, to a “jump” in cases? Not an “increase” but a “jump”, passing, as my Oxford English Dictionary puts it, “abruptly from one… state… to another, omitting intermediate stages”.

    “The progression implies that we are most likely at the beginning of an epidemic. But we aren’t there yet. The BBC, if it must use alarming words – no doubt it is keeping “rocket” in reserve – should save them for later stages “

    The media use of hyperbole has been appalling, and turned what should be deep, and genuine concern, into bog roll looting panic
    Latest BBC update;

    Posted at 16:0416:04
    BREAKING
    UK death toll rises to 35
    Four**** more people have died from the coronavirus in the UK, raising the death toll to 35, the UK's health department says.

    There have been a total of 1,372 positive tests for coronavirus in the UK as of Sunday, up from 1,140 on Saturday, the department added.

    I’m no fan of the BBC news department, but I can’t see any hyperbole there. Moaning about media ‘hyperbole’ in what even our idiot PM says is the biggest health crisis in a generation seems to be getting your priorities wrong.

  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackal2 View Post
    I would say that that the 'sensible precautions' are to follow the advice given by the Chief Medical Officer and DHSC Chief Scientific Adviser who is certainly more qualified than me and I suspect more qualified than you to give guidance. He has been advocating phased approach, but with extra precautions for those groups who are most vulnerable.

    You seem to have dodged the point that by putting generally fit, well and younger folk into an excessive level of isolation, you only delay the spike and potentially cause an even bigger one down the line, because a degree of exposure to threats is required to keep our immune systems active and in a state of readiness for something like this.



    My statistics weren't misleading. I compared the number of deaths against the total population whereas you compared the number of deaths amongst those known to have contracted COVID-19, which is an unverified figure anyway. It's simply a case of which context you wish to use. Talking of context...

    On average in Italy every year there are around 4,000 suicides amongst a population of circa 60 million. The current Coronavirus death toll in Italy is around 1,440 which in terms of the number of infections is high and the toll could reach similar proportions to the suicide rate this year if not more, but COVID-19 will be very time limited in its impact, whereas the suicide rate has been fairly constant for at least two decades. Plus, where Coronavirus is known to be most dangerous to people who are old or have underlying health conditions, mental health issues have a wider effect across all ages.

    The media are obsessed with COVID-19 because it is a new phenomenon that gives them 'breaking' stories and new figures every day and it is not 'routine'. Meanwhile, mental health issues which will cause the death of many more people, consistently year after year, barely get mentioned unless someone famous happens to end their lives, or an anonymous person's suicide is especially dramatic.

    The media are not motivated by the 'public interest'. They are motivated by selling their products, and to do so they seek the kind of originality and drama that COVID-19 will provide globally for a period of time. Meanwhile 800,000 people across the world kill themselves each year and most go completely unnoticed, even though this is a much bigger, longer running, permanent 'story'. It just doesn't shift newspapers or attract viewers the same way.
    You make the common misconception of identifying an entity called 'the media' and proceed to endow all agents, (newspapers, magazines, TV, radio) with the same characteristics. The meeja is many-armed many-eyed and has a multiplicity of owners.
    You also contradict your own logic. Why shouldn't 'suicide' sell stories - full of drama and back story, the only asterisk is the danger of treading into a minefield of personal data. If you really think COVID-19 sells papers, you are very mistaken. Most people get their fill of info on COVID-29 off the broadcasting media. Now that sport is becalmed in the doldrums, watch the fall off in readers of the red tops.

  5. #155
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    When this is all over and the dust has settled, the first sign of a new strain of flu will presumably see every country back in lock-down once again, just in case.

  6. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by drillerpie View Post
    I certainly listen to him, just as I listen to many other experts in the field who are questioning the different response compared to in other countries. An important part of science is peer review and consensus, so when the health officials in one country take a radically different course of action to most other countries, I think it's wise to consider other points of view.
    No sh*t? I'm sure that's what our CMO is doing all the time and I've got no reason to think his qualifications and judgement are notably inferior/superior to others elsewhere. As long as the Government follows his advice rather than reacting to the media, I think that's the safest bet.

    Quote Originally Posted by drillerpie View Post
    I didn't dodge it, I answered that delaying the spike is a good thing as it gives time to prepare. Why would you have a bigger spike down the line? The number of potential infections is the same, but you would have had more time to procure equipment, train staff, build specialised hospitals etc.
    Actually, spreading and flattening the spike is the best outcome so we don't have to build excessive additional capacity, hence the phased approach. As I've said previously, if you over-quarantine people whose immune systems can successfully fight COVID-19 anyway, you risk suppressing those systems to a point where some become less 'ready' than they would otherwise have been, potentially to greater detrimental effect.

    Quote Originally Posted by drillerpie View Post
    You've cleared up your own point. The suicide rate is stable, while deaths from coronavirus multiply exponentially. When you posted your misleading statistics, Italy had had two deaths in the space of a few days.
    So the public interest is best served by overplaying an illness that kills a relatively small number of people quickly and then disappears, whilst ignoring one that kills a relatively large number of people more slowly and continues? Using that logic, if Notts County win their next game 10-0 then I don't care if they lose the next 10 games after that.

    Quote Originally Posted by drillerpie View Post
    Now N.Italy has been under lockdown for a week and they're still getting about 200 deaths per day. If they hadn't chosen lockdown the health service wouldn't have been able to continue functioning. That is why Coronavirus is receiving more government attention than suicides do and I think it's hard to argue with that.
    I never did argue with that. My point was about the media not the Government. Of course Coronavirus will be the Government's priority for the next few months while the virus is active, and so it should be, but this does not excuse the media from overplaying the threat and scaring people into panic buying industrial quantities of toilet rolls!

    Quote Originally Posted by drillerpie View Post
    Apart from the fact that I don't think you can tar all of the media with the same brush, because some newspapers dedicate more space than others to mental health issues, I think your obsession with the media and their motives is clouding your judgement.
    I also think you are failing to distinguish between what the media reports because it is relevant, like coronavirus, what is not relevant but is in the news purely because it sells, like celebrity gossip and so on, and things that should be in the news but aren't, like provision of mental health professionals.
    Just because suicide is under reported, doesn't mean coronavirus is being driven by media hype.
    Literally as I write, the number of COVID-19 cases recorded worldwide is 163,332 from which there have been 6,086 deaths against a world population of around 7.8 billion people. The effect of Coronavirus on the world population is and will be miniscule and temporary. Suicide sees 800,000 die each year which is still a small number but ongoing. The level of fear being created around Coronavirus by the media is demonstrably, ridiculously excessive.

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackal2 View Post
    No sh*t? I'm sure that's what our CMO is doing all the time and I've got no reason to think his qualifications and judgement are notably inferior/superior to others elsewhere. As long as the Government follows his advice rather than reacting to the media, I think that's the safest bet.


    Actually, spreading and flattening the spike is the best outcome so we don't have to build excessive additional capacity, hence the phased approach. As I've said previously, if you over-quarantine people whose immune systems can successfully fight COVID-19 anyway, you risk suppressing those systems to a point where some become less 'ready' than they would otherwise have been, potentially to greater detrimental effect.


    So the public interest is best served by overplaying an illness that kills a relatively small number of people quickly and then disappears, whilst ignoring one that kills a relatively large number of people more slowly and continues? Using that logic, if Notts County win their next game 10-0 then I don't care if they lose the next 10 games after that.


    I never did argue with that. My point was about the media not the Government. Of course Coronavirus will be the Government's priority for the next few months while the virus is active, and so it should be, but this does not excuse the media from overplaying the threat and scaring people into panic buying industrial quantities of toilet rolls!



    Literally as I write, the number of COVID-19 cases recorded worldwide is 163,332 from which there have been 6,086 deaths against a world population of around 7.8 billion people. The effect of Coronavirus on the world population is and will be miniscule and temporary. Suicide sees 800,000 die each year which is still a small number but ongoing. The level of fear being created around Coronavirus by the media is demonstrably, ridiculously excessive.
    I don't care about the media. Why are you obsessed with the media? Do you think the Chinese government's reaction was dictated by pressure from the media? Bear in mind the Chinese government and the Chinese media are one and the same. Please address this gaping logical crevice in your argument before writing anything else about the media.

    Your posts are so full of contradictions it's getting hard to debate with you. You've just written that you are not arguing a point when in the previous paragraph you tried to argue precisely that point.

    I'm running out of ways to explain this to you, but I'll try one more.

    350 deaths in Italy today, up from 200 yesterday. Almost a 100% increase in a country where the vast majority of people are at home 24/7. I hope the penny drops soon.

  8. #158
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    Funny about the ‘media’ using too scary words when there is this situation regarding ICU beds;

    Critical Care Beds/100,000 population

    Germany 29.2
    France 11.6
    Italy 11.2
    Latvia 9.7
    UK 6.6

    I’m not surprised people who don’t like evidence based policy want to pretend the current situation is BAU. It will demonstrably and finally prove they are wrong about pretty much everything.

  9. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigFatPie View Post
    Funny about the ‘media’ using too scary words when there is this situation regarding ICU beds;

    Critical Care Beds/100,000 population

    Germany 29.2
    France 11.6
    Italy 11.2
    Latvia 9.7
    UK 6.6

    I’m not surprised people who don’t like evidence based policy want to pretend the current situation is BAU. It will demonstrably and finally prove they are wrong about pretty much everything.
    I’m sure you didn’t just cherry pick the countries you put here BFP because that would devalue your point wouldn’t it!

  10. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by forwardmagpie View Post
    I’m sure you didn’t just cherry pick the countries you put here BFP because that would devalue your point wouldn’t it!
    If you’ve got figures that don’t suggest our ICU capacity is completely sh!t in comparison with other high income countries feel free to put them up.

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