O/T:- Are we over-reacting to COVD19?

[BigFatPie]

In this situation, Corbyn would have been battling against the media as well as the virus, he wouldn't have stood a chance because the public and businesses wouldn't have been encouraged, or worse been actively discouraged, to comply with the governments advice until it was too late. I can see the Sun headlines now, "Corbyn-19 wants to close our pubs" with his face superimposed onto a graphic of the virus.

100% correct.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

Agree with most of the above. While Boris has followed the medical advice, asking rather nicely is not the same as ordering people to follow recommendations or else. Seems he's done that now, ought to have been done a week or so ago.

Last Monday in the UK there was officially 1,153 cases and 55 deaths. Today officially there are 6,650 cases and 335 deaths.

Putting that in football average home attendances as a context it’s gone from being on a par with 22nd placed Dover Athletic of the National League and is now on a par with 3rd place Swindon Town of League Two and 14th placed Coventry City of League One.

That’s a massive increase in 7 days. The number of total deaths today are as many as some football league clubs take to away games.

If we look at Italy who are essentially two weeks in front of us then in another week it could be around 21,157 cases with 1,441 deaths.

In football average home attendance context you are up into the championship at 9th placed Bristol City. The total number of deaths is the equivalent of an entire away support of a good team well.

That’s why it’s got to be slowed down quickly. People who have disobeyed advice just don’t seem to realise how quickly it spreads.

[drillerpie]

In this situation, Corbyn would have been battling against the media as well as the virus, he wouldn't have stood a chance because the public and businesses wouldn't have been encouraged, or worse been actively discouraged, to comply with the governments advice until it was too late. I can see the Sun headlines now, "Corbyn-19 wants to close our pubs" with his face superimposed onto a graphic of the virus.

Totally agree.

[drillerpie]

That’s why it’s got to be slowed down quickly. People who have disobeyed advice just don’t seem to realise how quickly it spreads.

I read an article other day about people finding it difficult to understand the danger posed by the virus because they don't understand exponential growth. It gave the example of a ancient tale about a foolish ruler who agreed to give one grain of rice on one square of a chess board, two on the next, and agreed to double it for each of the 62 squares left on the chess board. Needless to say the final amount of rice bankrupted him.

I think I heard the CMO say that the figures for COVID19 double roughly every 5 days. That doesn't mean much in the beginning - 2 deaths on Monday becomes 4 deaths on Friday - hardly a national emergency.

But think of the Italian figures before the lockdown started to kick in. 800 deaths per day. Without a full lockdown you'd be looking at that doubling twice every ten days, so in 20 days (3 weeks) you've got 12,000 deaths per DAY to deal with. Time really is of the essence in these cases and a few days here or there can make a massive difference.

[drillerpie]

Maybe need to dig out my chainsaw protective gear and sanding masks.

Do it, seriously! It might seem weird now but in a few weeks it'll be perfectly normal, and you'll be able to look back and reflect on how responsible a citizen you were when you put your mask on to go to the supermarket before it was mainstream!

[drillerpie]

I hope and pray that the terrible scenes in Italy start to reduce and eventually end 🤞🤞🙏🙏

Thanks Forward and fingers crossed for the UK too.

[Old_pie]

I read an article other day about people finding it difficult to understand the danger posed by the virus because they don't understand exponential growth. It gave the example of a ancient tale about a foolish ruler who agreed to give one grain of rice on one square of a chess board, two on the next, and agreed to double it for each of the 62 squares left on the chess board. Needless to say the final amount of rice bankrupted him.

The inverse is happening to my investments. Halving every week. And apart from basic state that's my retirement pot If I survive the virus I'll starve to death anyway.

[frenchmagpie]

Just spoke to my brother in Devon. He was at a meeting last Thursday with a chap who had been to Cheltenham races. This chap who is 30 is now in hospital coughing up blood and a temperature of 39.4C. The ward is overflowing. He also spoke to a local crematorium manager who has plans in place for 3,500 deaths in the area, population 270,000. Scaled up over UK that is 900,000.
Essential now that the lockdown is followed. We've done it here for a week and it is not so bad.

[upthemaggies]

If Covid had the same mortality rate as SARS-1 and affected younger people in the same way. it doesn't bear thinking about.

SARS-1 didn't carry the same 'load' when people sneezed, coughed or breathed out and they couldn't infect other people until after they had symptoms. The biggest problem with Covid is how fast it spreads, faster than flu.

I'd be interested to know if there is a correlation between how fast a corona can spread and its' mortality rate. Would it be possible to have a fast spreading corona variant that kills a lot more people? A high load implies that it concentrates less deeply within the lungs, so hopefully not.

[Lullapie]

Read this from the chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh.

A damning analysis of how the Government has fcuked this up. It's dithering and negligence will lead to thousands and thousands of extra deaths. This is what you get when you vote for politicians that care nothing for ordinary people.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...art-squandered

From a totally unbiased source.