O/T:- Are we over-reacting to COVD19?

[drillerpie]

I was curious as to whether any/many more people are dying per week now than in any normal year and found this information:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nglandandwales

There is a spreadsheet and for instance it shows for:
Months 06-Mar-20 13-Mar-20 20-Mar-20
Deaths 10,895 11,019 10,645
Previous* 11,498 11,205 10,573

*=previous 5 years average

Obviously we have yet to see how the weeks ahead pan out but it would put it all in a better perspective if the increase in normal death rate (if any) was reported in the news.

In the notes at the bottom it says it's counting when the deaths were registered, not when the people died.

[Old_pie]

In the notes at the bottom it says it's counting when the deaths were registered, not when the people died.

More on that here:

https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...-19-death-toll

Where's NCFCOG when you need him?

[drillerpie]

More on that here:

https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...-19-death-toll

Where's NCFCOG when you need him?

Yeah ncfcog and UTM both seem to be fair minded and switched on people, I'd be happy to trust them with interpretation of stats.

[drillerpie]

Just on a general note I'd be wary of judging the severity of Covid by deaths anyway, especially in the early stage of the outbreak.

The number of people who are not particularly old (say 40+), who don't have pre-existing medical conditions, who don't end up dead, but do have to spend two weeks hooked up to a ventilator in intensive care is very high. Much higher than flu. This kind of explains why the world has shut down and countries are building massive field hospitals as fast as they can.

[Old_pie]

Just on a general note I'd be wary of judging the severity of Covid by deaths anyway, especially in the early stage of the outbreak.

The number of people who are not particularly old (say 40+), who don't have pre-existing medical conditions, who don't end up dead, but do have to spend two weeks hooked up to a ventilator in intensive care is very high. Much higher than flu. This kind of explains why the world has shut down and countries are building massive field hospitals as fast as they can.

I guess one way of looking at the figures is that the health interventions are keeping the death rates around the norm, so far.

[macstop]

When people die of COVID 19 they usually die of pneumonia?, when people die of Flu they usually die of pneumonia?, two different viruses the same out come, some must die of other things granted

look at the death rates in other things this is nowhere near any of them.

[Old_pie]

Expect to see a decrease in RTA and an increase in Suicides and Homicides. Surprised that Malaria figures, I suppose exotic holidays, so that should drop too, (plus all the folk taking chloroquine!!).

[ncfcog]

Yeah ncfcog and UTM both seem to be fair minded and switched on people, I'd be happy to trust them with interpretation of stats.

I started to look at some data this week but things are changing so quickly it's hard to keep up, plus I'm trying to keep a business afloat as well! I've put a datasheet together so will be happy to look at some up to date figures later and see what we can extrapolate from that. There is a theory that if the UK are following Italy on the same path we should hit our peak in two weeks with much fewer deaths, let's hope so. I'll try and have a look later.

[upthemaggies]

I started to look at some data this week but things are changing so quickly it's hard to keep up, plus I'm trying to keep a business afloat as well! I've put a datasheet together so will be happy to look at some up to date figures later and see what we can extrapolate from that. There is a theory that if the UK are following Italy on the same path we should hit our peak in two weeks with much fewer deaths, let's hope so. I'll try and have a look later.

We overtook Italy yesterday in comparison to where they were at the same stage.

[Old_pie]

I started to look at some data this week but things are changing so quickly it's hard to keep up, plus I'm trying to keep a business afloat as well! I've put a datasheet together so will be happy to look at some up to date figures later and see what we can extrapolate from that. There is a theory that if the UK are following Italy on the same path we should hit our peak in two weeks with much fewer deaths, let's hope so. I'll try and have a look later.

Seriously, my comment was 'tongue-in-cheek'. Concentrate on keeping yourself going. However if it all goes t1ts up then do as much analysis as we can absorb!!

I see face masks are now an "in thing". How come the scientists didn't know how far droplets from a sneeze or cough go before now? "Coughs and sneezes spread diseases". (NHS c1946 but never verified since!)