O/T:- ...Has the key to a coronavirus vaccine been staring us in the face?

[drillerpie]

A "simple yes or no"?........wow, if you followed your own advice then your verbose postings would dry up to virtually nothing....long live the power of diverse argument and opinion

Old so strike a blow for the righteously concise and just say yes or no as to whether you still stand by your claims.

[tarquinbeech]

The UK scientists at the briefings have said at various times that the UK is between 2 and 4 weeks behind Italy. You said two weeks ago that these levels were obscene. Do you still stand by that

Yes, I've noticed that the various politicians around the World are trying to keep their people calm by comparing their own figures to those of different nations.
If, and it's a huge IF, they were implying that the UK were 2 weeks behind the Italian death rate of 93, then they were correct.....but Italy has also, in that 2 weeks, moved on to 302 (so if I said "obscene" before, I must now state in fairness, 302 is three times the obscenity!)
If, and it's a huge IF, they are still implying that the UK is still 2 weeks behind the Italian death rate of 302, then I wonder if, and it's a massive IF, the UK ever gets to that level (I pray not) what will be the Italian figure of death rates then?
We can only wait and see...and pray.

[tarquinbeech]

Uh ohh, something tells me things are about to get sweary.

More distraction bait.

Not really....you are a creep, albeit a slightly intelligent one, that runs to head office if you get outsmarted.....I am attempting to remain calm, if I disappear, it means I have taken the mower out into the pastures to calm down.....I will return.

[drillerpie]

Yes, I've noticed that the various politicians around the World are trying to keep their people calm by comparing their own figures to those of different nations.
If, and it's a huge IF, they were implying that the UK were 2 weeks behind the Italian death rate of 93, then they were correct.....but Italy has also, in that 2 weeks, moved on to 302 (so if I said "obscene" before, I must now state in fairness, 302 is three times the obscenity!)
If, and it's a huge IF, they are still implying that the UK is still 2 weeks behind the Italian death rate of 302, then I wonder if, and it's a massive IF, the UK ever gets to that level (I pray not) what will be the Italian figure of death rates then?
We can only wait and see...and pray.

That's a lot of IFs for a very simple question.

Continually comparing total deaths divided by total population will always give worse results in the country where the virus arrived first.

I don't think anybody is going to be fooled by what you're doing here, but you've obviously decided that's the best strategy available to you, which speaks volumes.

[drillerpie]

Not really....you are a creep, albeit a slightly intelligent one, that runs to head office if you get outsmarted.....I am attempting to remain calm, if I disappear, it means I have taken the mower out into the pastures to calm down.....I will return.

Ok thanks for slightly intelligent.

I really don't want to make this personal, I'm just curious to know if you have revised your opinion or not, now that most of the disparaging remarks you made about Italy are also applicable to the UK.

[tarquinbeech]

That's a lot of IFs for a very simple question.

Continually comparing total deaths divided by total population will always give worse results in the country where the virus arrived first.

I don't think anybody is going to be fooled by what you're doing here, but you've obviously decided that's the best strategy available to you, which speaks volumes.

I'm confused....I'm answering your questions, but exactly the same as you did recently with Jackal, you are ridiculing my answers if you don't like them.

Let me state the bleedin' obvious and you see if you can disprove these statements:

Italy had three times the death-rate of the UK back on 25th March and I made a number of comments (it's a forum!)
Italy still has three times the death rate today.....one of my comments was "I know which country is safer".....that comment is statistically true now as it was then.
Will it be in the future....no idea

[tarquinbeech]

Ok thanks for slightly intelligent.

I really don't want to make this personal, I'm just curious to know if you have revised your opinion or not, now that most of the disparaging remarks you made about Italy are also applicable to the UK.

.......but they are not applicable to the UK!!!!.....YOU ARE STILL 3 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO DIE IN AN ITALIAN HOSPITAL, THIS IS THE SAME FIGURE AS IT WAS WAS 2 WEEKS AGO

As each day goes by, my argument gets stronger, not weaker.....it may change in another week or another month......and if it does then well done to the Italian government.....but it does not make me wrong at the time I typed those comments

[tarquinbeech]

That's a lot of IFs for a very simple question.

Continually comparing total deaths divided by total population will always give worse results in the country where the virus arrived first.

I don't think anybody is going to be fooled by what you're doing here, but you've obviously decided that's the best strategy available to you, which speaks volumes.

Of course it will, so the only figure that cannot be disproved is the final result ie the one on the day that covid is finally defeated.....which is why I kept typing IF when you mentioned this "2 weeks" political statement....I kept trying to give you a way out of the argument but you kept digging a bigger hole.

[drillerpie]

.......but they are not applicable to the UK!!!!.....YOU ARE STILL 3 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO DIE IN AN ITALIAN HOSPITAL, THIS IS THE SAME FIGURE AS IT WAS WAS 2 WEEKS AGO

As each day goes by, my argument gets stronger, not weaker.....it may change in another week or another month......and if it does then well done to the Italian government.....but it does not make me wrong at the time I typed those comments

I'm not sure if you're pretending not to get it or you genuinely don't get it, but either way this is remarkable.

So according to your logic, a coronavirus patient in Italy is three times more likely to die than one in the UK, despite the two countries following very similar curves a few weeks apart. Remarkable.

So before the first coronavirus death in the UK how much more likely was an Italian patient to die? Infinity?

[tarquinbeech]

I'm not sure if you're pretending not to get it or you genuinely don't get it, but either way this is remarkable.

So according to your logic, a coronavirus patient in Italy is three times more likely to die than one in the UK, despite the two countries following very similar curves a few weeks apart. Remarkable.

So before the first coronavirus death in the UK how much more likely was an Italian patient to die? Infinity?

Who said we are following the same curve?

....and if you can prove to me, and everyone else reading, that we are on the same curve, then what is this "2 weeks" or a "few weeks" that you keep talking about....according to me, and Wiki, Italy and the UK had their first cases on the same day
On 31 January, two members of a family of Chinese nationals staying in a hotel in York, one of whom studied at the University of York, became the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK.
On 31 January, the first two cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Rome. A Chinese couple, originally from Wuhan, who had arrived in Italy on 23 January via Milan Malpensa Airport, travelled from the airport to Verona, then to Parma, arriving in Rome on 28 January.

Then you started on about "curves" and "2-week lags".......but if both countries started at the same time, how come the Italians got over-run so quickly?